MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 2Kyle Teel
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.300wOBA vs LHP.303xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · COLJose Quintana
Throws leftBTB Stuff 83Stable
3.1projected K11%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jose Quintana's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 26% usage, 88.4 mph, +3.7″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .363 vs league .366 (about even).Fastball 26%Sinker: 26% usage, 88.8 mph, +10.6″ arm side, +10.0″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .351 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 26%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Teel's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Teel's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 91.3 mph at 19°Out: 38.6 mph at -34°Home run: 105.6 mph at 28°Single: 100.3 mph at 15°Out: 66.1 mph at 59°Out: 98.1 mph at -4°Out: 77.3 mph at 36°Out: 82.5 mph at 48°Single: 82.8 mph at 10°Out: 96.2 mph at 37°Out: 68.0 mph at -2°Out: 95.6 mph at 34°Out: 95.1 mph at -6°Out: 101.0 mph at 21°Double: 107.2 mph at 18°Out: 62.8 mph at -37°Out: 53.5 mph at -58°Single: 86.3 mph at 17°Single: 105.0 mph at -4°Out: 59.5 mph at -31°Home run: 112.4 mph at 23°Single: 102.7 mph at -11°Out: 97.1 mph at 49°Out: 62.2 mph at 3°Home run: 106.0 mph at 32°Out: 93.0 mph at 41°Out: 78.8 mph at 74°Out: 40.3 mph at -15°Out: 97.4 mph at 38°Out: 44.0 mph at -83°Out: 103.2 mph at 20°Double: 66.7 mph at 26°Single: 85.7 mph at 14°Out: 80.1 mph at 45°Single: 96.7 mph at 15°Out: 100.5 mph at 19°Out: 53.7 mph at 37°Out: 51.0 mph at -68°Out: 98.6 mph at 39°Out: 79.7 mph at 13°
45% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.9%53.4%+2.5
2+ total bases33.6%31.8%+1.8
Home run12.2%11.7%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+1.0
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Teel against each of Jose Quintana's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball26%88.4+4″ / +13″.363.36630.5%19.5%9About league average vs these
Sinker26%88.8+11″ / +10″.351.35317.7%10.7%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Teel · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.250.500.250.383.34316.7%33.3%21.4%82.398.10.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1019.231.474.308.382.38131.6%26.3%27.0%90.9107.214.3%57.1%57.1%
Last 30 G1731.160.323.200.263.29638.7%16.1%34.9%81.3107.27.7%46.2%46.2%
90 days1833.148.303.185.274.28439.4%15.2%35.3%80.2107.27.1%42.9%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 14 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 50%Fly ball 7%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.231.412.462.494.42233.3%11.1%32.4%82.5105.612.5%37.5%37.5%
Last 15 G1438.222.432.444.443.39234.2%21.1%31.5%83.4112.413.3%46.7%26.7%
Last 30 G2875.197.338.426.362.36833.3%14.7%28.0%86.1112.413.5%51.4%37.8%
90 days3288.205.333.397.347.34036.4%13.6%30.4%84.6112.411.9%50.0%40.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 42 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 29%Fly ball 41%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.235.435.412.465.40129.2%16.7%29.4%82.4105.69.1%36.4%36.4%
Last 15 G1557.225.446.400.422.38833.3%22.8%30.0%85.8112.413.6%50.0%36.4%
Last 30 G30106.186.333.360.333.34734.9%15.1%30.1%84.8112.412.0%50.0%40.0%
90 days34121.190.325.340.327.32537.2%14.0%31.8%83.5112.410.7%48.2%42.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 56 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 34%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 5%
Kyle Teel · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating71Above average
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.320 / .337running 17 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball95.291.319.471Single
Sep 24RHPSinker90.838.6-34–Sac bunt
Sep 24RHPFastball96.3105.6281.857Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball93.0100.315.716Single
Sep 22LHPSinker93.066.159.009Out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.198.1-4.241Double play
Sep 20RHPFastball96.977.336.075Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.682.548.008Out
Sep 20LHPCutter86.782.810.413Single
Sep 19RHPSlider89.896.237.209Out
Sep 19RHPSlider89.368.0-2.080Error
Sep 18RHPFastball96.895.634.252Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24625110
Sep 23411012
Sep 22500012
Sep 20511011
Sep 19400002
Sep 18400001
Sep 16400012
Sep 15200020
Sep 14512013
Sep 13400021

Two strikes

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes
Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sweeper19%26%66.7%33.3%20.5%
Sinker26%22%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball19%13%–0.0%21.3%
Changeup11%9%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Kyle Teel bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Teel with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.6%44.1%
Whiff%25.8%22.7%
Contact%74.2%77.3%
Chase%39.1%38.1%
wOBA.229.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.9%14.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.344
K%30.9%
BB%12.6%
Whiff%12.8%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%23.0%
Avg EV85.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

33 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.303against pitches like his
RV/100-0.26
Hard-hit%22.6%
K%30.6%
BB%13.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.3%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.3%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%11.1%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo84.5
BTB Stuff83
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball26%7789.15.6%
Sinker26%8888.80.0%
Curveball19%7778.47.7%
Sweeper19%9278.923.1%
Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Teel: every projection we've made →