MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 1Nathan Lukes
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedHot
.311wOBA vs RHP.295xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .342 vs league .348 (about even).Sinker 30%Slider: 27% usage, 85.4 mph, -1.8″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .311 vs league .317 (about even).Slider 27%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.9 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .286 vs league .292 (about even).Changeup 20%Fastball: 18% usage, 94.2 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +13.1″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .355 vs league .361 (about even).Fastball 18%Curveball: 5% usage, 81.0 mph, -11.3″ arm side, -12.8″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .296 vs league .302 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nathan Lukes's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nathan Lukes's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 100.1 mph at 10°Out: 101.1 mph at 22°Single: 97.1 mph at 8°Out: 97.3 mph at -17°Single: 90.3 mph at 1°Out: 84.2 mph at 7°Out: 88.7 mph at 10°Out: 72.7 mph at 46°Out: 79.7 mph at -31°Single: 94.8 mph at 10°Out: 96.2 mph at -9°Out: 98.4 mph at 18°Single: 98.7 mph at 4°Single: 102.5 mph at -2°Out: 94.1 mph at 29°Out: 96.7 mph at 30°Out: 58.9 mph at -62°Out: 99.2 mph at 26°Out: 98.1 mph at 4°Single: 43.2 mph at -58°Out: 61.9 mph at 73°Out: 24.4 mph at -62°Out: 66.7 mph at -44°Single: 63.9 mph at -37°Double: 97.3 mph at 24°Out: 87.5 mph at 9°Out: 92.2 mph at 29°Out: 101.1 mph at 19°Single: 87.6 mph at -11°Out: 75.1 mph at -6°Single: 69.1 mph at 33°Out: 81.6 mph at 37°Out: 91.8 mph at 23°Single: 83.9 mph at -18°Single: 90.6 mph at 2°Out: 73.8 mph at -6°Out: 68.6 mph at -13°Out: 94.9 mph at -23°Single: 68.2 mph at 27°Out: 75.8 mph at -18°
33% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.7%66.6%+2.1
2+ total bases39.6%37.4%+2.3
Home run9.9%8.4%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Nathan Lukes against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%93.7+17″ / +7″.342.3487.9%12.4%46About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider27%85.4-2″ / -1″.311.31721.4%31.4%17About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup20%86.9+17″ / +1″.286.29215.4%26.7%29About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball18%94.2+10″ / +13″.355.3619.7%15.4%75About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball5%81.0-11″ / -13″.296.30217.6%26.6%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nathan Lukes · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G415.308.333.308.287.3976.7%6.7%7.4%92.5101.10.0%53.8%53.8%
Last 15 G1340.270.300.297.269.28215.0%5.0%8.5%87.1101.13.1%34.4%40.6%
Last 30 G2886.312.349.450.359.32514.0%4.7%10.9%89.0105.05.8%42.0%39.1%
90 days71225.268.318.376.318.29912.9%6.7%12.4%86.6106.13.9%33.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 180 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 19%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.500.600.500.500.4100.0%20.0%10.0%87.1102.50.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G511.556.600.556.610.4820.0%9.1%5.0%74.7102.50.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 30 G1223.381.409.571.466.2718.7%4.3%9.8%78.9102.50.0%20.0%30.0%
90 days3055.245.288.347.308.27416.4%3.6%10.8%79.9102.50.0%16.3%30.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 65%Line drive 16%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.353.400.353.340.4005.0%10.0%8.1%91.3102.50.0%52.9%47.1%
Last 15 G1551.326.360.348.337.32211.8%5.9%7.8%84.2102.52.4%33.3%38.1%
Last 30 G30109.327.361.475.381.31412.8%4.6%10.6%86.7105.04.5%37.1%37.1%
90 days73280.264.313.370.316.29413.6%6.1%12.1%85.3106.13.1%30.0%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 223 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 5%
Nathan Lukes · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating40Below average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.303 / .307results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.3100.110.754Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.7101.122.675Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.797.18.627Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.497.3-17.146Fielder's choice
Sep 23LHPSinker93.190.31.241Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.984.27.334Out
Sep 23RHPSlider88.288.710.476Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball72.772.746.203Out
Sep 21RHPCutter89.179.7-31.054Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.494.810.689Single
Sep 21RHPSplitter90.196.2-9.227Double play
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.398.418.408Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23511001
Sep 23422000
Sep 21411010
Sep 20522010
Sep 19200000
Sep 18200000
Sep 16411001
Sep 15311001
Sep 14412001
Sep 13100010

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.0%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%16.9%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.0%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.6%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.1%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%19.3%
Nathan Lukes bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nathan Lukes with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%30.8%41.0%
Whiff%15.0%21.3%
Contact%85.0%78.7%
Chase%41.0%39.6%
wOBA.254.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes14.8%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.318
K%14.2%
BB%6.3%
Whiff%6.8%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%24.4%
Avg EV85.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

222 PA
wOBA.311
xwOBA vs this mix.295against pitches like his
RV/100-0.54
Hard-hit%26.6%
K%14.1%
BB%5.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.3%59%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.4%6%67 strikeouts: 2.9%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nathan Lukes: every projection we've made →