MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 2Connor Norby
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.358wOBA vs RHP.341xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · CWSDavis Martin
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
2.9projected K13%K%2.3trips vs this hitter
Davis Martin's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 27% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.2″ arm side, +13.2″ rise. Connor Norby: wOBA .356 vs league .350 (about even).Fastball 27%Sinker: 20% usage, 92.6 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +7.4″ rise. Connor Norby: wOBA .360 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 20%Curveball: 17% usage, 81.3 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -9.0″ rise. Connor Norby: wOBA .280 vs league .274 (about even).Curveball 17%Changeup: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, +12.3″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Connor Norby: wOBA .341 vs league .334 (about even).Changeup 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.8 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Connor Norby: wOBA .313 vs league .306 (about even).Cutter 12%Slider: 10% usage, 86.7 mph, -5.0″ arm side, +0.8″ rise. Connor Norby: wOBA .294 vs league .288 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Connor Norby's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Connor Norby's last 40 balls in playHit (20)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 102.0 mph at 23°Single: 76.6 mph at 27°Out: 102.6 mph at 20°Out: 88.3 mph at 24°Out: 83.9 mph at 77°Out: 99.6 mph at 35°Out: 86.5 mph at 42°Out: 83.4 mph at 54°Single: 86.9 mph at 15°Single: 88.7 mph at -8°Single: 74.3 mph at 17°Out: 85.3 mph at -28°Single: 105.2 mph at 5°Single: 88.6 mph at -15°Out: 92.5 mph at 47°Single: 82.6 mph at 10°Out: 92.6 mph at -6°Double: 96.4 mph at 30°Out: 93.5 mph at -24°Out: 90.6 mph at 51°Double: 106.8 mph at 22°Out: 101.5 mph at 18°Double: 95.3 mph at 38°Out: 89.9 mph at 59°Double: 100.1 mph at 28°Single: 66.7 mph at 39°Out: 97.3 mph at 37°Single: 101.0 mph at 11°Single: 100.2 mph at -1°Out: 82.2 mph at 32°Out: 58.8 mph at -1°Out: 74.2 mph at 7°Home run: 105.8 mph at 26°Double: 98.0 mph at 29°Out: 82.4 mph at 24°Single: 73.5 mph at 21°Single: 79.0 mph at 23°Out: 71.7 mph at 0°Single: 68.9 mph at 34°Out: 89.0 mph at 24°
35% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot50% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.3%62.1%+2.2
2+ total bases37.4%36.0%+1.4
Home run11.0%10.9%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Connor Norby against each of Davis Martin's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball27%93.4+5″ / +13″.356.35021.2%18.8%27About league average vs these
Sinker20%92.6+14″ / +7″.360.35312.8%11.0%20About league average vs these
Curveball17%81.3-14″ / -9″.280.27431.9%28.4%8Little history vs this shape
Changeup14%89.6+12″ / +1″.341.33415.9%16.1%11About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.8-1″ / +7″.313.30629.5%26.5%21About league average vs these
Slider10%86.7-5″ / +1″.294.28835.6%31.6%17About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Connor Norby · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.167.250.167.200.22925.0%12.5%11.8%85.888.30.0%0.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1228.280.321.480.352.33728.6%7.1%21.3%91.2106.817.6%29.4%52.9%
Last 30 G2665.288.338.475.356.33229.2%6.2%25.5%88.2106.810.0%32.5%45.0%
90 days3381.278.346.472.358.34328.4%8.6%26.5%88.5106.88.2%34.7%46.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 33%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.375.375.500.381.35437.5%0.0%11.8%93.9102.620.0%60.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1226.435.500.609.550.34823.1%7.7%17.4%89.8102.611.8%52.9%35.3%
Last 30 G2451.349.451.465.453.36421.6%13.7%15.7%87.1102.69.7%38.7%41.9%
90 days3062.340.435.453.448.35622.6%12.9%16.5%87.1102.67.9%36.8%39.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 38 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 24%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.286.312.357.291.29131.2%6.2%11.8%89.8102.610.0%30.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1554.354.407.542.449.34325.9%7.4%19.6%90.5106.814.7%41.2%44.1%
Last 30 G30116.314.388.471.399.34625.9%9.5%21.4%87.8106.89.9%35.2%43.7%
90 days38143.304.385.464.397.34925.9%10.5%22.3%87.9106.88.0%35.6%43.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 87 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 29%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 9%
Connor Norby · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating83Excellent
Last 100 pitches47trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.395 / .355running 40 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball90.3102.023.859Double
Sep 24LHPFastball91.976.627.433Single
Sep 24LHPChangeup83.8102.620.713Out
Sep 22RHPFastball92.988.324.173Sac fly
Sep 22RHPFastball91.883.977.010Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup84.799.635.688Out
Sep 20RHPFastball99.086.542.007Out
Sep 19RHPSlider85.683.454.016Out
Sep 19RHPFastball95.586.915.927Single
Sep 19LHPSlider90.088.7-8.138Single
Sep 18RHPSweeper85.074.317.786Single
Sep 18LHPSinker98.585.3-28.057Error
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24323000
Sep 23100001
Sep 22400011
Sep 20400002
Sep 19422001
Sep 18533010
Sep 17411001
Sep 16412000
Sep 14524000
Sep 12534001

Two strikes

Davis Martin CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Davis Martin with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball27%29%16.7%12.2%18.0%
Curveball17%19%32.0%30.6%20.1%
Slider10%17%11.1%9.3%21.0%
Sinker20%16%0.0%2.4%16.9%
Changeup14%10%0.0%4.0%18.6%
Cutter12%8%7.1%4.8%17.9%
Connor Norby bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Connor Norby with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.6%42.4%
Whiff%25.3%22.2%
Contact%74.7%77.8%
Chase%37.2%39.8%
wOBA.246.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.8%20.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.355
K%25.9%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%11.4%
Barrel%5.4%
Hard-hit%23.0%
Avg EV88.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

81 PA
wOBA.358
xwOBA vs this mix.341against pitches like his
RV/1000.38
Hard-hit%21.6%
K%27.6%
BB%10.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Davis MartinRHP · CWS vs COL
2.9projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 66.7%67%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 9.5%10%56 strikeouts: 4.6%5%67 strikeouts: 2.0%2%78 strikeouts: 0.7%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.3%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.4%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%7.0%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff93
Location96
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball27%8593.46.9%
Sinker20%8092.60.0%
Curveball17%9781.312.5%
Changeup14%10389.64.5%
Cutter12%11089.89.0%
Slider10%9886.610.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207033%16%22%.267
Sep 15710%1%45%.270
Sep 9685%6%47%.321

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Davis Martin CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Connor Norby: every projection we've made →