MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 1James Wood
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.396wOBA vs RHP.413xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.8projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.5″ arm side, +19.6″ rise. James Wood: wOBA .366 vs league .346 (hitter's edge).Fastball 44%Cutter: 23% usage, 90.1 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. James Wood: wOBA .393 vs league .373 (hitter's edge).Cutter 23%Changeup: 23% usage, 87.4 mph, +14.4″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. James Wood: wOBA .316 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Changeup 23%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.7 mph, -6.8″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. James Wood: wOBA .331 vs league .312 (hitter's edge).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is James Wood's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

James Wood's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.8 mph at -14°Out: 96.9 mph at -12°Single: 103.5 mph at 6°Out: 82.9 mph at -18°Single: 111.0 mph at -6°Out: 103.9 mph at 17°Out: 105.9 mph at -4°Out: 99.6 mph at 43°Single: 110.6 mph at 10°Single: 83.4 mph at 9°Out: 89.5 mph at -25°Double: 87.9 mph at 12°Out: 78.8 mph at 6°Out: 98.7 mph at 41°Out: 106.7 mph at -25°Out: 108.4 mph at -10°Out: 102.2 mph at 8°Out: 107.0 mph at 16°Single: 79.9 mph at 14°Single: 97.3 mph at 4°Out: 69.9 mph at 3°Single: 48.7 mph at -48°Single: 104.8 mph at -4°Out: 104.5 mph at -19°Out: 76.4 mph at -12°Single: 105.6 mph at -10°Out: 67.6 mph at -26°Out: 113.0 mph at -3°Double: 114.3 mph at 20°Out: 107.2 mph at -23°Out: 112.8 mph at 1°Out: 100.9 mph at -6°Out: 85.2 mph at -33°Single: 109.3 mph at -4°Single: 109.4 mph at 0°Out: 62.5 mph at -32°Out: 104.7 mph at 40°Double: 87.0 mph at -10°Double: 109.4 mph at 17°Out: 94.0 mph at 19°
63% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.3%63.3%+1.0
2+ total bases42.1%40.4%+1.7
Home run18.9%17.0%+1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+1.8
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+1.9
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

James Wood against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%94.6+7″ / +20″.366.34614.2%17.1%31About league average vs these
Cutter23%90.1-3″ / +15″.393.37313.5%16.0%16About league average vs these
Changeup23%87.4+14″ / +9″.316.29726.9%26.7%22About league average vs these
Curveball10%78.7-7″ / -13″.331.31223.8%27.7%11About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
James Wood · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.273.273.273.245.20736.4%0.0%26.1%95.2110.60.0%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G1436.241.389.276.321.34230.6%19.4%20.7%94.9114.35.6%66.7%27.8%
Last 30 G2882.219.366.297.312.37823.2%19.5%20.0%96.2115.16.4%57.4%27.7%
90 days47143.257.420.495.400.42822.4%22.4%21.3%95.8115.111.4%60.8%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 79 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 23%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.100.100.100.090.14260.0%0.0%46.7%102.2111.00.0%75.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1325.208.240.250.222.23832.0%4.0%25.6%97.1112.80.0%62.5%18.8%
Last 30 G2349.234.265.362.274.26432.7%4.1%28.6%94.4112.86.5%51.6%22.6%
90 days3581.280.333.493.357.31533.3%7.4%29.5%94.3113.610.4%52.1%27.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 48 balls in play
Ground 69%Line drive 17%Fly ball 10%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.190.190.190.171.17647.6%0.0%34.2%97.7111.00.0%63.6%27.3%
Last 15 G1561.226.328.264.280.29931.1%13.1%22.7%95.9114.32.9%64.7%23.5%
Last 30 G30131.225.328.324.298.33426.7%13.7%23.4%95.5115.16.4%55.1%25.6%
90 days49224.266.388.495.384.38726.3%17.0%24.6%95.2115.111.0%57.5%31.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 127 balls in play
Ground 61%Line drive 21%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 5%
James Wood · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating98Elite
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.390 / .397results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSinker93.887.8-14.123Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.096.9-12.165Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.4103.56.603Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.782.9-18.056Out
Sep 21LHPFastball95.3111.0-6.363Single
Sep 20LHPSinker92.2103.917.563Out
Sep 20LHPSinker93.5105.9-4.369Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball81.399.643.103Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper84.0110.610.906Single
Sep 19RHPSlider85.083.49.387Single
Sep 19RHPChangeup89.489.5-25.056Out
Sep 18LHPFastball90.287.912.701Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23400002
Sep 22411002
Sep 21411003
Sep 20400002
Sep 19522001
Sep 18412010
Sep 16400000
Sep 15100001
Sep 13522011
Sep 12511013

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.0%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.6%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.1%
James Wood bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
James Wood with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.1%41.0%
Whiff%21.7%21.3%
Contact%78.3%78.7%
Chase%30.6%39.6%
wOBA.259.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.7%19.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.376
K%26.1%
BB%15.3%
Whiff%9.0%
Barrel%7.0%
Hard-hit%32.2%
Avg EV94.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

139 PA
wOBA.396
xwOBA vs this mix.413against pitches like his
RV/1001.18
Hard-hit%32.9%
K%22.2%
BB%16.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.1%17%≤34 strikeouts: 14.3%14%45 strikeouts: 16.4%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.2%13%78 strikeouts: 9.6%10%89+ strikeouts: 13.5%14%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.James Wood: every projection we've made →