MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 5Cole Carrigg
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.347wOBA vs RHP.316xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · CWSDavis Martin
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
2.9projected K13%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Davis Martin's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 27% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.2″ arm side, +13.2″ rise. Cole Carrigg: wOBA .372 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 27%Sinker: 20% usage, 92.6 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +7.4″ rise. Cole Carrigg: wOBA .363 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 20%Curveball: 17% usage, 81.3 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -9.0″ rise. Cole Carrigg: wOBA .313 vs league .306 (about even).Curveball 17%Changeup: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, +12.3″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Cole Carrigg: wOBA .326 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.8 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Cole Carrigg: wOBA .361 vs league .354 (about even).Cutter 12%Slider: 10% usage, 86.7 mph, -5.0″ arm side, +0.8″ rise. Cole Carrigg: wOBA .331 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Cole Carrigg's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Cole Carrigg's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.7 mph at 70°Single: 91.4 mph at 14°Single: 100.9 mph at 6°Single: 53.7 mph at -9°Home run: 105.7 mph at 24°Out: 101.8 mph at -1°Out: 42.7 mph at -74°Out: 75.5 mph at -8°Out: 103.1 mph at -17°Single: 101.6 mph at -1°Out: 102.9 mph at 27°Single: 102.0 mph at 3°Out: 89.7 mph at 73°Single: 77.7 mph at 27°Out: 74.2 mph at -1°Out: 57.2 mph at -41°Single: 84.6 mph at 22°Single: 103.6 mph at 15°Single: 99.9 mph at -5°Single: 96.0 mph at 17°Out: 89.9 mph at 40°Out: 92.1 mph at 28°Out: 89.5 mph at 25°Out: 99.2 mph at 24°Out: 97.6 mph at 36°Double: 101.8 mph at 18°Home run: 103.6 mph at 41°Home run: 105.5 mph at 34°Single: 103.4 mph at 17°Out: 89.4 mph at 26°Single: 67.2 mph at 7°Out: 100.5 mph at 49°Home run: 100.2 mph at 36°Out: 74.0 mph at 10°Out: 94.1 mph at 47°Out: 38.9 mph at -37°Out: 103.3 mph at 38°Out: 91.1 mph at 70°Out: 96.8 mph at -7°Out: 84.0 mph at -3°
50% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.1%61.6%+2.5
2+ total bases37.6%35.5%+2.1
Home run11.0%10.2%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Cole Carrigg against each of Davis Martin's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball27%93.4+5″ / +13″.372.36514.0%14.8%54About league average vs these
Sinker20%92.6+14″ / +7″.363.35612.2%13.0%46About league average vs these
Curveball17%81.3-14″ / -9″.313.30632.0%27.9%8About league average vs these
Changeup14%89.6+12″ / +1″.326.31921.3%21.9%35About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.8-1″ / +7″.361.35420.1%21.0%31About league average vs these
Slider10%86.7-5″ / +1″.331.32431.5%27.4%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Cole Carrigg · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.286.333.500.360.32326.7%0.0%27.0%87.3105.710.0%50.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1446.341.370.636.427.31228.3%2.2%24.2%90.3105.76.5%51.6%38.7%
Last 30 G2781.273.309.519.358.30129.6%3.7%25.1%90.4106.59.6%48.1%38.5%
90 days61178.270.343.453.351.32023.0%7.9%22.7%87.1109.95.1%35.9%40.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 117 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 26%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G26.500.500.500.450.48816.7%0.0%33.3%88.7102.920.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G618.294.294.353.350.29327.8%0.0%22.7%88.4108.47.7%46.2%30.8%
Last 30 G1844.256.256.372.298.28525.0%0.0%21.9%88.6108.46.1%45.5%36.4%
90 days52119.297.316.477.350.29625.2%3.4%23.6%88.4108.45.9%40.0%38.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 85 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 24%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.350.381.500.386.37023.8%0.0%28.8%87.8105.713.3%46.7%26.7%
Last 15 G1564.328.349.557.406.30728.1%1.6%23.8%89.7108.46.8%50.0%36.4%
Last 30 G30125.267.290.467.337.29628.0%2.4%23.9%89.7108.48.2%47.1%37.6%
90 days71297.281.332.463.351.31023.9%6.1%23.1%87.7109.95.4%37.6%39.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 202 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 25%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 12%
Cole Carrigg · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches79trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.348 / .310running 38 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball89.193.770.003Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup83.591.414.917Single
Sep 24RHPSinker95.2100.96.562Single
Sep 24LHPChangeup83.853.7-9.088Single
Sep 24RHPSlider87.7105.7241.727Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball92.6101.8-1.428Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup89.242.7-74.209Out
Sep 23RHPFastball98.075.5-8.098Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper78.9103.1-17.228Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.6101.6-1.428Single
Sep 20LHPFastball92.4102.9271.419Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup83.2102.03.503Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24547100
Sep 23400001
Sep 22411001
Sep 20411002
Sep 19411001
Sep 18533001
Sep 17411001
Sep 16400001
Sep 155411201
Sep 14525101

Two strikes

Davis Martin CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Davis Martin with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball27%29%16.7%12.2%18.0%
Curveball17%19%32.0%30.6%20.1%
Slider10%17%11.1%9.3%21.0%
Sinker20%16%0.0%2.4%16.9%
Changeup14%10%0.0%4.0%18.6%
Cutter12%8%7.1%4.8%17.9%
Cole Carrigg bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Cole Carrigg with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.3%41.0%
Whiff%24.8%21.3%
Contact%75.2%78.7%
Chase%39.3%39.6%
wOBA.254.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.3%20.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.339
K%23.8%
BB%6.4%
Whiff%11.8%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%25.6%
Avg EV87.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

178 PA
wOBA.347
xwOBA vs this mix.316against pitches like his
RV/1000.36
Hard-hit%24.1%
K%23.1%
BB%6.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Davis MartinRHP · CWS vs COL
2.9projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 66.7%67%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 9.5%10%56 strikeouts: 4.6%5%67 strikeouts: 2.0%2%78 strikeouts: 0.7%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.3%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.4%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%7.0%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff93
Location96
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball27%8593.46.9%
Sinker20%8092.60.0%
Curveball17%9781.312.5%
Changeup14%10389.64.5%
Cutter12%11089.89.0%
Slider10%9886.610.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207033%16%22%.267
Sep 15710%1%45%.270
Sep 9685%6%47%.321

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Davis Martin CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Cole Carrigg: every projection we've made →