MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 9Ezequiel Tovar
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.296wOBA vs RHP.289xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · CWSDavis Martin
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
2.9projected K13%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Davis Martin's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 27% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.2″ arm side, +13.2″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .344 vs league .350 (about even).Fastball 27%Sinker: 20% usage, 92.6 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +7.4″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .348 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 20%Curveball: 17% usage, 81.3 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -9.0″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .268 vs league .274 (about even).Curveball 17%Changeup: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, +12.3″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .329 vs league .334 (about even).Changeup 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.8 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .300 vs league .306 (about even).Cutter 12%Slider: 10% usage, 86.7 mph, -5.0″ arm side, +0.8″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .282 vs league .288 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ezequiel Tovar's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ezequiel Tovar's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 49.2 mph at -48°Out: 73.3 mph at 53°Out: 97.7 mph at 64°Out: 47.8 mph at -77°Single: 66.5 mph at 24°Out: 67.1 mph at 71°Home run: 101.5 mph at 25°Out: 72.5 mph at -18°Single: 106.6 mph at -2°Double: 103.9 mph at 21°Out: 88.9 mph at 59°Out: 72.2 mph at 60°Single: 102.4 mph at 12°Out: 90.2 mph at 1°Out: 89.8 mph at 26°Out: 91.9 mph at -3°Single: 106.7 mph at 0°Out: 67.4 mph at 13°Home run: 107.3 mph at 23°Out: 24.9 mph at 20°Out: 28.8 mph at -56°Out: 94.0 mph at 26°Single: 73.8 mph at 37°Single: 85.5 mph at 18°Out: 65.8 mph at 13°Out: 71.2 mph at -12°Out: 90.3 mph at 34°Single: 92.2 mph at 12°Out: 92.4 mph at 31°Single: 91.8 mph at 11°Single: 88.7 mph at -5°Single: 77.4 mph at 15°Out: 95.9 mph at 48°Out: 90.4 mph at 40°Out: 98.9 mph at 33°Out: 73.9 mph at -18°Single: 85.7 mph at -3°Out: 96.3 mph at 58°Out: 94.1 mph at 5°Out: 69.9 mph at 62°
25% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.1%55.8%+1.3
2+ total bases30.3%29.7%+0.6
Home run8.9%9.1%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Ezequiel Tovar against each of Davis Martin's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball27%93.4+5″ / +13″.344.35018.2%18.8%30About league average vs these
Sinker20%92.6+14″ / +7″.348.35310.5%11.0%26About league average vs these
Curveball17%81.3-14″ / -9″.268.27425.3%28.4%8About league average vs these
Changeup14%89.6+12″ / +1″.329.33415.6%16.1%13About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.8-1″ / +7″.300.30625.3%26.5%29About league average vs these
Slider10%86.7-5″ / +1″.282.28828.0%31.6%28About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ezequiel Tovar · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.300.300.400.339.26140.0%0.0%34.5%78.4106.620.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1222.381.381.571.442.34327.3%0.0%27.5%78.8107.313.3%20.0%53.3%
Last 30 G2347.395.413.581.450.38525.5%4.3%26.2%84.7107.39.7%32.3%48.4%
90 days55120.257.286.376.301.29418.3%5.0%22.3%83.6107.34.4%30.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 22%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.143.143.571.286.19814.3%0.0%14.3%80.5101.516.7%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1326.167.231.292.235.23830.8%7.7%29.3%82.5106.76.2%25.0%37.5%
Last 30 G2345.098.178.171.167.22028.9%8.9%29.0%84.1109.47.1%28.6%28.6%
90 days4888.179.253.333.261.26626.1%9.1%28.3%84.5109.48.8%31.6%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 19%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.235.235.471.316.23329.4%0.0%27.9%79.5106.618.2%36.4%27.3%
Last 15 G1548.267.298.422.325.28429.2%4.2%28.4%80.7107.39.7%22.6%45.2%
Last 30 G3092.250.297.381.307.30227.2%6.5%27.6%84.4109.48.5%30.5%39.0%
90 days65208.225.272.358.284.28221.6%6.7%24.8%83.9109.46.1%30.6%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 17%
Ezequiel Tovar · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating21Poor
Last 100 pitches51trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.276 / .285results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPChangeup85.649.2-48.211Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup86.773.353.102Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.897.764.013Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.147.8-77.154Out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.666.524.819Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball90.967.171.000Out
Sep 23LHPSinker97.9101.525.972Home run
Sep 20LHPChangeup83.572.5-18.054Out
Sep 18RHPFastball97.1106.6-2.426Single
Sep 18RHPFastball97.1103.921.954Double
Sep 18LHPChangeup87.788.959.031Out
Sep 16LHPCurveball82.272.260.008Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24500002
Sep 23425100
Sep 20200001
Sep 19200001
Sep 18423001
Sep 16411001
Sep 14411010
Sep 12414101
Sep 11200001
Sep 10422010

Two strikes

Davis Martin CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Davis Martin with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball27%29%16.7%12.2%18.0%
Curveball17%19%32.0%30.6%20.1%
Slider10%17%11.1%9.3%21.0%
Sinker20%16%0.0%2.4%16.9%
Changeup14%10%0.0%4.0%18.6%
Cutter12%8%7.1%4.8%17.9%
Ezequiel Tovar bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ezequiel Tovar with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.3%42.4%
Whiff%20.5%22.2%
Contact%79.5%77.8%
Chase%42.7%39.8%
wOBA.238.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.3%20.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.294
K%22.3%
BB%6.1%
Whiff%14.2%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%23.0%
Avg EV84.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

119 PA
wOBA.296
xwOBA vs this mix.289against pitches like his
RV/100-1.00
Hard-hit%22.9%
K%19.3%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Davis MartinRHP · CWS vs COL
2.9projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 66.7%67%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 9.5%10%56 strikeouts: 4.6%5%67 strikeouts: 2.0%2%78 strikeouts: 0.7%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.3%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.4%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%7.0%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff93
Location96
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball27%8593.46.9%
Sinker20%8092.60.0%
Curveball17%9781.312.5%
Changeup14%10389.64.5%
Cutter12%11089.89.0%
Slider10%9886.610.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207033%16%22%.267
Sep 15710%1%45%.270
Sep 9685%6%47%.321

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Davis Martin CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ezequiel Tovar: every projection we've made →