MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · CIN · batting 5JJ Bleday
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedHot
.300wOBA vs RHP.326xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.2projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.2 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. JJ Bleday: wOBA .340 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 49%Splitter: 28% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. JJ Bleday: wOBA .265 vs league .276 (about even).Splitter 28%Slider: 24% usage, 86.9 mph, +2.9″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. JJ Bleday: wOBA .344 vs league .355 (about even).Slider 24%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is JJ Bleday's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

JJ Bleday's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 69.5 mph at -80°Out: 91.6 mph at 52°Out: 66.0 mph at 13°Out: 101.9 mph at 15°Out: 81.8 mph at 57°Single: 66.9 mph at 9°Out: 101.0 mph at -2°Single: 81.6 mph at 10°Out: 89.4 mph at 66°Home run: 103.4 mph at 36°Out: 96.5 mph at -2°Out: 68.4 mph at 83°Single: 105.5 mph at 16°Out: 96.9 mph at 3°Out: 73.7 mph at 85°Out: 67.6 mph at 3°Single: 88.2 mph at 16°Out: 95.7 mph at 38°Out: 105.7 mph at 8°Out: 76.2 mph at 72°Single: 89.1 mph at -24°Out: 91.4 mph at 60°Out: 93.4 mph at -23°Out: 90.4 mph at 32°Out: 87.4 mph at 64°Single: 95.8 mph at 12°Double: 103.5 mph at 15°Out: 96.1 mph at 39°Single: 74.6 mph at 25°Out: 81.4 mph at 0°Out: 97.3 mph at -2°Out: 98.9 mph at 22°Out: 84.2 mph at 2°Out: 46.9 mph at 2°Out: 97.9 mph at 36°Out: 90.5 mph at 75°Out: 79.4 mph at 60°Out: 95.6 mph at 44°Out: 73.7 mph at 31°Single: 101.9 mph at 9°
40% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.6%53.9%-1.3
2+ total bases31.4%31.9%-0.5
Home run12.3%11.7%+0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.8
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

JJ Bleday against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.2+5″ / +19″.340.35112.7%16.6%50About league average vs these
Splitter28%83.0+11″ / +7″.265.27636.6%29.8%20About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider24%86.9+3″ / +4″.344.35526.2%24.1%18About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
JJ Bleday · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.222.222.222.200.20011.1%0.0%11.8%82.8101.00.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1228.115.179.115.146.22928.6%7.1%26.8%88.3105.70.0%38.9%38.9%
Last 30 G2767.190.284.362.285.34222.4%10.4%23.3%89.3106.111.4%43.2%47.7%
90 days73220.197.309.335.298.33622.3%13.6%23.2%88.0108.28.6%37.4%39.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 139 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 23%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.286.375.714.450.4420.0%12.5%9.1%90.2105.514.3%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G1025.273.360.455.358.32320.0%12.0%23.8%86.3105.55.9%41.2%29.4%
Last 30 G2351.217.294.304.274.27921.6%9.8%26.4%83.5106.72.9%25.7%37.1%
90 days4290.203.300.342.290.28824.4%12.2%28.1%84.2106.73.5%28.1%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 25%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 21%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.250.294.438.318.3145.9%5.9%10.7%86.3105.56.7%40.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1553.188.264.271.246.27324.5%9.4%25.5%87.3105.72.9%40.0%34.3%
Last 30 G30118.202.288.337.280.31522.0%10.2%24.6%86.7106.77.6%35.4%43.0%
90 days78310.199.306.337.296.32222.9%13.2%24.6%86.9108.27.1%34.7%38.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 196 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 24%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 18%
JJ Bleday · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches22trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.296 / .331running 34 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSplitter88.169.5-80.221Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.191.652.009Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.666.013.243Out
Sep 24LHPSlider81.8101.915.679Out
Sep 23LHPSlider80.681.857.042Out
Sep 22RHPSinker92.466.99.176Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup84.5101.0-2.324Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.181.610.458Single
Sep 22RHPFastball92.289.466.007Out
Sep 20LHPFastball95.6103.436.959Home run
Sep 20RHPFastball95.696.5-2.365Out
Sep 20LHPSweeper81.968.483.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400000
Sep 23100000
Sep 22422000
Sep 20414110
Sep 19411001
Sep 18411011
Sep 16411000
Sep 15300000
Sep 14300011
Sep 13411012

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.0%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%19.0%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.0%
JJ Bleday bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
JJ Bleday with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.8%41.0%
Whiff%22.6%21.3%
Contact%77.4%78.7%
Chase%31.1%39.6%
wOBA.232.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.2%21.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.300
K%23.6%
BB%12.6%
Whiff%11.5%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%22.4%
Avg EV87.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.326against pitches like his
RV/100-0.31
Hard-hit%23.6%
K%22.7%
BB%12.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 24.1%24%≤34 strikeouts: 16.7%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 15.1%15%67 strikeouts: 11.1%11%78 strikeouts: 7.3%7%89+ strikeouts: 8.3%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 58%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.JJ Bleday: every projection we've made →