MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · WSH · batting 2Abimelec Ortiz
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.273wOBA vs RHP.292xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.7projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 95.1 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +19.2″ rise. Abimelec Ortiz: wOBA .334 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 50%Changeup: 26% usage, 86.6 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Abimelec Ortiz: wOBA .297 vs league .312 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 26%Cutter: 12% usage, 90.7 mph, -2.3″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Abimelec Ortiz: wOBA .347 vs league .362 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 12%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.2 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -14.9″ rise. Abimelec Ortiz: wOBA .273 vs league .288 (about even).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Abimelec Ortiz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Abimelec Ortiz's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 95.8 mph at 18°Out: 78.3 mph at 68°Out: 108.0 mph at 15°Out: 91.9 mph at 29°Out: 84.0 mph at 65°Out: 87.0 mph at 38°Out: 80.1 mph at 5°Out: 87.1 mph at -23°Out: 95.5 mph at 56°Out: 102.5 mph at 42°Single: 101.6 mph at 15°Double: 105.6 mph at 16°Double: 105.7 mph at 16°Out: 64.0 mph at -8°Single: 76.9 mph at 33°Out: 105.6 mph at 19°Out: 70.2 mph at 50°Out: 89.9 mph at 10°Single: 112.2 mph at 2°Out: 81.1 mph at 67°Out: 83.0 mph at -2°Out: 81.3 mph at -16°Out: 57.8 mph at 22°Out: 76.3 mph at 5°Out: 87.3 mph at 38°Out: 92.4 mph at 27°Out: 82.0 mph at 64°Out: 97.0 mph at 46°Out: 82.8 mph at -17°Out: 68.2 mph at -36°Single: 85.0 mph at 14°Single: 98.9 mph at 10°Out: 108.5 mph at 0°Out: 79.6 mph at 74°Single: 92.3 mph at 2°Double: 103.4 mph at 17°Out: 95.7 mph at 19°Out: 89.4 mph at -15°Out: 87.9 mph at 48°Out: 69.2 mph at -29°
35% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.0%58.5%-1.6
2+ total bases35.8%37.2%-1.4
Home run11.3%12.2%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Abimelec Ortiz hits
Where they meet

.297 xwOBA for Abimelec Ortiz in the spots Jonah Tong throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .316 (-19 points). His best spot against righties is up-middle, and Jonah Tong puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jonah Tong · where he throws to left-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing2%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing11%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing6%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing21%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%16% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing16%
All · 176 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%30% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters30%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 73 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Cutter · 44 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16%30% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 43 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%19% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Curveball · 16 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Abimelec Ortiz · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .386 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 23 pitches seen.302xwOBA .412 shrunk (raw .622 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 23 pitches seen.412xwOBA .202 shrunk (raw .057 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 20 pitches seen.202xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .483 on 10 PA) · league .342 · 24 pitches seen.406xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .312 on 11 PA) · league .386 · 27 pitches seen.351xwOBA .220 shrunk (raw .019 on 6 PA) · league .321 · 18 pitches seen.220xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .303 on 14 PA) · league .308 · 32 pitches seen.305xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .257 on 9 PA) · league .351 · 26 pitches seen.311xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .516 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 31 pitches seen.348xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .369 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 80 pitches seen.373xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .016 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.222xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .276 on 24 PA) · league .263 · 86 pitches seen.272xwOBA .211 shrunk (raw .160 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 99 pitches seen.211
vs RHP · 525 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 20%11%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 19%18%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 9%15%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 11%10%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 13%20%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 17%10%Whiff 22% of 18 swings · league 28%22%Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 24%40%Whiff 24% of 38 swings · league 32%24%Whiff 40% of 45 swings · league 49%40%
vs RHP · 525 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 70% of 23 pitches · league 62%70%Swings at 83% of 23 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 55% of 20 pitches · league 66%55%Swings at 79% of 24 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 74% of 27 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 70%56%Swings at 72% of 32 pitches · league 65%72%Swings at 58% of 26 pitches · league 68%58%Swings at 65% of 31 pitches · league 60%65%Swings at 23% of 80 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 28% of 36 pitches · league 34%28%Swings at 44% of 86 pitches · league 40%44%Swings at 46% of 99 pitches · league 32%46%
vs RHP · 525 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Abimelec Ortiz against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%95.1+5″ / +19″.334.34916.6%17.7%29About league average vs these
Changeup26%86.6+14″ / +9″.297.31226.4%26.1%13About league average vs these
Cutter12%90.7-2″ / +14″.347.36215.2%16.6%13About league average vs these
Curveball10%78.2-6″ / -15″.273.28827.3%28.7%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Abimelec Ortiz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.000.091.000.064.18927.3%9.1%17.2%90.3108.00.0%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1534.125.176.188.164.22535.3%5.9%19.7%90.3112.25.0%45.0%45.0%
Last 30 G3087.136.195.222.190.23726.4%6.9%23.3%88.7112.23.4%36.2%39.7%
90 days43123.190.236.362.269.29524.4%5.7%21.6%90.4112.28.2%41.2%43.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 85 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 25%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.2020.0%0.0%20.0%80.180.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G33.333.333.333.300.1650.0%0.0%22.2%80.083.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G78.250.250.250.225.10550.0%0.0%23.8%83.192.30.0%0.0%0.0%
90 days810.200.200.200.180.09250.0%0.0%23.1%77.992.30.0%0.0%20.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 80%Line drive 0%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.000.083.000.058.19025.0%8.3%17.6%89.0108.00.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1537.143.189.200.175.22032.4%5.4%20.0%88.9112.24.3%39.1%39.1%
Last 30 G3095.146.200.225.193.22528.4%6.3%23.4%88.3112.23.2%33.9%37.1%
90 days43133.190.233.349.262.28026.3%5.3%21.7%89.7112.27.8%38.9%42.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 23%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 10%
Abimelec Ortiz · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating29Below average
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.259 / .295running 36 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 21RHPCurveball83.595.818.449Out
Sep 21RHPSinker95.378.368.004Out
Sep 21RHPFastball97.7108.015.748Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.991.929.116Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup85.784.065.003Out
Sep 19RHPFastball93.787.038.014Out
Sep 19LHPSinker91.080.15.202Out
Sep 16RHPCurveball81.787.1-23.047Out
Sep 15RHPCutter90.795.556.015Out
Sep 13RHPChangeup83.7102.542.421Out
Sep 12RHPChangeup92.5101.615.679Single
Sep 12RHPSinker99.8105.616.662Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25100001
Sep 21300000
Sep 20100000
Sep 19300000
Sep 16400012
Sep 15100000
Sep 13300002
Sep 12323010
Sep 11100001
Sep 8312002

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.3%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.4%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%18.7%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.7%
Abimelec Ortiz bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Abimelec Ortiz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.7%41.3%
Whiff%19.2%21.6%
Contact%80.8%78.4%
Chase%44.7%39.4%
wOBA.237.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.3%19.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.293
K%24.9%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%26.2%
Avg EV89.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

123 PA
wOBA.273
xwOBA vs this mix.292against pitches like his
RV/100-0.76
Hard-hit%28.0%
K%24.5%
BB%5.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH6 days' rest
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.3%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.8%13%78 strikeouts: 9.2%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.5%13%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 11 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Abimelec Ortiz: every projection we've made →