MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 6Sean Keys
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.300wOBA vs RHP.281xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.1projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 29% usage, 93.0 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Sean Keys: wOBA .350 vs league .355 (about even).Sinker 29%Slider: 27% usage, 85.2 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -1.1″ rise. Sean Keys: wOBA .308 vs league .313 (about even).Slider 27%Fastball: 22% usage, 93.7 mph, +10.3″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Sean Keys: wOBA .358 vs league .364 (about even).Fastball 22%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.5 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Sean Keys: wOBA .298 vs league .303 (about even).Changeup 20%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sean Keys's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Sean Keys's last 34 balls in playHit (10)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 66.9 mph at -18°Out: 67.9 mph at -13°Out: 72.6 mph at -45°Single: 95.5 mph at 16°Out: 85.8 mph at 9°Out: 102.1 mph at 24°Out: 88.6 mph at 25°Double: 98.7 mph at 18°Out: 83.5 mph at -7°Out: 105.0 mph at 8°Home run: 103.5 mph at 36°Single: 71.1 mph at 22°Out: 44.0 mph at -55°Single: 105.9 mph at -6°Out: 48.6 mph at 29°Out: 98.5 mph at 29°Out: 91.9 mph at 24°Out: 97.0 mph at -11°Out: 98.6 mph at 35°Out: 96.2 mph at 74°Single: 81.9 mph at -11°Single: 108.5 mph at 10°Out: 69.4 mph at 49°Out: 89.0 mph at 17°Out: 103.9 mph at -5°Out: 66.4 mph at 44°Out: 99.1 mph at 22°Double: 103.9 mph at 17°Single: 97.2 mph at -8°Out: 92.4 mph at -5°Home run: 95.6 mph at 34°Out: 105.3 mph at -18°Out: 103.3 mph at 18°Out: 86.3 mph at 75°
53% hit 95+ mph44% in the sweet spot29% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.5%57.0%+3.5
2+ total bases36.4%33.1%+3.2
Home run11.8%10.1%+1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Sean Keys hits
Where they meet

.280 xwOBA for Sean Keys in the spots Rhett Lowder throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (-24 points). His best spot against righties is up and left, outside, and Rhett Lowder puts 10% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Rhett Lowder · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing6%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing6%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing10%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%17% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing17%25% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing25%
All · 783 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters43% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters43%19% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Changeup · 193 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%16% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters16%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 192 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%
Sinker · 179 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%54% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters54%
Slider · 173 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%11% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33%36% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters36%
Curveball · 45 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Sean Keys · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 9 pitches seenxwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .936 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 5 pitches seen.355xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .368 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 10 pitches seen.284xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .367 on 5 PA) · league .342 · 12 pitches seen.349xwOBA .369 shrunk (raw .334 on 6 PA) · league .386 · 16 pitches seen.369xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .190 on 3 PA) · league .321 · 9 pitches seen.295xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .400 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 11 pitches seen.335xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .136 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 16 pitches seen.272xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .035 on 3 PA) · league .292 · 10 pitches seen.241xwOBA .446 shrunk (raw .651 on 4 PA) · league .377 · 36 pitches seen.446xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 6 pitches seen.253xwOBA .204 shrunk (raw .063 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 35 pitches seen.204xwOBA .221 shrunk (raw .163 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 49 pitches seen.221
vs RHP · 224 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 13%31%Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 17%50%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 28%14%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 24%40%Whiff 36% of 14 swings · league 32%36%Whiff 64% of 22 swings · league 49%64%
vs RHP · 224 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 72%40%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 81% of 16 pitches · league 76%81%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 65%82%Swings at 81% of 16 pitches · league 68%81%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 60%60%Swings at 19% of 36 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 34%83%Swings at 40% of 35 pitches · league 40%40%Swings at 45% of 49 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 224 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Sean Keys against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker29%93.0+17″ / +7″.350.35515.5%14.1%12About league average vs these
Slider27%85.2-2″ / -1″.308.31338.5%31.9%7Little history vs this shape
Fastball22%93.7+10″ / +14″.358.36418.2%16.6%12About league average vs these
Changeup20%86.5+17″ / +0″.298.30331.5%28.0%6Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sean Keys · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.182.286.273.318.35314.3%7.1%26.7%86.7105.010.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1434.233.294.367.343.29829.4%5.9%23.0%86.4108.514.3%47.6%52.4%
Last 30 G2054.200.241.360.293.26333.3%3.7%27.1%88.7108.59.1%51.5%45.5%
90 days2054.200.241.360.293.26333.3%3.7%27.1%88.7108.59.1%51.5%45.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 30%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G22.000.500.000.350.6180.0%50.0%0.0%98.698.60.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 30 G33.000.333.000.233.41233.3%33.3%0.0%98.698.60.0%100.0%0.0%
90 days33.000.333.000.233.41233.3%33.3%0.0%98.698.60.0%100.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 1 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 0%Fly ball 100%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.182.286.273.318.35314.3%7.1%26.7%86.7105.010.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1536.226.306.355.343.31627.8%8.3%20.7%86.9108.513.6%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2157.192.246.346.289.27133.3%5.3%25.0%88.9108.58.8%52.9%44.1%
90 days2157.192.246.346.289.27133.3%5.3%25.0%88.9108.58.8%52.9%44.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 29%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 6%
FormNormal
Contact rating49Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.291 / .315running 24 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSlider87.966.9-18.035Error
Sep 23RHPCurveball85.367.9-13.054Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball84.672.6-45.158Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter86.795.516.636Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup86.685.89.383Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.6102.1241.020Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball83.188.625.087Sac fly
Sep 20RHPCurveball80.898.718.393Double
Sep 20RHPSweeper85.683.5-7.104Out
Sep 18RHPFastball86.7105.08.642Out
Sep 4RHPCurveball80.6103.536.959Home run
Sep 3RHPSweeper82.071.122.877Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23411000
Sep 23100000
Sep 21400002
Sep 20412010
Sep 18100000
Sep 11100001
Sep 6200002
Sep 4114100
Sep 3511012
Sep 2111000

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.4%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%17.7%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.3%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.4%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.7%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%20.7%
Sean Keys bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sean Keys with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.2%41.3%
Whiff%25.1%21.6%
Contact%74.9%78.4%
Chase%42.0%39.4%
wOBA.240.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.2%21.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.310
K%25.3%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%11.1%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%27.2%
Avg EV88.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

54 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.281against pitches like his
RV/100-0.57
Hard-hit%29.7%
K%29.9%
BB%6.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR6 days' rest
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.4%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sean Keys: every projection we've made →