MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · WSH · batting 7Daylen Lile
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.347wOBA vs RHP.360xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.7projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 95.1 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +19.2″ rise. Daylen Lile: wOBA .369 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Fastball 50%Changeup: 26% usage, 86.6 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Daylen Lile: wOBA .332 vs league .312 (hitter's edge).Changeup 26%Cutter: 12% usage, 90.7 mph, -2.3″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Daylen Lile: wOBA .382 vs league .362 (hitter's edge).Cutter 12%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.2 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -14.9″ rise. Daylen Lile: wOBA .308 vs league .288 (hitter's edge).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Daylen Lile's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Daylen Lile's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.5 mph at 46°Single: 102.7 mph at -11°Single: 106.2 mph at 10°Out: 100.1 mph at 37°Out: 91.7 mph at 40°Out: 82.6 mph at 22°Out: 98.9 mph at 30°Out: 83.9 mph at -15°Out: 92.8 mph at 54°Out: 70.9 mph at 52°Out: 72.3 mph at -12°Double: 83.2 mph at 18°Out: 102.8 mph at 21°Single: 103.7 mph at 12°Out: 69.0 mph at 50°Out: 94.0 mph at -1°Home run: 103.3 mph at 27°Out: 94.7 mph at 20°Out: 91.2 mph at 45°Out: 68.0 mph at -3°Out: 77.7 mph at 48°Out: 86.8 mph at 36°Out: 64.6 mph at 58°Single: 49.8 mph at -63°Out: 74.2 mph at 39°Single: 104.7 mph at 14°Home run: 101.3 mph at 27°Out: 78.9 mph at 40°Triple: 105.0 mph at 23°Single: 102.6 mph at 13°Out: 80.4 mph at -4°Out: 89.8 mph at -32°Out: 86.6 mph at 31°Out: 86.2 mph at 61°Out: 93.1 mph at 45°Out: 102.5 mph at 31°Out: 70.1 mph at -12°Out: 105.1 mph at -10°Out: 96.0 mph at 60°Out: 61.9 mph at 0°
38% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.6%62.4%-0.8
2+ total bases39.1%40.1%-1.0
Home run13.4%14.7%-1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Daylen Lile hits
Where they meet

.329 xwOBA for Daylen Lile in the spots Jonah Tong throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .316 (+12 points). His best spot against righties is down-middle, and Jonah Tong puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jonah Tong · where he throws to left-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing2%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing11%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing6%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing21%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%16% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing16%
All · 176 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%30% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters30%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 73 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Cutter · 44 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16%30% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 43 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%19% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Curveball · 16 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Daylen Lile · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .497 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.370xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .490 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 41 pitches seen.395xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .190 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 20 pitches seen.242xwOBA .410 shrunk (raw .447 on 22 PA) · league .342 · 62 pitches seen.410xwOBA .374 shrunk (raw .366 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 46 pitches seen.374xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw .429 on 18 PA) · league .321 · 41 pitches seen.386xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .388 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 41 pitches seen.352xwOBA .454 shrunk (raw .515 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 35 pitches seen.454xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .400 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 36 pitches seen.350xwOBA .407 shrunk (raw .425 on 20 PA) · league .377 · 151 pitches seen.407xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .185 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 62 pitches seen.236xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .253 on 30 PA) · league .263 · 118 pitches seen.256xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .220 on 28 PA) · league .274 · 162 pitches seen.236
vs RHP · 858 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 14% of 29 swings · league 22%14%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 20%11%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 19%7%Whiff 23% of 52 swings · league 10%23%Whiff 12% of 41 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 0% of 33 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 12% of 33 swings · league 14%12%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 4% of 28 swings · league 17%4%Whiff 37% of 27 swings · league 28%37%Whiff 25% of 20 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 33% of 69 swings · league 32%33%Whiff 33% of 80 swings · league 49%33%
vs RHP · 858 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 43 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 68% of 41 pitches · league 72%68%Swings at 70% of 20 pitches · league 66%70%Swings at 84% of 62 pitches · league 70%84%Swings at 89% of 46 pitches · league 76%89%Swings at 81% of 41 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 81% of 41 pitches · league 65%81%Swings at 86% of 35 pitches · league 68%86%Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 60%78%Swings at 18% of 151 pitches · league 24%18%Swings at 32% of 62 pitches · league 34%32%Swings at 59% of 118 pitches · league 40%59%Swings at 49% of 162 pitches · league 32%49%
vs RHP · 858 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Daylen Lile against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%95.1+5″ / +19″.369.34914.3%17.7%161About league average vs these
Changeup26%86.6+14″ / +9″.332.31221.9%26.1%119About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter12%90.7-2″ / +14″.382.36213.8%16.6%115About league average vs these
Curveball10%78.2-6″ / -15″.308.28821.8%28.7%33About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Daylen Lile · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.100.100.100.090.2720.0%0.0%16.7%86.6106.210.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1537.171.216.400.286.27821.6%5.4%23.6%87.2106.214.8%33.3%25.9%
Last 30 G3088.256.341.615.417.41817.0%11.4%17.3%90.3107.017.5%44.4%36.5%
90 days74222.252.306.505.352.37219.8%6.8%19.8%90.2107.914.8%43.2%40.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 22%Fly ball 41%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.500.429.667.436.45528.6%0.0%26.7%98.5103.70.0%80.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1218.250.222.312.219.33722.2%0.0%23.5%90.2103.77.1%42.9%50.0%
Last 30 G2030.308.300.462.352.32523.3%3.3%27.1%89.1103.74.8%42.9%57.1%
90 days4173.221.233.368.298.26230.1%1.4%28.5%90.1109.86.4%44.7%48.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 47 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 30%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.250.235.312.232.34711.8%0.0%21.2%90.6106.26.7%46.7%40.0%
Last 15 G1555.196.218.373.264.29721.8%3.6%23.6%88.3106.212.2%36.6%34.1%
Last 30 G30118.269.331.577.400.39418.6%9.3%19.7%90.0107.014.3%44.0%41.7%
90 days76295.245.288.471.339.34522.4%5.4%21.9%90.2109.812.9%43.5%42.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 209 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 24%Fly ball 39%Pop-up 9%
Daylen Lile · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating84Excellent
Last 100 pitches84steady
wOBA / xwOBA.334 / .355running 21 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter81.997.546.041Out
Sep 25LHPSinker96.8102.7-11.270Single
Sep 25RHPChangeup85.6106.210.867Single
Sep 25LHPSweeper82.7100.137.390Sac fly
Sep 23RHPSlider82.791.740.019Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.382.622.553Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.298.930.828Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.883.9-15.088Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.492.854.003Out
Sep 21RHPChangeup86.670.952.144Out
Sep 21RHPChangeup90.972.3-12.046Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball75.683.218.903Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422000
Sep 23100000
Sep 22400001
Sep 21400001
Sep 20423000
Sep 19614103
Sep 18500010
Sep 16422000
Sep 15114100
Sep 13424001

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.3%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.4%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%18.7%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.7%
Daylen Lile bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Daylen Lile with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.3%41.3%
Whiff%18.6%21.6%
Contact%81.4%78.4%
Chase%42.8%39.4%
wOBA.274.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.8%19.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.348
K%21.8%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%8.0%
Hard-hit%30.6%
Avg EV89.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

222 PA
wOBA.347
xwOBA vs this mix.360against pitches like his
RV/1000.10
Hard-hit%30.9%
K%20.4%
BB%5.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH6 days' rest
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.3%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.8%13%78 strikeouts: 9.2%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.5%13%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 11 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Daylen Lile: every projection we've made →