MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 4CJ Abrams
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedHot
.366wOBA vs RHP.352xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.8projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.5″ arm side, +19.6″ rise. CJ Abrams: wOBA .361 vs league .346 (hitter's edge).Fastball 44%Cutter: 23% usage, 90.1 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. CJ Abrams: wOBA .388 vs league .373 (hitter's edge).Cutter 23%Changeup: 23% usage, 87.4 mph, +14.4″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. CJ Abrams: wOBA .312 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Changeup 23%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.7 mph, -6.8″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. CJ Abrams: wOBA .326 vs league .312 (about even).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is CJ Abrams's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

CJ Abrams's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 83.0 mph at 14°Out: 72.6 mph at -1°Home run: 104.2 mph at 30°Home run: 106.4 mph at 26°Out: 91.9 mph at 70°Out: 94.1 mph at 21°Home run: 101.2 mph at 30°Out: 89.1 mph at -2°Out: 76.5 mph at 57°Out: 92.3 mph at -21°Out: 94.3 mph at 28°Out: 69.3 mph at -44°Out: 74.0 mph at 14°Out: 77.2 mph at 31°Out: 80.5 mph at -36°Out: 94.0 mph at 21°Single: 71.3 mph at 20°Out: 69.8 mph at -5°Double: 101.9 mph at 20°Out: 81.4 mph at -20°Out: 94.6 mph at 75°Double: 101.7 mph at 5°Out: 95.3 mph at 1°Single: 97.6 mph at 15°Out: 93.7 mph at 6°Single: 99.9 mph at 3°Out: 87.4 mph at 44°Out: 110.5 mph at 19°Double: 100.7 mph at 16°Out: 85.8 mph at 1°Double: 102.0 mph at 11°Single: 71.0 mph at 18°Out: 90.6 mph at -22°Out: 104.5 mph at 16°Out: 95.6 mph at 52°Out: 77.5 mph at 8°Out: 92.7 mph at 27°Out: 107.0 mph at 17°Out: 69.3 mph at -11°Home run: 106.5 mph at 23°
38% hit 95+ mph53% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.4%59.9%+1.5
2+ total bases38.6%36.5%+2.1
Home run15.8%14.0%+1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
+2.3
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+2.2
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

CJ Abrams against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%94.6+7″ / +20″.361.34617.6%17.1%46About league average vs these
Cutter23%90.1-3″ / +15″.388.37316.8%16.0%35About league average vs these
Changeup23%87.4+14″ / +9″.312.29729.1%26.7%27About league average vs these
Curveball10%78.7-7″ / -13″.326.31232.7%27.7%14About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
CJ Abrams · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.182.308.727.425.43830.8%15.4%37.0%94.3106.428.6%28.6%71.4%
Last 15 G1541.250.341.500.364.36922.0%12.2%30.1%91.5110.511.1%40.7%44.4%
Last 30 G2889.195.303.338.290.28725.8%12.4%27.7%89.5110.57.4%33.3%31.5%
90 days65202.263.351.509.371.36122.8%11.4%25.3%90.1110.510.0%41.5%36.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 130 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.286.375.714.450.4580.0%12.5%31.6%80.8101.214.3%14.3%42.9%
Last 15 G1123.227.261.545.337.39130.4%4.3%32.1%87.6107.020.0%33.3%66.7%
Last 30 G2141.150.171.350.220.29531.7%2.4%31.5%88.7107.014.8%37.0%40.7%
90 days49104.200.221.420.278.24437.5%2.9%33.2%87.0107.09.7%33.9%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 26%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.222.333.722.435.44619.0%14.3%34.8%87.6106.421.4%21.4%57.1%
Last 15 G1564.241.312.517.354.37725.0%9.4%31.0%90.1110.514.3%38.1%52.4%
Last 30 G30130.179.262.342.268.29027.7%9.2%28.9%89.2110.59.9%34.6%34.6%
90 days69306.240.307.476.339.32127.8%8.5%28.1%89.1110.59.9%39.1%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 192 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 24%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 13%
CJ Abrams · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating59Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.345 / .326running 18 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPCurveball78.283.014.855Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.772.6-1.117Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.9104.2301.594Home run
Sep 22RHPFastball94.8106.4261.860Home run
Sep 22RHPFastball96.591.970.007Out
Sep 21RHPSlider90.694.121.222Out
Sep 20LHPSlider84.1101.2301.090Home run
Sep 20LHPCurveball75.189.1-2.239Force out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.676.557.063Out
Sep 19RHPFastball93.592.3-21.122Out
Sep 19RHPFastball94.594.328.215Out
Sep 19LHPSinker92.769.3-44.192Force out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23411020
Sep 22428201
Sep 21300002
Sep 20414101
Sep 19600010
Sep 18411001
Sep 16412000
Sep 13423000
Sep 12523000
Sep 11423001

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.0%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.6%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.1%
CJ Abrams bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
CJ Abrams with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.8%41.0%
Whiff%24.1%21.3%
Contact%75.9%78.7%
Chase%43.2%39.6%
wOBA.249.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.1%19.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.338
K%26.3%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%13.6%
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%25.3%
Avg EV89.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

198 PA
wOBA.366
xwOBA vs this mix.352against pitches like his
RV/1000.85
Hard-hit%26.9%
K%22.8%
BB%8.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.1%17%≤34 strikeouts: 14.3%14%45 strikeouts: 16.4%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.2%13%78 strikeouts: 9.6%10%89+ strikeouts: 13.5%14%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.CJ Abrams: every projection we've made →