MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 5Josh Smith
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.329wOBA vs RHP.285xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%2.1trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Josh Smith: wOBA .350 vs league .348 (about even).Sinker 30%Slider: 27% usage, 85.4 mph, -1.8″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Josh Smith: wOBA .319 vs league .317 (about even).Slider 27%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.9 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Josh Smith: wOBA .293 vs league .292 (about even).Changeup 20%Fastball: 18% usage, 94.2 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +13.1″ rise. Josh Smith: wOBA .363 vs league .361 (about even).Fastball 18%Curveball: 5% usage, 81.0 mph, -11.3″ arm side, -12.8″ rise. Josh Smith: wOBA .303 vs league .302 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Josh Smith's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Josh Smith's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 86.3 mph at 6°Out: 83.1 mph at 50°Out: 45.1 mph at -61°Out: 97.0 mph at 5°Out: 70.1 mph at 30°Out: 89.0 mph at 57°Out: 61.7 mph at 55°Out: 96.2 mph at 19°Out: 77.9 mph at 51°Double: 98.3 mph at 15°Out: 98.0 mph at 21°Out: 95.1 mph at 42°Out: 89.1 mph at 2°Out: 74.7 mph at -19°Out: 76.7 mph at 29°Single: 87.0 mph at 6°Out: 100.5 mph at -25°Single: 67.4 mph at 31°Home run: 99.1 mph at 34°Out: 71.6 mph at 2°Out: 71.5 mph at 1°Out: 87.8 mph at 35°Home run: 99.7 mph at 39°Out: 92.0 mph at 54°Out: 88.2 mph at 30°Home run: 103.5 mph at 36°Single: 82.1 mph at 22°Out: 87.1 mph at 26°Out: 55.4 mph at -22°Out: 75.3 mph at 14°Single: 83.0 mph at 8°Home run: 105.6 mph at 21°Out: 31.6 mph at -17°Out: 49.7 mph at 18°Out: 95.1 mph at 1°Single: 91.9 mph at -13°Out: 41.7 mph at -50°Out: 49.9 mph at -57°Single: 63.5 mph at 34°Single: 103.2 mph at 12°
30% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.9%52.5%+2.4
2+ total bases31.9%29.7%+2.2
Home run9.9%8.6%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Josh Smith against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%93.7+17″ / +7″.350.34813.7%12.4%22About league average vs these
Slider27%85.4-2″ / -1″.319.31733.5%31.4%10About league average vs these
Changeup20%86.9+17″ / +1″.293.29227.2%26.7%18About league average vs these
Fastball18%94.2+10″ / +13″.363.36116.9%15.4%28About league average vs these
Curveball5%81.0-11″ / -13″.303.30228.6%26.6%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Josh Smith · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.000.000.000.000.18136.4%0.0%17.2%81.297.00.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1436.156.222.375.261.23730.6%5.6%19.3%86.2100.50.0%38.1%28.6%
Last 30 G2971.217.324.483.364.30132.4%12.7%25.5%85.1105.68.1%35.1%37.8%
90 days39101.213.297.449.334.28327.7%9.9%23.6%85.5105.68.2%31.1%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.10650.0%0.0%25.0%45.145.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G44.000.000.000.000.15325.0%0.0%16.7%68.689.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G811.000.000.000.044.22027.3%0.0%31.2%60.297.70.0%12.5%12.5%
90 days1418.067.125.067.125.18727.8%5.6%24.1%66.797.70.0%8.3%8.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 83%Line drive 0%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.000.000.000.16838.5%0.0%18.2%76.097.00.0%14.3%14.3%
Last 15 G1540.139.200.333.235.22830.0%5.0%19.1%84.0100.50.0%33.3%25.0%
Last 30 G3082.188.288.420.327.29231.7%11.0%26.1%80.7105.66.7%31.1%33.3%
90 days41119.192.274.394.305.27027.7%9.2%23.7%82.4105.66.8%27.4%30.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 16%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
Josh Smith · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating12Poor
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.296 / .266running 29 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPCutter91.886.36.417Out
Sep 23RHPSlider89.283.150.019Out
Sep 23LHPSinker92.745.1-61.211Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball85.597.05.552Out
Sep 21RHPChangeup85.970.130.800Out
Sep 21RHPFastball96.089.057.005Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.361.755.017Out
Sep 18RHPFastball90.096.219.354Out
Sep 18RHPSinker93.977.951.028Out
Sep 16RHPChangeup85.598.315.758Double
Sep 16RHPChangeup86.898.021.371Out
Sep 16RHPSlider86.495.142.033Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23400001
Sep 23200001
Sep 21400001
Sep 20200001
Sep 19100001
Sep 18400011
Sep 16412000
Sep 15300001
Sep 14200011
Sep 12311001

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.0%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%16.9%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.0%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.6%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.1%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%19.3%
Josh Smith bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Josh Smith with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.4%41.0%
Whiff%19.3%21.3%
Contact%80.7%78.7%
Chase%44.5%39.6%
wOBA.249.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.9%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.316
K%23.5%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%3.9%
Hard-hit%20.1%
Avg EV84.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

101 PA
wOBA.329
xwOBA vs this mix.285against pitches like his
RV/100-0.14
Hard-hit%19.3%
K%27.3%
BB%9.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.3%59%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.4%6%67 strikeouts: 2.9%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Josh Smith: every projection we've made →