MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 4Munetaka Murakami
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.315wOBA vs LHP.372xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · COLJose Quintana
Throws leftBTB Stuff 83Stable
3.1projected K11%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jose Quintana's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 26% usage, 88.4 mph, +3.7″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .367 vs league .366 (about even).Fastball 26%Sinker: 26% usage, 88.8 mph, +10.6″ arm side, +10.0″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .354 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 26%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Munetaka Murakami's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Munetaka Murakami's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 82.7 mph at -3°Single: 102.3 mph at 23°Double: 107.1 mph at 20°Out: 106.8 mph at 45°Out: 100.5 mph at 35°Out: 96.2 mph at 0°Home run: 109.1 mph at 24°Out: 91.6 mph at -15°Out: 83.7 mph at -26°Single: 73.7 mph at 31°Out: 66.3 mph at -34°Out: 94.7 mph at 7°Home run: 109.1 mph at 35°Triple: 88.5 mph at 9°Out: 72.7 mph at -8°Out: 90.7 mph at -28°Single: 104.6 mph at 13°Out: 80.8 mph at -8°Out: 66.1 mph at -59°Out: 84.6 mph at 25°Out: 97.3 mph at 39°Out: 93.6 mph at 9°Home run: 110.0 mph at 43°Single: 98.5 mph at 5°Out: 98.4 mph at 52°Out: 89.2 mph at -34°Home run: 103.6 mph at 49°Out: 97.5 mph at 58°Out: 107.6 mph at 47°Out: 75.2 mph at -3°Out: 86.9 mph at -17°Out: 82.5 mph at 53°Out: 59.7 mph at 5°Single: 107.2 mph at 17°Out: 106.0 mph at 47°Out: 107.5 mph at 52°Out: 92.6 mph at 54°Out: 82.6 mph at 40°Out: 92.2 mph at 72°Out: 85.7 mph at 8°
45% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.6%52.3%+3.3
2+ total bases35.5%33.0%+2.4
Home run15.8%14.8%+1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+1.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Munetaka Murakami against each of Jose Quintana's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball26%88.4+4″ / +13″.367.36634.2%19.5%24About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker26%88.8+11″ / +10″.354.35320.5%10.7%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Munetaka Murakami · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.667.000.467.6490.0%50.0%0.0%98.3100.50.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1021.167.524.417.438.53623.8%33.3%34.5%95.9109.114.3%57.1%28.6%
Last 30 G1833.150.485.300.391.45730.3%33.3%35.7%94.6109.110.0%50.0%30.0%
90 days4791.157.352.314.314.38633.0%20.9%39.1%94.1113.417.5%62.5%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 28%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.267.353.533.379.38241.2%5.9%38.7%94.6109.137.5%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1441.167.268.417.296.26648.8%7.3%46.5%90.1110.025.0%37.5%37.5%
Last 30 G2996.133.250.289.246.21946.9%11.5%40.8%91.9110.015.8%42.1%26.3%
90 days64203.181.310.421.323.29440.4%14.3%41.2%92.9111.918.2%50.0%30.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 88 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 16%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.235.435.471.402.45130.4%17.4%30.8%95.4109.130.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1562.167.355.417.344.35840.3%16.1%43.0%91.9110.021.7%43.5%34.8%
Last 30 G30129.136.310.291.284.28042.6%17.1%39.6%92.5110.014.6%43.8%27.1%
90 days67294.174.323.390.320.32338.1%16.3%40.6%93.3113.418.0%53.9%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 128 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 11%
Munetaka Murakami · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating73Above average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.319 / .339running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup83.982.7-3.130Force out
Sep 24RHPFastball96.9102.323.859Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper80.8107.1201.074Double
Sep 23RHPSinker89.6106.845.453Out
Sep 23LHPFastball95.7100.535.688Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.896.20.383Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball81.6109.1241.946Home run
Sep 20RHPCutter88.891.6-15.148Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball86.683.7-26.052Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball85.473.731.398Single
Sep 18RHPSlider85.766.3-34.069Out
Sep 18LHPSinker91.594.77.573Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511012
Sep 23412001
Sep 22514111
Sep 20500021
Sep 19411002
Sep 18500012
Sep 17427102
Sep 16200010
Sep 15500014
Sep 14500013

Two strikes

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes
Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sweeper19%26%66.7%33.3%20.5%
Sinker26%22%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball19%13%–0.0%21.3%
Changeup11%9%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Munetaka Murakami bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Munetaka Murakami with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%48.3%44.1%
Whiff%28.3%22.7%
Contact%71.7%77.3%
Chase%32.8%38.1%
wOBA.214.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.0%14.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.318
K%35.9%
BB%15.0%
Whiff%15.0%
Barrel%7.2%
Hard-hit%23.8%
Avg EV92.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

91 PA
wOBA.315
xwOBA vs this mix.372against pitches like his
RV/100-0.11
Hard-hit%26.9%
K%32.5%
BB%15.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.3%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.3%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%11.1%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo84.5
BTB Stuff83
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball26%7789.15.6%
Sinker26%8888.80.0%
Curveball19%7778.47.7%
Sweeper19%9278.923.1%
Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Munetaka Murakami: every projection we've made →