MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 7Héctor Rodríguez
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.344wOBA vs RHP.288xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.3projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 46% usage, 94.4 mph, +4.2″ arm side, +19.4″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .360 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 46%Splitter: 29% usage, 83.2 mph, +11.6″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .304 vs league .299 (about even).Splitter 29%Slider: 25% usage, 87.8 mph, +3.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Héctor Rodríguez: wOBA .362 vs league .357 (about even).Slider 25%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Héctor Rodríguez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Héctor Rodríguez's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 66.5 mph at -44°Single: 111.7 mph at -3°Single: 101.7 mph at -13°Out: 80.2 mph at 66°Double: 107.8 mph at 18°Home run: 108.8 mph at 27°Out: 100.1 mph at -1°Out: 85.8 mph at 27°Out: 74.6 mph at 7°Out: 87.9 mph at 39°Out: 89.4 mph at -23°Out: 88.8 mph at 61°Triple: 98.7 mph at 18°Out: 64.7 mph at 11°Out: 75.4 mph at -11°Out: 93.3 mph at 38°Out: 97.4 mph at 28°Out: 90.4 mph at 68°Out: 73.8 mph at 9°Out: 77.4 mph at -47°Out: 102.5 mph at 43°Out: 97.1 mph at 34°Out: 97.7 mph at 24°Out: 83.4 mph at 37°Single: 77.5 mph at -45°Out: 78.8 mph at 11°Out: 103.6 mph at -22°Out: 79.3 mph at 44°Out: 72.1 mph at 35°Out: 78.7 mph at -5°Out: 74.3 mph at -34°Out: 100.1 mph at -10°Out: 86.4 mph at -15°Single: 83.1 mph at 14°Out: 107.5 mph at 2°Single: 110.1 mph at -5°Single: 95.9 mph at -10°Out: 82.4 mph at 10°Single: 89.6 mph at 7°Single: 86.6 mph at 4°
38% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.8%54.7%-0.8
2+ total bases31.8%32.1%-0.3
Home run10.9%10.6%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Héctor Rodríguez hits
Where they meet

.292 xwOBA for Héctor Rodríguez in the spots Trey Yesavage throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (-16 points). His best spot against righties is up-right, and Trey Yesavage puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Trey Yesavage · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing3%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing7%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing3%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%17% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing17%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%22% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 63% per swing22%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 75% per swing9%
All · 367 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%22% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters22%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 192 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%7% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%12% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters12%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%44% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters44%9% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters9%
Splitter · 139 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%17% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters17%36% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters36%
Slider · 36 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Héctor Rodríguez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .364 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 14 pitches seen.296xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .565 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 15 pitches seen.371xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .626 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 10 pitches seen.354xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .214 on 3 PA) · league .342 · 20 pitches seen.316xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .209 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 20 pitches seen.315xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .109 on 7 PA) · league .321 · 12 pitches seen.243xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .228 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.276xwOBA .393 shrunk (raw .431 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 26 pitches seen.393xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .256 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 16 pitches seen.283xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .367 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 70 pitches seen.372xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 18 pitches seenxwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .204 on 22 PA) · league .263 · 78 pitches seen.225xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .198 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 55 pitches seen.236
vs RHP · 373 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 63% of 8 swings · league 22%63%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 20%31%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 10%15%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 9%6%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 28%39%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 31% of 39 swings · league 32%31%Whiff 38% of 29 swings · league 49%38%
vs RHP · 373 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 62%57%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 72%87%Swings at 80% of 10 pitches · league 66%80%Swings at 65% of 20 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 90% of 20 pitches · league 76%90%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 65%68%Swings at 81% of 26 pitches · league 68%81%Swings at 75% of 16 pitches · league 60%75%Swings at 26% of 70 pitches · league 24%26%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 34%56%Swings at 50% of 78 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 53% of 55 pitches · league 32%53%
vs RHP · 373 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Héctor Rodríguez against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball46%94.4+4″ / +19″.360.35518.6%17.3%20About league average vs these
Splitter29%83.2+12″ / +7″.304.29929.1%26.7%12About league average vs these
Slider25%87.8+3″ / +5″.362.35723.4%22.2%11About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Héctor Rodríguez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.250.250.500.316.27831.2%0.0%22.2%92.2111.718.2%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1134.206.206.382.249.26323.5%0.0%19.5%88.2111.77.7%34.6%30.8%
Last 30 G2678.301.346.575.403.31721.8%5.1%23.4%87.4115.28.9%32.1%30.4%
90 days35103.253.311.474.353.28923.3%6.8%24.8%88.0115.27.0%33.8%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 14%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.000100.0%0.0%50.0%–––––
Last 15 G820.200.200.200.180.16130.0%0.0%25.6%90.6110.10.0%42.9%21.4%
Last 30 G1839.179.179.256.190.16538.5%0.0%32.1%88.1110.14.2%41.7%25.0%
90 days2041.171.171.244.180.17536.6%0.0%31.8%87.4110.13.8%38.5%26.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 15%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.235.235.471.297.26235.3%0.0%25.0%92.2111.718.2%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1554.204.204.315.223.22525.9%0.0%21.7%89.0111.75.0%37.5%27.5%
Last 30 G30117.259.291.464.332.26627.4%3.4%26.2%87.6115.27.5%35.0%28.8%
90 days39144.228.271.404.304.25627.1%4.9%26.8%87.8115.26.2%35.1%28.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 97 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 14%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 7%
Héctor Rodríguez · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating7Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.302 / .257running 45 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter91.466.5-44.159Force out
Sep 25RHPFastball97.5111.7-3.381Single
Sep 25RHPSinker83.5101.7-13.257Single
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.480.266.006Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.8107.818.815Double
Sep 24RHPCurveball78.7108.8272.030Home run
Sep 22RHPChangeup84.0100.1-1.361Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.185.827.079Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup94.074.67.273Force out
Sep 18RHPChangeup87.087.939.005Out
Sep 18RHPCutter91.989.4-23.080Force out
Sep 17LHPFastball97.488.861.016Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422001
Sep 24426101
Sep 22400002
Sep 20100000
Sep 18400002
Sep 17313001
Sep 15300000
Sep 14300001
Sep 13400001
Sep 12411000

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.3%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%21.3%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.4%
Héctor Rodríguez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Héctor Rodríguez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.8%41.3%
Whiff%22.9%21.6%
Contact%77.1%78.4%
Chase%44.9%39.4%
wOBA.251.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.5%20.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.310
K%25.6%
BB%6.3%
Whiff%13.5%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV88.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

103 PA
wOBA.344
xwOBA vs this mix.288against pitches like his
RV/1000.40
Hard-hit%23.6%
K%23.7%
BB%5.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN5 days' rest
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.3%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 78% (red bars) · under: 22%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Héctor Rodríguez: every projection we've made →