MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 5Brett Baty
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.300wOBA vs LHP.329xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · WSHConnelly Early
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
3.8projected K33%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brett Baty's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 78.2 mph at -23°Out: 101.5 mph at 39°Single: 69.5 mph at 20°Home run: 110.2 mph at 36°Out: 74.1 mph at 5°Double: 106.3 mph at 13°Single: 94.4 mph at -10°Single: 89.5 mph at 12°Single: 110.1 mph at 18°Single: 95.7 mph at 14°Out: 91.6 mph at 22°Single: 96.0 mph at -23°Out: 78.9 mph at 41°Out: 102.4 mph at 0°Out: 91.8 mph at 39°Single: 108.2 mph at 15°Out: 82.2 mph at 57°Out: 82.5 mph at 42°Double: 94.2 mph at 27°Out: 90.9 mph at 1°Out: 85.1 mph at 40°Single: 84.7 mph at 4°Home run: 111.7 mph at 34°Out: 94.2 mph at 23°Out: 105.2 mph at 16°Out: 92.0 mph at 45°Double: 102.3 mph at 23°Out: 81.0 mph at 48°Out: 97.4 mph at 4°Home run: 104.5 mph at 36°Out: 90.4 mph at 21°Out: 88.0 mph at -2°Double: 99.8 mph at 35°Double: 106.1 mph at 21°Out: 98.3 mph at 50°Out: 86.0 mph at 38°Single: 42.4 mph at -50°Double: 107.0 mph at 20°Out: 88.9 mph at 36°Out: 106.8 mph at 16°
45% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.1%62.6%-2.5
2+ total bases35.9%38.6%-2.6
Home run12.6%15.1%-2.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.9
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.0
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-2.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brett Baty · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G33.667.667.667.600.6690.0%0.0%0.0%84.6110.133.3%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G77.333.429.333.357.4810.0%14.3%0.0%87.9110.116.7%33.3%50.0%
Last 30 G912.400.500.400.417.4660.0%16.7%4.8%87.4110.110.0%40.0%50.0%
90 days2234.207.324.241.272.34220.6%14.7%14.5%86.8110.14.5%40.9%40.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 22 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 41%Fly ball 9%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.571.6671.143.717.64911.1%22.2%26.7%96.7110.216.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1536.414.500.828.538.46416.7%16.7%30.1%95.0111.716.7%45.8%33.3%
Last 30 G3071.350.437.650.456.41421.1%14.1%30.6%94.0114.017.4%50.0%37.0%
90 days60158.291.348.546.378.36724.1%8.9%30.1%93.7114.013.2%49.1%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 106 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 27%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.600.6671.000.688.6548.3%16.7%18.2%92.6110.222.2%44.4%44.4%
Last 15 G1543.400.488.743.508.46714.0%16.3%25.0%93.5111.716.7%43.3%36.7%
Last 30 G3083.357.446.614.450.42118.1%14.5%27.3%92.8114.016.1%48.2%39.3%
90 days60192.276.344.494.359.36223.4%9.9%27.7%92.5114.011.7%47.7%38.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 128 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 30%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 7%
Brett Baty · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating88Excellent
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.361 / .364results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball94.178.2-23.037Out
Sep 24RHPSlider82.7101.539.591Out
Sep 24LHPFastball92.769.520.844Single
Sep 23RHPFastball90.4110.2362.000Home run
Sep 22LHPSlider83.674.15.202Force out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.8106.313.883Double
Sep 20RHPSlider87.294.4-10.180Single
Sep 19RHPFastball96.589.512.751Single
Sep 19LHPCutter84.7110.118.962Single
Sep 18RHPChangeup81.995.714.877Single
Sep 18RHPFastball94.491.622.155Out
Sep 16RHPCutter91.996.0-23.101Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24311000
Sep 23114100
Sep 22312010
Sep 20111000
Sep 19422011
Sep 18411011
Sep 17300021
Sep 16411001
Sep 15211000
Sep 14400011

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper18%36%75.0%37.5%20.5%
Fastball20%23%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sinker23%18%0.0%25.0%17.7%
Changeup20%14%–0.0%18.3%
Slider16%9%50.0%50.0%21.6%
Brett Baty bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brett Baty with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.5%44.1%
Whiff%20.4%22.7%
Contact%79.6%77.3%
Chase%37.0%38.1%
wOBA.226.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.348
K%23.7%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%13.9%
Barrel%7.7%
Hard-hit%31.4%
Avg EV92.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

34 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.329against pitches like his
RV/100-0.45
Hard-hit%26.6%
K%22.0%
BB%9.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 46.8%47%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 14.8%15%56 strikeouts: 9.5%10%67 strikeouts: 5.3%5%78 strikeouts: 2.5%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.7%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.3%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Velo88.8
BTB Stuff94
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker23%10192.90.0%
Changeup20%8484.68.3%
Fastball20%10194.90.0%
Sweeper18%9784.027.3%
Slider16%8487.720.0%
Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brett Baty: every projection we've made →