MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 3Miguel Vargas
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedCold
.340wOBA vs LHP.338xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · COLJose Quintana
Throws leftBTB Stuff 83Stable
3.1projected K11%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jose Quintana's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 26% usage, 88.4 mph, +3.7″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .357 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 26%Sinker: 26% usage, 88.8 mph, +10.6″ arm side, +10.0″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .355 vs league .357 (about even).Sinker 26%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Miguel Vargas's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Miguel Vargas's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 102.7 mph at 14°Single: 96.3 mph at 13°Single: 64.2 mph at 28°Out: 95.6 mph at 66°Out: 60.2 mph at 14°Out: 76.7 mph at 10°Single: 95.2 mph at -6°Out: 82.4 mph at -21°Out: 93.8 mph at 74°Out: 88.9 mph at 20°Single: 93.9 mph at 6°Home run: 102.2 mph at 33°Out: 90.4 mph at 30°Home run: 101.7 mph at 34°Double: 102.0 mph at 21°Out: 94.9 mph at 42°Out: 93.1 mph at 68°Out: 92.0 mph at -6°Out: 64.5 mph at -40°Out: 76.7 mph at 42°Single: 107.5 mph at 9°Out: 96.0 mph at -10°Out: 95.3 mph at 66°Out: 89.6 mph at 52°Out: 92.8 mph at 62°Single: 78.1 mph at 20°Single: 59.3 mph at -74°Out: 87.7 mph at 44°Out: 89.0 mph at 60°Home run: 105.3 mph at 30°Out: 74.7 mph at 47°Out: 65.9 mph at -37°Single: 76.3 mph at 16°Single: 68.7 mph at 35°Out: 94.7 mph at 33°Single: 101.4 mph at 16°Out: 104.3 mph at 33°Out: 58.0 mph at -19°Out: 46.2 mph at -33°Out: 69.5 mph at 6°
33% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.8%63.2%+2.7
2+ total bases42.1%39.1%+3.0
Home run17.2%14.4%+2.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Miguel Vargas against each of Jose Quintana's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball26%88.4+4″ / +13″.357.35812.9%14.1%27About league average vs these
Sinker26%88.8+11″ / +10″.355.35714.9%16.3%29About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Miguel Vargas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.333.429.333.357.3230.0%14.3%0.0%88.895.60.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1125.238.320.238.264.26124.0%12.0%17.1%86.6107.50.0%31.2%25.0%
Last 30 G1734.259.382.259.309.29220.6%17.6%16.4%85.9107.50.0%28.6%28.6%
90 days50102.226.343.417.339.35720.6%15.7%17.5%91.4111.09.2%46.2%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 17%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.364.588.636.524.47123.5%35.3%27.3%87.1102.714.3%42.9%71.4%
Last 15 G1543.286.419.571.424.40918.6%18.6%23.4%85.7105.314.8%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G30101.291.396.442.374.36418.8%14.9%16.9%87.5106.47.5%34.3%35.8%
90 days77250.271.380.495.384.37718.0%14.4%19.1%89.8111.211.4%41.3%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 24%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.353.542.529.475.42816.7%29.2%20.7%87.9102.77.7%38.5%53.8%
Last 15 G1568.268.382.446.365.35520.6%16.2%21.2%86.0107.59.3%32.6%30.2%
Last 30 G30135.283.393.398.358.34619.3%15.6%16.8%87.1107.55.7%33.0%34.1%
90 days78352.259.369.473.371.37118.8%14.8%18.6%90.2111.210.8%42.7%37.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 232 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 22%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 15%
Miguel Vargas · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating93Top tier
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.370 / .377results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker92.0102.714.794Single
Sep 24RHPSinker91.196.313.907Single
Sep 23RHPCutter91.064.228.725Single
Sep 23LHPFastball91.795.666.020Out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.060.214.179Out
Sep 23LHPFastball95.676.710.301Double play
Sep 22LHPCurveball83.495.2-6.241Single
Sep 22LHPChangeup85.082.4-21.041Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.293.874.006Out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.488.920.475Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup86.893.96.487Single
Sep 19RHPSlider92.1102.2331.116Home run
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24622013
Sep 23411000
Sep 22511010
Sep 20511031
Sep 19414120
Sep 18526101
Sep 17400011
Sep 16411001
Sep 15511010
Sep 14525110

Two strikes

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes
Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sweeper19%26%66.7%33.3%20.5%
Sinker26%22%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball19%13%–0.0%21.3%
Changeup11%9%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Miguel Vargas bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Miguel Vargas with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.1%41.6%
Whiff%19.3%21.7%
Contact%80.7%78.3%
Chase%38.8%40.0%
wOBA.220.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes12.4%14.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.356
K%19.0%
BB%13.9%
Whiff%8.4%
Barrel%6.9%
Hard-hit%28.1%
Avg EV90.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

102 PA
wOBA.340
xwOBA vs this mix.338against pitches like his
RV/1000.03
Hard-hit%28.9%
K%20.7%
BB%14.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.3%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.3%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%11.1%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo84.5
BTB Stuff83
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball26%7789.15.6%
Sinker26%8888.80.0%
Curveball19%7778.47.7%
Sweeper19%9278.923.1%
Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Miguel Vargas: every projection we've made →