MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 7Chase Meidroth
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedHot
.465wOBA vs LHP.398xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · COLJose Quintana
Throws leftBTB Stuff 83Stable
3.1projected K11%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jose Quintana's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 26% usage, 88.4 mph, +3.7″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Chase Meidroth: wOBA .389 vs league .358 (hitter's edge).Fastball 26%Sinker: 26% usage, 88.8 mph, +10.6″ arm side, +10.0″ rise. Chase Meidroth: wOBA .387 vs league .357 (hitter's edge).Sinker 26%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Chase Meidroth's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Chase Meidroth's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 66.0 mph at 30°Double: 98.4 mph at 12°Out: 50.9 mph at 87°Single: 34.0 mph at -48°Single: 93.3 mph at 15°Home run: 102.9 mph at 30°Single: 82.7 mph at 18°Single: 88.5 mph at -23°Out: 68.5 mph at -48°Out: 97.1 mph at 11°Out: 99.6 mph at -33°Home run: 102.6 mph at 33°Out: 85.3 mph at 49°Out: 64.6 mph at 12°Out: 97.1 mph at -4°Out: 110.2 mph at -16°Out: 80.3 mph at 0°Out: 77.1 mph at 53°Single: 76.2 mph at -2°Single: 101.0 mph at -4°Single: 96.3 mph at -3°Out: 94.5 mph at 10°Double: 102.1 mph at 21°Out: 91.0 mph at 49°Double: 101.3 mph at 17°Out: 71.9 mph at -41°Out: 70.4 mph at -33°Out: 97.7 mph at 38°Single: 76.6 mph at 18°Out: 57.6 mph at -52°Out: 94.1 mph at 69°Single: 73.9 mph at 11°Out: 85.9 mph at 25°Out: 62.6 mph at -51°Out: 94.4 mph at 31°Out: 95.9 mph at -2°Home run: 103.9 mph at 26°Home run: 103.7 mph at 27°Out: 79.4 mph at 68°Single: 73.9 mph at 0°
38% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.8%59.8%+3.0
2+ total bases33.9%30.8%+3.0
Home run9.5%7.5%+2.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Chase Meidroth against each of Jose Quintana's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball26%88.4+4″ / +13″.389.3589.2%14.1%27Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Sinker26%88.8+11″ / +10″.387.35710.5%16.3%29Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Chase Meidroth · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.800.8001.6001.010.82820.0%0.0%0.0%94.3102.925.0%50.0%100.0%
Last 15 G1122.550.5911.100.736.5244.5%9.1%5.4%90.3110.215.8%52.6%47.4%
Last 30 G1730.520.6001.000.682.5263.3%13.3%6.5%90.0110.212.5%50.0%45.8%
90 days4388.366.471.690.498.42211.4%15.9%13.9%87.4110.26.3%42.9%41.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 27%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.308.400.538.407.32826.7%6.7%20.8%76.9102.611.1%33.3%22.2%
Last 15 G1540.206.300.324.281.29330.0%10.0%23.4%82.0102.64.3%30.4%34.8%
Last 30 G3094.226.298.298.281.27024.5%8.5%22.6%82.9105.81.6%27.4%37.1%
90 days71218.236.312.354.307.28122.0%8.7%17.9%84.0105.83.4%31.8%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 20%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.444.500.833.557.45325.0%5.0%14.3%82.3102.915.4%38.5%46.2%
Last 15 G1562.333.403.611.443.37521.0%9.7%17.5%85.8110.29.5%40.5%40.5%
Last 30 G30124.294.371.459.378.33219.4%9.7%19.0%84.9110.24.7%33.7%39.5%
90 days74306.271.357.444.361.32119.0%10.8%16.7%85.0110.24.3%35.1%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 211 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 8%
Chase Meidroth · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating69Above average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.361 / .335running 27 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup84.566.030.849Single
Sep 24LHPSlider87.598.412.920Double
Sep 23RHPSinker90.650.987.006Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper76.934.0-48.241Single
Sep 23LHPCutter87.093.315.874Single
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.2102.9301.444Home run
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.082.718.903Single
Sep 22RHPSinker93.288.5-23.073Single
Sep 22RHPFastball94.268.5-48.206Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.497.111.838Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.799.6-33.086Force out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.6102.6331.180Home run
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24323001
Sep 23422001
Sep 22536110
Sep 20514102
Sep 19300001
Sep 18400011
Sep 17411000
Sep 16534000
Sep 15523000
Sep 14411001

Two strikes

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes
Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sweeper19%26%66.7%33.3%20.5%
Sinker26%22%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball19%13%–0.0%21.3%
Changeup11%9%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Chase Meidroth bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Chase Meidroth with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.1%41.6%
Whiff%15.2%21.7%
Contact%84.8%78.3%
Chase%44.5%40.0%
wOBA.261.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes9.6%14.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.344
K%18.7%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%7.6%
Barrel%2.7%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV85.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

89 PA
wOBA.465
xwOBA vs this mix.398against pitches like his
RV/1002.47
Hard-hit%29.5%
K%13.3%
BB%10.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.3%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.3%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%11.1%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo84.5
BTB Stuff83
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball26%7789.15.6%
Sinker26%8888.80.0%
Curveball19%7778.47.7%
Sweeper19%9278.923.1%
Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Chase Meidroth: every projection we've made →