MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 2Tommy Pham
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerHot
.352wOBA vs LHP.365xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · COLJose Quintana
Throws leftBTB Stuff 83Stable
3.1projected K11%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jose Quintana's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 28% usage, 90.7 mph, +13.4″ arm side, +12.7″ rise. Tommy Pham: wOBA .362 vs league .365 (about even).Sinker 28%Fastball: 26% usage, 90.9 mph, +3.2″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. Tommy Pham: wOBA .360 vs league .363 (about even).Fastball 26%Changeup: 19% usage, 85.9 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Tommy Pham: wOBA .302 vs league .307 (about even).Changeup 19%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.0 mph, -6.6″ arm side, -7.8″ rise. Tommy Pham: wOBA .306 vs league .310 (about even).Curveball 19%Sweeper: 8% usage, 78.6 mph, -10.6″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Tommy Pham: wOBA .313 vs league .317 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Tommy Pham's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Tommy Pham's last 8 balls in playHit (3)Out (5)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.6 mph at -3°Single: 108.8 mph at 12°Out: 87.3 mph at 7°Single: 104.5 mph at 11°Home run: 106.5 mph at 24°Out: 104.4 mph at -6°Out: 95.3 mph at 57°Out: 90.2 mph at -23°
75% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.0%59.5%+2.5
2+ total bases38.6%36.0%+2.7
Home run12.0%10.1%+1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Tommy Pham hits
Tommy Pham · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .127 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 3 pitches seen.262xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .385 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .385 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .340 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .340 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .273 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .273 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .419 shrunk (raw .585 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 8 pitches seen.419xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 3 pitches seen.332xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .346 · 6 pitches seen.373xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .289 · 11 pitches seen.298xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .257 · 4 pitches seen.291
vs LHP · 48 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 21%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 23%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 100% of 3 swings · league 10%100%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 11%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 17%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 16%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 48%100%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 34%100%
vs LHP · 48 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 63%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 71%100%Swings at 0% of 3 pitches · league 64%0%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 67%50%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 76%60%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 72%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 59%0%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 68%75%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 0% of 3 pitches · league 30%0%Swings at 0% of 6 pitches · league 26%0%Swings at 18% of 11 pitches · league 31%18%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 41%25%
vs LHP · 48 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Tommy Pham against each of Jose Quintana's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker28%90.7+13″ / +13″.362.36513.9%15.8%203About league average vs these
Fastball26%90.9+3″ / +16″.360.36314.2%15.6%195About league average vs these
Changeup19%85.9+14″ / +5″.302.30727.4%29.5%69About league average vs these
Curveball19%78.0-7″ / -8″.306.31020.2%26.6%47About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper8%78.6-11″ / -1″.313.31720.5%26.8%55About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Tommy Pham · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.250.500.625.475.50425.0%33.3%41.2%102.5108.820.0%100.0%40.0%
Last 15 G613.222.462.556.438.46923.1%30.8%38.9%100.5108.816.7%83.3%33.3%
Last 30 G613.222.462.556.438.46923.1%30.8%38.9%100.5108.816.7%83.3%33.3%
90 days613.222.462.556.438.46923.1%30.8%38.9%100.5108.816.7%83.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 6 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 33%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G12.500.500.500.450.7080.0%0.0%0.0%95.9104.50.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G12.500.500.500.450.7080.0%0.0%0.0%95.9104.50.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G12.500.500.500.450.7080.0%0.0%0.0%95.9104.50.0%50.0%50.0%
90 days12.500.500.500.450.7080.0%0.0%0.0%95.9104.50.0%50.0%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 2 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 50%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.300.500.600.471.53321.4%28.6%35.0%100.6108.814.3%85.7%42.9%
Last 15 G615.273.467.545.440.50120.0%26.7%33.3%99.3108.812.5%75.0%37.5%
Last 30 G615.273.467.545.440.50120.0%26.7%33.3%99.3108.812.5%75.0%37.5%
90 days615.273.467.545.440.50120.0%26.7%33.3%99.3108.812.5%75.0%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 8 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 38%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 13%
FormHot
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.440 / .509running 70 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/6
2+ total bases1/6
Home run1/6

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 8 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 22LHPFastball93.397.6-3.313Out
Sep 20LHPSinker91.0108.812.921Single
Sep 18RHPFastball94.187.37.504Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.4104.511.911Single
Sep 16LHPCurveball80.7106.5241.727Home run
Sep 16LHPFastball97.0104.4-6.279Out
Sep 16LHPFastball95.095.357.013Out
Sep 2LHPSinker94.890.2-23.056Out
Last 6 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 22300020
Sep 20111000
Sep 18311010
Sep 17300012
Sep 16414101
Sep 2100000

Two strikes

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes
Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Sweeper19%26%66.7%33.3%21.2%
Sinker26%22%0.0%0.0%17.8%
Curveball19%13%–0.0%20.9%
Changeup11%9%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Tommy Pham bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Tommy Pham with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.5%41.4%
Whiff%21.3%22.0%
Contact%78.7%78.0%
Chase%28.9%40.7%
wOBA.258.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.0%15.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.327
K%21.3%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%10.7%
Barrel%4.5%
Hard-hit%31.2%
Avg EV91.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

13 PA
wOBA.352
xwOBA vs this mix.365against pitches like his
RV/1001.10
Hard-hit%29.9%
K%22.6%
BB%13.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS7 days' rest
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 63.6%64%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 10.4%10%56 strikeouts: 5.3%5%67 strikeouts: 2.3%2%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%11.1%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo84.5
BTB Stuff83
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball26%7789.15.6%
Sinker26%8888.80.0%
Curveball19%7778.47.7%
Sweeper19%9278.923.1%
Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Tommy Pham: every projection we've made →