MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 1Jake McCarthy
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.332wOBA vs RHP.321xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · CWSDavis Martin
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
2.9projected K13%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Davis Martin's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 27% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.2″ arm side, +13.2″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .366 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 27%Sinker: 20% usage, 92.6 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +7.4″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .357 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 20%Curveball: 17% usage, 81.3 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -9.0″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .307 vs league .306 (about even).Curveball 17%Changeup: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, +12.3″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .320 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.8 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .355 vs league .354 (about even).Cutter 12%Slider: 10% usage, 86.7 mph, -5.0″ arm side, +0.8″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .324 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake McCarthy's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake McCarthy's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.6 mph at 62°Out: 89.4 mph at 71°Single: 82.8 mph at -13°Out: 48.1 mph at -58°Single: 94.9 mph at 1°Out: 44.9 mph at -23°Out: 98.4 mph at 16°Out: 100.3 mph at 9°Out: 75.1 mph at -17°Triple: 104.7 mph at 3°Out: 45.8 mph at 74°Out: 81.2 mph at 28°Out: 61.3 mph at -28°Single: 38.7 mph at -69°Out: 74.2 mph at -7°Out: 43.7 mph at -62°Single: 91.6 mph at 12°Out: 87.9 mph at -20°Single: 63.0 mph at -8°Triple: 104.8 mph at 24°Out: 85.8 mph at 33°Out: 74.2 mph at -17°Triple: 99.4 mph at 27°Out: 77.7 mph at 4°Out: 91.1 mph at 3°Out: 74.0 mph at 2°Out: 82.0 mph at -20°Single: 95.4 mph at 13°Single: 85.2 mph at 8°Out: 105.0 mph at 12°Out: 91.7 mph at 7°Double: 88.1 mph at 21°Triple: 102.7 mph at 27°Out: 96.4 mph at 18°Out: 91.0 mph at -3°Out: 79.8 mph at 34°Out: 71.1 mph at 61°Out: 91.8 mph at 36°Single: 91.0 mph at -19°Out: 101.2 mph at -2°
25% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit71.9%69.6%+2.4
2+ total bases42.8%40.4%+2.4
Home run12.0%10.5%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jake McCarthy against each of Davis Martin's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball27%93.4+5″ / +13″.366.36510.5%14.8%60About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker20%92.6+14″ / +7″.357.3569.6%13.0%47About league average vs these
Curveball17%81.3-14″ / -9″.307.30624.5%27.9%14About league average vs these
Changeup14%89.6+12″ / +1″.320.31918.1%21.9%33About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.8-1″ / +7″.355.35415.6%21.0%44About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider10%86.7-5″ / +1″.324.32423.8%27.4%40About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake McCarthy · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.182.182.182.180.24318.2%0.0%25.0%70.3100.30.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1436.229.250.314.256.30613.9%0.0%16.9%81.5105.03.4%24.1%34.5%
Last 30 G2977.264.299.431.319.35113.0%3.9%12.1%86.6106.86.5%35.5%37.1%
90 days72218.282.309.442.331.32014.2%3.7%17.5%84.3110.44.5%33.0%38.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 176 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.222.222.444.378.15311.1%0.0%23.5%75.2104.70.0%12.5%12.5%
Last 15 G1128.423.464.731.536.35610.7%3.6%14.9%81.2104.813.0%26.1%34.8%
Last 30 G2558.346.414.538.428.34012.1%5.2%18.7%82.7104.86.7%26.7%35.6%
90 days56126.304.376.554.406.36013.5%5.6%18.5%81.3108.26.2%29.2%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 96 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 28%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.200.200.300.274.20115.0%0.0%24.2%72.8104.70.0%18.8%18.8%
Last 15 G1564.311.344.492.380.32812.5%1.6%16.0%81.4105.07.7%25.0%34.6%
Last 30 G30135.298.348.476.366.34612.6%4.4%15.0%85.0106.86.5%31.8%36.4%
90 days77344.289.333.481.359.33514.0%4.4%17.9%83.2110.45.1%31.6%39.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 272 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 25%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 7%
Jake McCarthy · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating74Above average
Last 100 pitches30trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .340running 17 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCurveball77.280.662.026Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.989.471.000Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.182.8-13.095Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball82.248.1-58.260Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup87.494.91.444Single
Sep 23LHPSinker97.044.9-23.227Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.098.416.628Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper77.7100.39.676Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.775.1-17.072Force out
Sep 20LHPSlider88.9104.73.505Triple
Sep 20RHPFastball96.845.874.003Out
Sep 20LHPSinker93.781.228.184Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24311000
Sep 23411000
Sep 22400002
Sep 20413001
Sep 19511000
Sep 18535001
Sep 17313000
Sep 16400011
Sep 15522000
Sep 14525000

Two strikes

Davis Martin CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Davis Martin with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball27%29%16.7%12.2%18.0%
Curveball17%19%32.0%30.6%20.1%
Slider10%17%11.1%9.3%21.0%
Sinker20%16%0.0%2.4%16.9%
Changeup14%10%0.0%4.0%18.6%
Cutter12%8%7.1%4.8%17.9%
Jake McCarthy bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake McCarthy with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.3%41.0%
Whiff%19.0%21.3%
Contact%81.0%78.7%
Chase%47.9%39.6%
wOBA.216.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.9%20.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.336
K%15.0%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%24.5%
Avg EV83.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

214 PA
wOBA.332
xwOBA vs this mix.321against pitches like his
RV/100-0.08
Hard-hit%26.4%
K%15.3%
BB%4.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Davis MartinRHP · CWS vs COL
2.9projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 66.7%67%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 9.5%10%56 strikeouts: 4.6%5%67 strikeouts: 2.0%2%78 strikeouts: 0.7%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.3%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.4%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%7.0%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff93
Location96
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball27%8593.46.9%
Sinker20%8092.60.0%
Curveball17%9781.312.5%
Changeup14%10389.64.5%
Cutter12%11089.89.0%
Slider10%9886.610.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207033%16%22%.267
Sep 15710%1%45%.270
Sep 9685%6%47%.321

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Davis Martin CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake McCarthy: every projection we've made →