MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 8Jordan Beck
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.262wOBA vs RHP.265xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · CWSDavis Martin
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
2.9projected K13%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Davis Martin's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 27% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.2″ arm side, +13.2″ rise. Jordan Beck: wOBA .340 vs league .350 (about even).Fastball 27%Sinker: 20% usage, 92.6 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +7.4″ rise. Jordan Beck: wOBA .344 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 20%Curveball: 17% usage, 81.3 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -9.0″ rise. Jordan Beck: wOBA .264 vs league .274 (about even).Curveball 17%Changeup: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, +12.3″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Jordan Beck: wOBA .325 vs league .334 (about even).Changeup 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.8 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Jordan Beck: wOBA .297 vs league .306 (about even).Cutter 12%Slider: 10% usage, 86.7 mph, -5.0″ arm side, +0.8″ rise. Jordan Beck: wOBA .278 vs league .288 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jordan Beck's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jordan Beck's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 103.9 mph at 13°Out: 86.7 mph at -37°Out: 94.5 mph at 56°Out: 91.8 mph at 3°Out: 101.4 mph at 7°Out: 77.5 mph at 37°Single: 102.6 mph at 12°Out: 61.0 mph at -8°Single: 30.7 mph at -1°Single: 65.5 mph at -3°Out: 102.2 mph at 39°Out: 98.9 mph at 16°Out: 77.1 mph at 90°Out: 74.3 mph at 11°Out: 89.1 mph at 65°Out: 65.6 mph at 8°Single: 95.7 mph at 12°Out: 78.9 mph at 57°Single: 44.7 mph at -61°Out: 68.0 mph at 66°Single: 97.4 mph at 14°Out: 62.3 mph at 39°Single: 77.7 mph at 21°Out: 91.1 mph at 52°Single: 108.3 mph at 13°Single: 97.5 mph at 15°Single: 88.8 mph at 1°Out: 92.9 mph at 57°Out: 36.7 mph at -36°Out: 86.6 mph at 37°Out: 95.7 mph at 59°Out: 87.3 mph at 54°Out: 100.6 mph at 41°Out: 103.7 mph at 8°Double: 104.3 mph at 4°Out: 92.1 mph at -24°Out: 81.0 mph at 29°Single: 100.5 mph at -4°Out: 88.2 mph at 62°Out: 110.0 mph at 15°
38% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.7%50.3%+2.4
2+ total bases25.7%24.4%+1.3
Home run6.8%6.8%-0.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.7
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jordan Beck against each of Davis Martin's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball27%93.4+5″ / +13″.340.35020.0%18.8%8Little history vs this shape
Sinker20%92.6+14″ / +7″.344.35311.8%11.0%7Little history vs this shape
Curveball17%81.3-14″ / -9″.264.27430.9%28.4%3Little history vs this shape
Changeup14%89.6+12″ / +1″.325.33415.2%16.1%6Little history vs this shape
Cutter12%89.8-1″ / +7″.297.30628.2%26.5%9About league average vs these
Slider10%86.7-5″ / +1″.278.28834.8%31.6%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jordan Beck · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.000.01966.7%0.0%42.9%86.786.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G610.111.200.111.160.20640.0%10.0%21.7%80.3102.60.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 30 G1834.129.206.226.199.20932.4%8.8%25.7%84.8110.010.0%25.0%30.0%
90 days1834.129.206.226.199.20932.4%8.8%25.7%84.8110.010.0%25.0%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 15%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 30%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.125.125.125.112.16462.5%0.0%33.3%96.7103.90.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1429.185.241.185.203.22044.8%6.9%30.8%81.5103.90.0%35.7%28.6%
Last 30 G2753.250.321.271.276.25441.5%9.4%29.0%86.1108.50.0%46.2%30.8%
90 days2753.250.321.271.276.25441.5%9.4%29.0%86.1108.50.0%46.2%30.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 27%Fly ball 12%Pop-up 23%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.091.091.091.082.12563.6%0.0%36.0%94.2103.90.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1539.167.231.167.192.21743.6%7.7%28.4%81.2103.90.0%31.6%31.6%
Last 30 G3087.203.276.253.246.23637.9%9.2%27.7%85.5110.04.3%37.0%30.4%
90 days3087.203.276.253.246.23637.9%9.2%27.7%85.5110.04.3%37.0%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 22%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 26%
Jordan Beck · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating2Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches2steady
wOBA / xwOBA.248 / .233results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball91.6103.913.875Single
Sep 23RHPSinker98.686.7-37.057Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.494.556.010Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball82.291.83.431Out
Sep 16LHPChangeup87.0101.47.589Out
Sep 16LHPSinker92.777.537.099Out
Sep 16RHPFastball98.9102.612.947Single
Sep 13RHPSlider86.561.0-8.088Out
Sep 12LHPChangeup88.830.7-1.271Single
Sep 11LHPChangeup88.165.5-3.083Single
Sep 11LHPSinker93.1102.239.591Out
Sep 10LHPCutter86.198.916.623Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511004
Sep 23200001
Sep 20200000
Sep 19100001
Sep 17100001
Sep 16411010
Sep 13100000
Sep 12511013
Sep 11211000
Sep 10400010

Two strikes

Davis Martin CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Davis Martin with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball27%29%16.7%12.2%18.0%
Curveball17%19%32.0%30.6%20.1%
Slider10%17%11.1%9.3%21.0%
Sinker20%16%0.0%2.4%16.9%
Changeup14%10%0.0%4.0%18.6%
Cutter12%8%7.1%4.8%17.9%
Jordan Beck bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jordan Beck with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.1%42.4%
Whiff%23.8%22.2%
Contact%76.2%77.8%
Chase%42.6%39.8%
wOBA.231.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.5%20.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.306
K%31.0%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%11.8%
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%22.9%
Avg EV86.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

34 PA
wOBA.262
xwOBA vs this mix.265against pitches like his
RV/100-1.40
Hard-hit%20.8%
K%27.9%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Davis MartinRHP · CWS vs COL
2.9projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 66.7%67%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 9.5%10%56 strikeouts: 4.6%5%67 strikeouts: 2.0%2%78 strikeouts: 0.7%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.3%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.4%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%7.0%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff93
Location96
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball27%8593.46.9%
Sinker20%8092.60.0%
Curveball17%9781.312.5%
Changeup14%10389.64.5%
Cutter12%11089.89.0%
Slider10%9886.610.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207033%16%22%.267
Sep 15710%1%45%.270
Sep 9685%6%47%.321

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Davis Martin CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jordan Beck: every projection we've made →