MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · WSH · batting 11Jorbit Vivas
Bats leftTalent grade DContactCold
.296wOBA vs RHP.292xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.7projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 95.1 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +19.2″ rise. Jorbit Vivas: wOBA .337 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 50%Changeup: 26% usage, 86.6 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Jorbit Vivas: wOBA .300 vs league .312 (about even).Changeup 26%Cutter: 12% usage, 90.7 mph, -2.3″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Jorbit Vivas: wOBA .350 vs league .362 (about even).Cutter 12%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.2 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -14.9″ rise. Jorbit Vivas: wOBA .276 vs league .288 (about even).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jorbit Vivas's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jorbit Vivas's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 53.3 mph at -34°Out: 100.6 mph at 14°Out: 87.7 mph at -25°Out: 75.0 mph at 35°Out: 91.2 mph at 30°Out: 71.1 mph at 67°Out: 99.8 mph at 15°Out: 85.1 mph at 49°Out: 90.7 mph at -8°Out: 90.9 mph at 48°Single: 84.8 mph at 18°Out: 81.3 mph at 41°Single: 92.0 mph at 17°Single: 78.8 mph at 16°Single: 102.0 mph at -7°Out: 74.7 mph at -19°Out: 93.3 mph at -43°Out: 95.7 mph at -19°Out: 92.8 mph at 21°Out: 82.8 mph at -34°Single: 63.0 mph at 23°Single: 78.0 mph at 11°Double: 87.3 mph at 29°Out: 73.4 mph at -35°Double: 84.2 mph at 28°Out: 91.8 mph at 28°Double: 105.5 mph at 15°Out: 104.7 mph at -8°Single: 91.6 mph at 13°Out: 84.5 mph at 45°Out: 100.2 mph at -24°Out: 52.1 mph at -15°Out: 62.8 mph at -12°Out: 74.6 mph at 2°Double: 80.6 mph at 9°Out: 73.7 mph at 5°Out: 81.5 mph at 78°Out: 85.1 mph at 22°Double: 100.8 mph at 24°Single: 101.2 mph at 15°
23% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.9%52.3%-0.4
2+ total bases26.2%26.8%-0.6
Home run3.8%4.7%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jorbit Vivas hits
Where they meet

.315 xwOBA for Jorbit Vivas in the spots Jonah Tong throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .316 (-1 points). His best spot against righties is down-left, and Jonah Tong puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jonah Tong · where he throws to left-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing2%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing11%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing6%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing21%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%16% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing16%
All · 176 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%30% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters30%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 73 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Cutter · 44 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16%30% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 43 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%19% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Curveball · 16 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jorbit Vivas · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .309 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 41 pitches seen.284xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .173 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 31 pitches seen.246xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .397 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.308xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .316 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 32 pitches seen.328xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .318 on 15 PA) · league .386 · 41 pitches seen.348xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .206 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 34 pitches seen.254xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .450 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.373xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .287 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 25 pitches seen.313xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .184 on 7 PA) · league .292 · 20 pitches seen.252xwOBA .407 shrunk (raw .440 on 11 PA) · league .377 · 94 pitches seen.407xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .235 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 39 pitches seen.260xwOBA .232 shrunk (raw .216 on 23 PA) · league .263 · 90 pitches seen.232xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .345 on 17 PA) · league .274 · 114 pitches seen.316
vs RHP · 601 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 22%13%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 20%11%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 19%9%Whiff 8% of 26 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 0% of 33 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 13% of 24 swings · league 11%13%Whiff 17% of 18 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 0% of 20 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 28%8%Whiff 29% of 14 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 37% of 46 swings · league 32%37%Whiff 50% of 26 swings · league 49%50%
vs RHP · 601 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 39% of 41 pitches · league 62%39%Swings at 61% of 31 pitches · league 72%61%Swings at 58% of 19 pitches · league 66%58%Swings at 81% of 32 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 81% of 41 pitches · league 76%81%Swings at 71% of 34 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 86% of 21 pitches · league 65%86%Swings at 80% of 25 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 70% of 20 pitches · league 60%70%Swings at 14% of 94 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 36% of 39 pitches · league 34%36%Swings at 51% of 90 pitches · league 40%51%Swings at 23% of 114 pitches · league 32%23%
vs RHP · 601 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jorbit Vivas against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%95.1+5″ / +19″.337.3499.5%17.7%97About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup26%86.6+14″ / +9″.300.31227.2%26.1%44About league average vs these
Cutter12%90.7-2″ / +14″.350.3629.1%16.6%72About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball10%78.2-6″ / -15″.276.28824.1%28.7%12About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jorbit Vivas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.231.286.231.243.30914.3%7.1%8.7%90.0102.00.0%27.3%45.5%
Last 15 G1535.219.286.281.260.25225.7%8.6%22.4%89.9105.50.0%30.4%47.8%
Last 30 G3082.225.321.310.293.28815.9%12.2%16.7%85.5108.73.4%20.3%39.0%
90 days57162.222.335.289.295.29216.0%14.8%17.1%83.5108.71.8%18.0%37.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 111 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 24%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.200.200.200.180.23420.0%0.0%33.3%73.787.70.0%0.0%25.0%
Last 15 G715.231.333.308.357.22320.0%13.3%29.7%73.687.70.0%0.0%30.0%
Last 30 G1120.235.350.294.348.28415.0%15.0%24.0%75.495.70.0%7.1%28.6%
90 days1529.154.241.192.248.23717.2%10.3%23.7%76.6103.50.0%10.0%20.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 75%Line drive 15%Fly ball 10%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.222.263.222.226.29015.8%5.3%18.4%85.6102.00.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1550.222.300.289.289.24324.0%10.0%25.3%84.9105.50.0%21.2%42.4%
Last 30 G30102.227.327.307.303.28815.7%12.7%18.7%83.6108.72.7%17.8%37.0%
90 days58191.211.321.273.288.28416.2%14.1%18.3%82.4108.71.5%16.8%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 23%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
Jorbit Vivas · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating26Below average
Last 100 pitches39trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.287 / .292results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker95.953.3-34.109Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup83.6100.614.811Out
Sep 25LHPSinker92.987.7-25.063Force out
Sep 25LHPFastball92.875.035.134Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.191.230.061Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.171.167.003Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball86.599.815.716Out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.285.149.008Out
Sep 21RHPSinker94.990.7-8.162Out
Sep 21RHPFastball91.790.948.000Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup86.284.818.855Single
Sep 19RHPFastball94.381.341.018Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 22400000
Sep 21400011
Sep 20100001
Sep 19644001
Sep 18400020
Sep 16300001
Sep 15411002
Sep 13111000
Sep 12412003

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.3%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.4%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%18.7%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.7%
Jorbit Vivas bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jorbit Vivas with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.2%41.3%
Whiff%19.6%21.6%
Contact%80.4%78.4%
Chase%33.8%39.4%
wOBA.234.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.6%19.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDContact type
wOBA.290
K%17.4%
BB%11.9%
Whiff%9.0%
Barrel%2.2%
Hard-hit%15.3%
Avg EV83.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

162 PA
wOBA.296
xwOBA vs this mix.292against pitches like his
RV/100-0.73
Hard-hit%13.6%
K%16.8%
BB%13.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH6 days' rest
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.3%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.8%13%78 strikeouts: 9.2%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.5%13%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 11 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jorbit Vivas: every projection we've made →