MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 6Tristan Peters
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedCold
.345wOBA vs LHP.347xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · COLJose Quintana
Throws leftBTB Stuff 83Stable
3.1projected K11%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jose Quintana's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 26% usage, 88.4 mph, +3.7″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .372 vs league .366 (about even).Fastball 26%Sinker: 26% usage, 88.8 mph, +10.6″ arm side, +10.0″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .360 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 26%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Tristan Peters's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Tristan Peters's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.1 mph at 7°Out: 97.5 mph at -12°Single: 103.6 mph at 1°Out: 80.4 mph at 22°Out: 74.9 mph at -27°Out: 100.4 mph at 17°Out: 55.6 mph at 55°Out: 26.1 mph at -79°Out: 60.9 mph at 58°Out: 76.8 mph at -3°Out: 82.1 mph at 69°Out: 95.8 mph at 33°Out: 92.9 mph at -9°Out: 101.5 mph at -7°Double: 100.8 mph at 12°Out: 86.7 mph at -26°Out: 65.3 mph at 4°Single: 99.5 mph at 18°Out: 79.4 mph at 44°Out: 81.4 mph at -18°Out: 71.2 mph at 52°Single: 102.5 mph at 2°Out: 83.0 mph at -36°Out: 93.7 mph at 57°Out: 74.5 mph at 62°Out: 61.3 mph at -11°Out: 91.2 mph at -3°Double: 105.9 mph at 20°Out: 103.3 mph at 4°Double: 72.6 mph at 31°Single: 98.5 mph at 4°Out: 101.1 mph at 21°Double: 97.0 mph at 21°Out: 95.4 mph at 73°Single: 69.4 mph at 35°Out: 100.0 mph at 40°Single: 70.7 mph at 27°Out: 100.9 mph at 35°Out: 76.6 mph at -16°Single: 96.4 mph at 1°
45% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.4%57.2%+2.2
2+ total bases35.3%33.7%+1.6
Home run10.2%10.1%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Tristan Peters against each of Jose Quintana's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball26%88.4+4″ / +13″.372.36619.4%19.5%10About league average vs these
Sinker26%88.8+11″ / +10″.360.35310.6%10.7%16About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Tristan Peters · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.000.200.000.140.4290.0%20.0%11.1%67.0100.40.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G812.250.500.375.413.43516.7%16.7%10.0%73.2100.40.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 30 G1423.278.435.556.426.40421.7%13.0%22.2%82.8103.37.7%46.2%46.2%
90 days2841.250.415.406.373.37819.5%17.1%18.6%77.7103.34.2%37.5%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 25%Line drive 29%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.182.100.145.19036.4%0.0%21.1%84.9103.60.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1544.154.250.231.226.24625.0%4.5%17.6%88.4105.93.6%46.4%17.9%
Last 30 G2985.253.341.493.360.33120.0%7.1%19.3%88.9106.48.6%50.0%25.9%
90 days73215.251.316.441.333.31819.1%6.0%22.0%87.8106.46.5%40.0%32.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 155 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.071.188.071.144.26525.0%6.2%17.9%77.7103.60.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1556.170.304.255.266.28623.2%7.1%16.2%85.7105.92.9%44.1%23.5%
Last 30 G30108.258.361.505.374.34720.4%8.3%19.8%87.8106.48.5%49.3%29.6%
90 days74256.251.332.436.339.32719.1%7.8%21.6%86.5106.46.1%39.7%33.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 179 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 24%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 12%
Tristan Peters · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating66Above average
Last 100 pitches52trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.342 / .332results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker91.5101.17.589Out
Sep 24RHPSinker97.197.5-12.169Force out
Sep 24RHPSinker91.3103.61.456Single
Sep 24LHPSlider87.480.422.717Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball80.174.9-27.044Out
Sep 23LHPFastball96.2100.417.542Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.455.655.008Out
Sep 16LHPSlider87.126.1-79.185Out
Sep 16LHPChangeup87.760.958.003Out
Sep 16RHPSlider89.376.8-3.095Out
Sep 14RHPFastball97.082.169.007Out
Sep 14RHPCurveball80.295.833.285Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511001
Sep 23400000
Sep 22100001
Sep 18200011
Sep 16400001
Sep 15400012
Sep 14500011
Sep 13412000
Sep 12511001
Sep 11300011

Two strikes

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes
Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sweeper19%26%66.7%33.3%20.5%
Sinker26%22%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball19%13%–0.0%21.3%
Changeup11%9%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Tristan Peters bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Tristan Peters with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.6%44.1%
Whiff%21.5%22.7%
Contact%78.5%77.3%
Chase%38.3%38.1%
wOBA.220.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes13.8%14.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.303
K%20.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.7%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%27.2%
Avg EV86.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

41 PA
wOBA.345
xwOBA vs this mix.347against pitches like his
RV/1000.98
Hard-hit%24.2%
K%21.0%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.3%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.3%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%11.1%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo84.5
BTB Stuff83
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball26%7789.15.6%
Sinker26%8888.80.0%
Curveball19%7778.47.7%
Sweeper19%9278.923.1%
Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Tristan Peters: every projection we've made →