COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026

The game

COL runs4.7win 50%

CWS runs4.7win 50%

Total9.4book line 8.0

No run, 1st inning49%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: – vs neutral air
Weather: 59°F · Wind in · roof open
Park factor: Runs 99 · HR 97 100 = average

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

COL starter

Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS

3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings

Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%11.1%

BB%5.6%

Whiff%7.1%

Velo84.5

BTB Stuff83

Location100

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball26%7789.15.6%

Sinker26%8888.80.0%

Curveball19%7778.47.7%

Sweeper19%9278.923.1%

Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Sam Antonacci20%

2Kyle Teel31%

3Miguel Vargas21%

4Munetaka Murakami33%

5Andrew Benintendi24%

6Tristan Peters21%

7Chase Meidroth13%

8Colson Montgomery29%

9Braden Montgomery27%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

CWS starter

Davis MartinRHP · CWS vs COL

2.9projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings

Over 2.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%13.4%

BB%9.1%

Whiff%7.0%

Velo89.6

BTB Stuff93

Location96

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball27%8593.46.9%

Sinker20%8092.60.0%

Curveball17%9781.312.5%

Changeup14%10389.64.5%

Cutter12%11089.89.0%

Slider10%9886.610.7%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	70	33%	16%	22%	.267
Sep 15	71	0%	1%	45%	.270
Sep 9	68	5%	6%	47%	.321

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Davis Martin CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Jake McCarthy15%

2Connor Norby28%

3Hunter Goodman27%

4TJ Rumfield14%

5Cole Carrigg23%

6Kyle Karros21%

7Brett Sullivan18%

8Jordan Beck28%

9Ezequiel Tovar19%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Davis Martin CWS · RHPvsCOL lineuppitch-mix battle

Davis Martin's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Davis Martin's pitches					COL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	27%	93.4	85	6.9%	1.39	.367	11.8%	28.1%	+0.34
Sinker	20%	92.6	80	0.0%	-2.17	.379	4.5%	35.1%	+1.26
Curveball	17%	81.3	97	12.5%	-0.99	.295	14.3%	14.4%	-0.05
Changeup	14%	89.6	103	4.5%	-1.63	.344	14.6%	21.7%	+0.43
Cutter	12%	89.8	110	9.0%	2.05	.338	8.5%	26.2%	-0.12
Slider	10%	86.6	98	10.7%	1.09	.290	17.1%	21.8%	-0.40

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineuppitch-mix battle

Jose Quintana's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Jose Quintana's pitches					CWS lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Sinker	26%	88.8	88	0.0%	-11.69	.388	6.4%	28.2%	+4.10
Fastball	26%	89.1	77	5.6%	7.66	.348	10.5%	31.4%	-1.58
Sweeper	19%	78.9	92	23.1%	4.12	.305	8.6%	18.0%	-0.67
Curveball	19%	78.4	77	7.7%	-1.70	.249	11.6%	16.6%	-0.29
Changeup	11%	83.6	81	0.0%	-20.81	.325	13.7%	25.4%	+2.51

Bullpens

Rockies bullpen#28 of 30

K%18.3%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%8.4%

SwStr%9.4%

wOBA allowed.360

Arms available15 / 15

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

White Sox bullpen#13 of 30

K%22.8%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.5%

SwStr%10.6%

wOBA allowed.338

Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+5 pts

Sweeper+8 pts

Sinker-4 pts

Curveball-6 pts

Changeup-3 pts

Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	26%	30%	0.0%	0.0%	18.6%
Sweeper	19%	26%	66.7%	33.3%	20.5%
Sinker	26%	22%	0.0%	0.0%	17.7%
Curveball	19%	13%	–	0.0%	21.3%
Changeup	11%	9%	0.0%	0.0%	18.3%

Davis Martin CWS · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+2 pts

Curveball+3 pts

Slider+7 pts

Sinker-4 pts

Changeup-4 pts

Cutter-3 pts

Davis Martin with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	27%	29%	16.7%	12.2%	18.0%
Curveball	17%	19%	32.0%	30.6%	20.1%
Slider	10%	17%	11.1%	9.3%	21.0%
Sinker	20%	16%	0.0%	2.4%	16.9%
Changeup	14%	10%	0.0%	4.0%	18.6%
Cutter	12%	8%	7.1%	4.8%	17.9%

Rockies lineup

Projected · facing Davis Martin RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Jake McCarthy LF · bats L	71.9%	42.8%	12.0%	4.0	+2.4	.332	F	Balanced	Cold
2	Connor Norby 2B · bats R	64.3%	37.4%	11.0%	3.9	+2.2	.358	C	Balanced	Normal
3	Hunter Goodman DH · bats R	65.0%	41.4%	17.2%	3.8	+3.0	.351	C	Balanced	Normal
4	TJ Rumfield 1B · bats L	65.9%	35.9%	8.1%	3.8	+1.6	.362	B	Contact	Normal
5	Cole Carrigg CF · bats S	64.1%	37.6%	11.0%	3.7	+2.5	.347	Avg	Balanced	Hot
6	Kyle Karros 3B · bats R	62.2%	34.7%	10.2%	3.6	+2.5	.345	C	Balanced	Hot
7	Brett Sullivan C · bats L	61.2%	34.9%	10.3%	3.5	+2.3	.336	Avg	Contact	Normal
8	Jordan Beck RF · bats R	52.7%	25.7%	6.8%	3.4	+2.4	.262	F	Balanced	Normal
9	Ezequiel Tovar SS · bats R	57.1%	30.3%	8.9%	3.3	+1.3	.296	F	Balanced	Normal

White Sox lineup

Projected · facing Jose Quintana LHP