MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · CLE · batting 8Patrick Bailey
Switch hitterTalent grade DBalancedCold
.327wOBA vs RHP.329xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · KCMichael Wacha
Throws rightBTB Stuff 88Trending Down
4.3projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael Wacha's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.2 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Patrick Bailey: wOBA .359 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 28%Changeup: 27% usage, 80.6 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Patrick Bailey: wOBA .278 vs league .278 (about even).Changeup 27%Cutter: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Patrick Bailey: wOBA .377 vs league .376 (about even).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 93.1 mph, +11.6″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Patrick Bailey: wOBA .363 vs league .363 (about even).Sinker 13%Curveball: 10% usage, 75.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, -12.0″ rise. Patrick Bailey: wOBA .315 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 84.6 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +2.7″ rise. Patrick Bailey: wOBA .352 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Patrick Bailey's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Patrick Bailey's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.5 mph at 40°Out: 73.2 mph at -4°Out: 107.7 mph at 14°Out: 101.7 mph at 10°Single: 68.3 mph at 24°Single: 100.2 mph at 17°Out: 78.2 mph at -37°Out: 89.8 mph at -21°Out: 97.3 mph at 48°Single: 109.5 mph at 18°Out: 51.7 mph at -66°Out: 92.1 mph at 29°Single: 101.5 mph at 13°Out: 84.3 mph at 5°Double: 96.7 mph at 25°Out: 94.1 mph at -33°Single: 86.8 mph at 11°Out: 101.9 mph at 7°Out: 21.8 mph at 53°Single: 70.9 mph at 32°Out: 85.9 mph at 56°Out: 63.1 mph at -44°Out: 71.1 mph at 6°Single: 96.2 mph at 10°Out: 94.6 mph at 45°Out: 96.4 mph at -26°Single: 102.4 mph at 10°Single: 75.9 mph at 19°Home run: 103.5 mph at 31°Out: 100.3 mph at -2°Out: 92.4 mph at 29°Out: 40.6 mph at -12°Single: 94.5 mph at 14°Single: 102.9 mph at 13°Out: 90.5 mph at 23°Single: 99.8 mph at 13°Out: 84.1 mph at 61°Home run: 97.5 mph at 31°Out: 95.0 mph at 64°Double: 106.1 mph at 23°
48% hit 95+ mph53% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.3%54.8%+2.5
2+ total bases31.9%30.2%+1.7
Home run8.9%9.0%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.6
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Patrick Bailey against each of Michael Wacha's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.2+6″ / +18″.359.35818.4%15.5%24About league average vs these
Changeup27%80.6+13″ / +7″.278.27826.7%28.0%7Little history vs this shape
Cutter14%89.6-2″ / +10″.377.37620.7%17.2%12About league average vs these
Sinker13%93.1+12″ / +15″.363.36319.2%15.9%34About league average vs these
Curveball10%75.4-10″ / -12″.315.31430.6%25.0%5Little history vs this shape
Slider8%84.6-3″ / +3″.352.35232.5%26.5%11About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Patrick Bailey · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.154.214.154.179.21750.0%7.1%40.0%89.2101.70.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1338.324.378.441.369.34831.6%5.3%29.7%84.9109.58.7%39.1%56.5%
Last 30 G2885.267.345.413.343.35030.6%9.4%24.8%87.3109.58.2%40.8%55.1%
90 days47141.254.317.429.330.33427.7%7.8%25.5%88.4109.59.0%43.8%41.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 89 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 29%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G13.000.000.000.000.3940.0%0.0%0.0%94.1107.70.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G913.000.000.000.000.17838.5%0.0%17.2%94.9107.70.0%62.5%25.0%
Last 30 G1522.105.227.158.193.31222.7%13.6%20.0%97.8107.70.0%78.6%28.6%
90 days2229.130.250.174.216.30824.1%13.8%20.4%92.2107.70.0%61.1%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 18 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 28%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.125.176.125.147.24841.2%5.9%32.3%90.9107.70.0%55.6%44.4%
Last 15 G1551.234.280.319.273.30433.3%3.9%25.8%87.5109.56.5%45.2%48.4%
Last 30 G30107.234.321.362.312.34229.0%10.3%23.7%89.6109.56.3%49.2%49.2%
90 days49170.235.305.389.311.32927.1%8.8%24.6%89.1109.57.5%46.7%41.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 107 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 29%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 10%
Patrick Bailey · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches11trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.302 / .331running 29 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball91.4101.540.376Out
Sep 24LHPCurveball75.373.2-4.057Force out
Sep 24LHPSinker97.7107.714.750Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper84.7101.710.802Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.068.324.870Single
Sep 18RHPCurveball80.0100.217.542Single
Sep 15RHPCurveball83.678.2-37.039Out
Sep 15RHPChangeup89.389.8-21.082Out
Sep 15RHPCutter89.697.348.005Out
Sep 14RHPSlider85.0109.518.998Single
Sep 14RHPChangeup80.351.7-66.185Out
Sep 13RHPSinker92.692.129.116Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300000
Sep 23311001
Sep 20300003
Sep 18411003
Sep 15400010
Sep 14411002
Sep 13511002
Sep 9412001
Sep 8522001
Sep 7100000

Two strikes

Michael Wacha KC · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Wacha with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup27%35%21.2%18.2%18.6%
Fastball28%29%9.4%14.0%18.0%
Sinker13%16%7.7%11.3%16.9%
Slider8%7%43.8%21.2%21.0%
Curveball10%7%14.3%9.4%20.1%
Cutter14%6%7.7%19.2%17.9%
Other0%0%–100.0%21.7%
Patrick Bailey bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Patrick Bailey with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%48.9%41.0%
Whiff%26.5%21.3%
Contact%73.5%78.7%
Chase%42.4%39.6%
wOBA.231.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.2%18.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.296
K%27.4%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%11.7%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%27.5%
Avg EV88.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

141 PA
wOBA.327
xwOBA vs this mix.329against pitches like his
RV/1000.00
Hard-hit%27.7%
K%27.1%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael WachaRHP · KC vs CLE
4.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.9 batters over 5.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 37.7%38%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.5%16%56 strikeouts: 11.9%12%67 strikeouts: 7.3%7%78 strikeouts: 4.0%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.3%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.1%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%9.3%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff88
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%9293.27.2%
Changeup27%9480.614.2%
Cutter14%9089.87.9%
Sinker13%8193.24.1%
Curveball10%6875.66.8%
Slider8%8184.514.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2011419%11%27%.350
Sep 15998%5%38%.346
Sep 89317%7%13%.229

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Wacha KC · RHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Patrick Bailey: every projection we've made →