MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYM · batting 8Francisco Alvarez
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedHot
.277wOBA vs LHP.293xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · WSHConnelly Early
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
3.8projected K33%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Connelly Early's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 34% usage, 94.0 mph, +10.2″ arm side, +16.0″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .344 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 34%Sinker: 19% usage, 92.6 mph, +17.8″ arm side, +7.9″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .352 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 19%Changeup: 19% usage, 83.7 mph, +11.2″ arm side, -2.5″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .298 vs league .307 (about even).Changeup 19%Curveball: 13% usage, 80.2 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -9.5″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .281 vs league .290 (about even).Curveball 13%Slider: 9% usage, 87.0 mph, -0.4″ arm side, +6.3″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .334 vs league .343 (about even).Slider 9%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.8 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -2.0″ rise. Francisco Alvarez: wOBA .288 vs league .296 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Francisco Alvarez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Francisco Alvarez's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.4 mph at -1°Out: 100.2 mph at 39°Single: 105.4 mph at 3°Out: 96.4 mph at 27°Single: 113.7 mph at 5°Out: 94.1 mph at 27°Double: 112.3 mph at 20°Double: 104.6 mph at 24°Out: 89.2 mph at 25°Single: 78.4 mph at 0°Out: 96.8 mph at 53°Single: 108.0 mph at -2°Home run: 102.2 mph at 30°Single: 98.8 mph at -7°Out: 93.8 mph at 62°Out: 73.3 mph at 15°Out: 56.4 mph at -42°Out: 96.7 mph at -8°Out: 99.5 mph at 33°Out: 75.1 mph at 65°Single: 101.2 mph at -6°Out: 56.5 mph at -57°Out: 96.2 mph at -8°Out: 77.9 mph at -76°Single: 108.6 mph at 13°Out: 103.3 mph at 16°Out: 111.5 mph at -8°Out: 103.1 mph at -16°Out: 109.6 mph at -18°Single: 87.6 mph at 16°Out: 81.4 mph at -6°Single: 104.3 mph at -7°Out: 65.6 mph at -68°Out: 93.4 mph at 23°Home run: 107.4 mph at 22°Home run: 107.5 mph at 24°Out: 97.8 mph at 38°Out: 103.3 mph at 3°Out: 96.8 mph at 30°Single: 96.7 mph at 15°
68% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.0%52.8%+0.2
2+ total bases33.3%32.7%+0.6
Home run13.3%12.8%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Francisco Alvarez hits
Francisco Alvarez · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .184 shrunk (raw .007 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 11 pitches seen.184xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .216 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 16 pitches seen.280xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .731 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 12 pitches seen.349xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .078 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 18 pitches seen.262xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .207 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 13 pitches seen.341xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .308 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 17 pitches seen.332xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .311 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 15 pitches seen.286xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .340 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 15 pitches seen.347xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .540 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 18 pitches seen.347xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .233 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 26 pitches seen.288xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .288 on 10 PA) · league .346 · 64 pitches seen.320xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .260 on 15 PA) · league .289 · 58 pitches seen.273xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .316 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 52 pitches seen.281
vs LHP · 335 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 19%40%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 21%20%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 23%33%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 9%25%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 10%33%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 11%30%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 16%20%Whiff 56% of 9 swings · league 25%56%Whiff 46% of 22 swings · league 29%46%Whiff 52% of 21 swings · league 48%52%Whiff 50% of 8 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 335 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 63%91%Swings at 94% of 16 pitches · league 71%94%Swings at 50% of 12 pitches · league 64%50%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 67%67%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 76%69%Swings at 59% of 17 pitches · league 72%59%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 59%53%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 68%60%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 66%56%Swings at 35% of 26 pitches · league 30%35%Swings at 34% of 64 pitches · league 26%34%Swings at 36% of 58 pitches · league 31%36%Swings at 15% of 52 pitches · league 41%15%
vs LHP · 335 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Francisco Alvarez against each of Connelly Early's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball34%94.0+10″ / +16″.344.35126.5%19.0%102About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker19%92.6+18″ / +8″.352.36020.8%14.8%75About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup19%83.7+11″ / -3″.298.30734.2%29.1%14About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball13%80.2-10″ / -10″.281.29032.3%29.9%39About league average vs these
Slider9%87.0-0″ / +6″.334.34327.4%24.7%65About league average vs these
Sweeper8%82.8-14″ / -2″.288.29633.7%30.6%32About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Francisco Alvarez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.364.364.455.441.32927.3%0.0%8.7%98.6112.312.5%75.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1019.263.263.474.361.42915.8%0.0%13.9%97.9112.312.5%75.0%43.8%
Last 30 G2341.184.244.289.262.30639.0%7.3%32.9%97.2112.39.1%63.6%45.5%
90 days3872.164.292.230.264.29240.3%13.9%35.6%93.0112.36.2%56.2%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 32 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 22%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.444.400.889.505.40530.0%0.0%28.6%100.4113.728.6%71.4%42.9%
Last 15 G1442.231.262.410.287.27840.5%4.8%33.7%93.0113.713.0%60.9%30.4%
Last 30 G2875.197.227.324.239.23841.3%4.0%35.8%90.4113.79.8%56.1%29.3%
90 days55156.248.314.454.332.31433.3%8.3%32.1%90.4113.716.7%50.0%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.400.381.650.471.36528.6%0.0%16.2%99.4113.720.0%73.3%40.0%
Last 15 G1561.241.262.431.310.32532.8%3.3%27.7%95.0113.712.8%66.7%35.9%
Last 30 G30116.193.233.312.247.26240.5%5.2%34.8%92.7113.79.5%58.7%34.9%
90 days58228.223.307.386.311.30735.5%10.1%33.3%91.0113.713.9%51.6%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 122 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 9%
Francisco Alvarez · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating64Average
Last 100 pitches91trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.312 / .330running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker90.997.4-1.309Double play
Sep 25RHPSlider88.5100.239.373Sac fly
Sep 23LHPChangeup81.3105.43.505Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup83.096.427.451Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.8113.75.672Single
Sep 22LHPCurveball82.394.127.202Error
Sep 22LHPFastball92.2112.3201.617Double
Sep 22RHPSplitter87.2104.6241.540Double
Sep 22RHPSinker91.189.225.087Out
Sep 20LHPSlider87.378.40.097Single
Sep 20LHPSinker95.296.853.009Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup89.1108.0-2.432Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 23422001
Sep 22524001
Sep 20422001
Sep 19425101
Sep 17300001
Sep 15500002
Sep 14411001
Sep 13311001
Sep 11400011

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper18%36%75.0%37.5%21.2%
Fastball20%23%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Sinker23%18%0.0%25.0%17.8%
Changeup20%14%–0.0%18.3%
Slider16%9%50.0%50.0%22.2%
Francisco Alvarez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Francisco Alvarez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.5%41.4%
Whiff%24.2%22.0%
Contact%75.8%78.0%
Chase%36.3%40.7%
wOBA.240.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.328
K%34.0%
BB%9.9%
Whiff%14.1%
Barrel%7.4%
Hard-hit%28.5%
Avg EV91.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

72 PA
wOBA.277
xwOBA vs this mix.293against pitches like his
RV/100-0.90
Hard-hit%25.4%
K%36.8%
BB%10.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM88 days' rest
3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 47.1%47%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 14.7%15%56 strikeouts: 9.4%9%67 strikeouts: 5.2%5%78 strikeouts: 2.5%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.7%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.3%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Velo88.8
BTB Stuff94
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker23%10192.90.0%
Changeup20%8484.68.3%
Fastball20%10194.90.0%
Sweeper18%9784.027.3%
Slider16%8487.720.0%
Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Francisco Alvarez: every projection we've made →