MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 8Myles Straw
Bats rightTalent grade CContactCold
.309wOBA vs RHP.300xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Myles Straw: wOBA .344 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 30%Slider: 27% usage, 85.4 mph, -1.8″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Myles Straw: wOBA .285 vs league .288 (about even).Slider 27%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.9 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Myles Straw: wOBA .302 vs league .305 (about even).Changeup 20%Fastball: 18% usage, 94.2 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +13.1″ rise. Myles Straw: wOBA .355 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 18%Curveball: 5% usage, 81.0 mph, -11.3″ arm side, -12.8″ rise. Myles Straw: wOBA .283 vs league .286 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Myles Straw's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Myles Straw's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.0 mph at 24°Out: 89.4 mph at 53°Single: 94.6 mph at -7°Out: 85.6 mph at -14°Single: 106.1 mph at -1°Out: 85.8 mph at 49°Out: 91.2 mph at 25°Single: 65.4 mph at 19°Out: 90.6 mph at 57°Out: 89.3 mph at 49°Out: 97.8 mph at 18°Double: 92.9 mph at 19°Out: 84.7 mph at 73°Single: 98.0 mph at 11°Single: 86.9 mph at 15°Single: 91.7 mph at 19°Out: 54.9 mph at 5°Out: 85.3 mph at -8°Out: 97.5 mph at -12°Out: 89.0 mph at 24°Out: 63.2 mph at -24°Out: 87.6 mph at 38°Out: 79.6 mph at 24°Out: 75.1 mph at 51°Out: 90.3 mph at 49°Out: 90.4 mph at 43°Out: 85.4 mph at 45°Single: 98.2 mph at 13°Out: 88.3 mph at 50°Out: 81.9 mph at 50°Single: 86.1 mph at -31°Out: 85.7 mph at 59°Single: 100.7 mph at -6°Out: 36.6 mph at -49°Single: 95.6 mph at 3°Out: 96.5 mph at 4°Single: 86.3 mph at -19°Double: 97.1 mph at 18°Out: 100.5 mph at 13°Out: 86.8 mph at 56°
25% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.9%57.9%+2.0
2+ total bases31.6%29.9%+1.7
Home run5.7%5.1%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Myles Straw against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%93.7+17″ / +7″.344.3475.5%10.9%32About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider27%85.4-2″ / -1″.285.28825.4%34.6%8Little history vs this shape
Changeup20%86.9+17″ / +1″.302.30517.3%25.3%17About league average vs these
Fastball18%94.2+10″ / +13″.355.3588.2%15.8%31About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball5%81.0-11″ / -13″.283.28616.8%23.7%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Myles Straw · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.182.182.182.164.13927.3%0.0%12.5%87.897.80.0%12.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1225.292.320.333.294.24220.0%4.0%10.6%85.298.20.0%15.8%47.4%
Last 30 G2753.239.327.283.323.30115.1%11.3%10.3%84.9100.50.0%23.1%30.8%
90 days5096.233.298.337.308.30412.5%7.3%10.0%84.9108.30.0%26.3%39.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 76 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 29%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.333.500.333.400.2850.0%25.0%0.0%95.3106.10.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G1215.167.333.167.320.2350.0%20.0%4.5%89.8106.10.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 30 G2032.370.469.519.462.2986.2%15.6%6.1%86.6106.14.0%32.0%28.0%
90 days4784.237.298.355.311.26211.9%8.3%11.0%83.6106.14.5%23.9%37.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 18%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.214.267.214.227.17820.0%6.7%10.7%89.9106.10.0%18.2%36.4%
Last 15 G1540.250.325.278.304.23912.5%10.0%8.7%87.0106.10.0%16.1%35.5%
Last 30 G3085.288.381.370.376.30011.8%12.9%8.8%85.6106.11.6%26.6%29.7%
90 days65180.235.298.346.309.28412.2%7.8%10.5%84.3108.32.1%25.2%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 143 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 24%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 13%
Myles Straw · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating31Below average
Last 100 pitches18trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.303 / .297results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPFastball91.793.024.140Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball72.989.453.008Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.394.6-7.254Single
Sep 23RHPSplitter89.785.6-14.082Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.6106.1-1.420Single
Sep 21RHPFastball94.285.849.016Out
Sep 21RHPSinker92.791.225.165Out
Sep 20RHPSlider90.665.419.457Single
Sep 20LHPFastball93.590.657.016Out
Sep 19LHPFastball90.089.349.005Out
Sep 19RHPSplitter87.697.818.408Out
Sep 18RHPCutter89.192.919.450Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23311000
Sep 23411002
Sep 21200000
Sep 20311010
Sep 19300001
Sep 18323000
Sep 16422000
Sep 15100000
Sep 14200000
Sep 13400010

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.0%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%16.9%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.0%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.6%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.1%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%19.3%
Myles Straw bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Myles Straw with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.7%42.4%
Whiff%18.9%22.2%
Contact%81.1%77.8%
Chase%36.0%39.8%
wOBA.230.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.1%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.316
K%13.7%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%5.8%
Barrel%2.1%
Hard-hit%20.6%
Avg EV84.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

96 PA
wOBA.309
xwOBA vs this mix.300against pitches like his
RV/100-0.49
Hard-hit%21.3%
K%13.5%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.3%59%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.4%6%67 strikeouts: 2.9%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Myles Straw: every projection we've made →