MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · KC · batting 9Isaac Collins
Switch hitterTalent grade DBalancedCold
.298wOBA vs RHP.277xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · CLETanner Bibee
Throws rightBTB Stuff 96Trending Down
3.7projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Tanner Bibee's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 25% usage, 93.9 mph, +4.2″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Isaac Collins: wOBA .352 vs league .361 (about even).Fastball 25%Cutter: 23% usage, 85.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +0.1″ rise. Isaac Collins: wOBA .311 vs league .320 (about even).Cutter 23%Sinker: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +7.9″ rise. Isaac Collins: wOBA .345 vs league .354 (about even).Sinker 19%Changeup: 14% usage, 80.6 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Isaac Collins: wOBA .274 vs league .283 (about even).Changeup 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 78.1 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Isaac Collins: wOBA .305 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 12%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.0 mph, -16.6″ arm side, -1.7″ rise. Isaac Collins: wOBA .306 vs league .315 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Isaac Collins's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Isaac Collins's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 70.2 mph at 7°Out: 76.1 mph at -64°Out: 81.9 mph at 44°Out: 70.9 mph at -29°Out: 69.4 mph at 68°Out: 53.8 mph at 60°Out: 95.5 mph at 2°Single: 95.5 mph at 6°Out: 68.7 mph at 55°Out: 64.8 mph at 68°Out: 104.3 mph at -5°Double: 103.2 mph at 15°Out: 39.3 mph at -67°Out: 103.2 mph at -5°Out: 82.9 mph at -1°Single: 101.0 mph at 9°Out: 82.2 mph at -16°Out: 90.7 mph at -6°Out: 51.5 mph at -77°Out: 76.0 mph at 1°Out: 82.8 mph at 48°Out: 91.5 mph at 30°Out: 99.6 mph at 0°Out: 77.4 mph at -4°Out: 70.5 mph at 1°Out: 96.6 mph at -1°Out: 94.4 mph at 25°Out: 83.5 mph at 60°Out: 48.2 mph at 40°Out: 58.2 mph at -68°Out: 76.9 mph at 51°Out: 77.5 mph at -36°Double: 105.9 mph at 3°Out: 79.1 mph at 2°Out: 74.2 mph at 5°Single: 101.8 mph at -19°Out: 68.2 mph at 84°Double: 97.8 mph at 17°Out: 95.3 mph at 7°Double: 91.9 mph at 19°
30% hit 95+ mph15% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.4%48.6%+1.8
2+ total bases23.9%23.1%+0.8
Home run4.2%4.8%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Isaac Collins against each of Tanner Bibee's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball25%93.9+4″ / +15″.352.36110.9%14.8%53About league average vs these
Cutter23%85.1-7″ / +0″.311.32022.1%28.1%13About league average vs these
Sinker19%92.7+15″ / +8″.345.35410.9%14.0%40About league average vs these
Changeup14%80.6+12″ / +12″.274.28326.9%30.2%9About league average vs these
Curveball12%78.1-14″ / -8″.305.31425.3%30.2%7Little history vs this shape
Sweeper8%82.0-17″ / -2″.306.31519.4%23.8%8Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Isaac Collins · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G310.000.200.000.140.19660.0%10.0%26.3%73.276.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1132.077.250.115.198.23640.6%15.6%23.5%80.3103.20.0%30.8%15.4%
Last 30 G2673.131.274.180.228.23828.8%15.1%15.7%84.9110.10.0%32.5%20.0%
90 days60170.201.300.336.296.27324.1%11.8%17.1%87.9110.11.9%42.6%31.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 108 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 19%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G33.000.000.000.000.00566.7%0.0%40.0%81.981.90.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G913.125.417.125.325.33115.4%30.8%18.8%76.7104.30.0%28.6%0.0%
Last 30 G1524.235.391.294.333.35016.7%20.8%19.4%82.4105.96.7%33.3%20.0%
90 days3767.182.303.309.288.27817.9%13.4%20.2%82.8110.46.8%25.0%20.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 16%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 21%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.154.000.108.15261.5%7.7%29.2%76.181.90.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1545.088.295.118.233.26233.3%20.0%22.4%79.1104.30.0%30.0%10.0%
Last 30 G3097.154.302.205.253.26525.8%16.5%16.5%84.2110.11.8%32.7%20.0%
90 days69237.196.301.328.294.27422.4%12.2%18.0%86.4110.43.3%37.5%28.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 152 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 18%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 15%
Isaac Collins · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating18Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.291 / .279results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball97.870.27.219Double play
Sep 23RHPSinker95.276.1-64.310Out
Sep 20LHPFastball97.881.944.016Out
Sep 17RHPCurveball82.270.9-29.051Out
Sep 17RHPFastball93.969.468.003Out
Sep 17RHPCutter91.053.860.000Out
Sep 16RHPFastball92.495.52.415Out
Sep 16LHPSinker92.195.56.484Single
Sep 13LHPCutter90.668.755.046Out
Sep 13LHPSinker92.864.868.000Out
Sep 12LHPSinker100.5104.3-5.364Out
Sep 11RHPFastball91.0103.215.675Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300002
Sep 23400012
Sep 20100000
Sep 19400003
Sep 18100001
Sep 17300000
Sep 16411011
Sep 15300012
Sep 13400020
Sep 12100000

Two strikes

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Tanner Bibee with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball25%24%11.5%11.3%18.0%
Cutter23%21%25.5%23.5%17.9%
Changeup14%20%20.9%17.7%18.6%
Sinker19%16%3.1%14.5%16.9%
Sweeper8%11%8.0%6.8%19.3%
Curveball12%8%10.5%12.5%20.1%
Isaac Collins bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Isaac Collins with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.7%41.0%
Whiff%19.9%21.3%
Contact%80.1%78.7%
Chase%35.6%39.6%
wOBA.258.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.4%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.319
K%22.3%
BB%12.2%
Whiff%7.8%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%24.3%
Avg EV86.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

170 PA
wOBA.298
xwOBA vs this mix.277against pitches like his
RV/100-0.44
Hard-hit%26.6%
K%23.8%
BB%12.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE vs KC
3.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 24.3 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 49.3%49%≤34 strikeouts: 19.2%19%45 strikeouts: 14.3%14%56 strikeouts: 8.8%9%67 strikeouts: 4.8%5%78 strikeouts: 2.2%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.4%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%6.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff96
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball25%7693.96.0%
Cutter23%12185.212.4%
Sinker19%9492.74.3%
Changeup14%10580.616.7%
Curveball12%7878.25.5%
Sweeper8%9881.97.4%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19958%7%40%.518
Sep 139627%16%31%.248
Sep 8625%2%30%.412

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Isaac Collins: every projection we've made →