MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · WSH · batting 6José Tena
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.311wOBA vs RHP.288xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.7projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 95.1 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +19.2″ rise. José Tena: wOBA .334 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 50%Changeup: 26% usage, 86.6 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. José Tena: wOBA .297 vs league .312 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 26%Cutter: 12% usage, 90.7 mph, -2.3″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. José Tena: wOBA .348 vs league .362 (about even).Cutter 12%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.2 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -14.9″ rise. José Tena: wOBA .272 vs league .288 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is José Tena's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

José Tena's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 97.3 mph at 20°Out: 99.3 mph at 4°Out: 81.2 mph at -30°Out: 74.1 mph at -64°Out: 77.1 mph at -1°Out: 100.5 mph at 52°Out: 87.4 mph at 43°Single: 84.1 mph at 19°Out: 81.4 mph at 49°Out: 63.1 mph at -23°Out: 91.1 mph at 28°Out: 55.7 mph at -57°Out: 81.5 mph at 53°Out: 56.7 mph at -76°Double: 91.3 mph at 42°Out: 80.4 mph at 33°Out: 92.6 mph at 66°Out: 83.2 mph at -61°Out: 102.2 mph at 23°Single: 69.6 mph at -12°Out: 108.9 mph at -11°Out: 106.2 mph at -4°Home run: 105.3 mph at 24°Single: 77.8 mph at 25°Home run: 101.8 mph at 26°Out: 66.4 mph at -42°Out: 92.7 mph at 69°Single: 99.3 mph at 12°Out: 105.6 mph at -25°Single: 100.1 mph at 4°Out: 91.9 mph at -25°Out: 60.9 mph at -55°Out: 93.2 mph at 71°Out: 92.1 mph at 35°Out: 101.2 mph at 21°Out: 65.3 mph at -76°Out: 73.2 mph at 76°Out: 80.9 mph at 26°Out: 80.0 mph at 33°Single: 95.8 mph at -14°
33% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit48.7%49.2%-0.4
2+ total bases28.5%28.5%+0.0
Home run8.0%7.6%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where José Tena hits
Where they meet

.312 xwOBA for José Tena in the spots Jonah Tong throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .316 (-5 points). His best spot against righties is down and right, outside, and Jonah Tong puts 16% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jonah Tong · where he throws to left-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing2%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing11%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing6%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing21%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%16% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing16%
All · 176 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%30% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters30%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 73 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Cutter · 44 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters16%30% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 43 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters13%19% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Curveball · 16 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

José Tena · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .249 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.267xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .234 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 22 pitches seen.280xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 5 pitches seen.243xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .248 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.304xwOBA .416 shrunk (raw .442 on 14 PA) · league .386 · 38 pitches seen.416xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .189 on 8 PA) · league .321 · 19 pitches seen.268xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .254 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 22 pitches seen.290xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .149 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 26 pitches seen.277xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .323 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 22 pitches seen.301xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .358 on 6 PA) · league .377 · 78 pitches seen.371xwOBA .206 shrunk (raw .002 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 17 pitches seen.206xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .257 on 27 PA) · league .263 · 93 pitches seen.259xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .377 on 22 PA) · league .274 · 90 pitches seen.341
vs RHP · 493 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 22%18%Whiff 59% of 17 swings · league 20%59%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 19%60%Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 16% of 32 swings · league 9%16%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 13%19%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 17%6%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 28%40%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 39% of 28 swings · league 32%39%Whiff 51% of 39 swings · league 49%51%
vs RHP · 493 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 39% of 28 pitches · league 62%39%Swings at 77% of 22 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 100% of 5 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 64% of 33 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 84% of 38 pitches · league 76%84%Swings at 74% of 19 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 50% of 22 pitches · league 65%50%Swings at 62% of 26 pitches · league 68%62%Swings at 82% of 22 pitches · league 60%82%Swings at 6% of 78 pitches · league 24%6%Swings at 41% of 17 pitches · league 34%41%Swings at 30% of 93 pitches · league 40%30%Swings at 43% of 90 pitches · league 32%43%
vs RHP · 493 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

José Tena against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%95.1+5″ / +19″.334.34919.8%17.7%118About league average vs these
Changeup26%86.6+14″ / +9″.297.31228.7%26.1%75About league average vs these
Cutter12%90.7-2″ / +14″.348.36218.0%16.6%91About league average vs these
Curveball10%78.2-6″ / -15″.272.28836.1%28.7%29About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
José Tena · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.111.200.222.195.19340.0%10.0%33.3%85.899.30.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1536.129.222.194.197.19533.3%11.1%30.3%84.8108.95.0%25.0%20.0%
Last 30 G3069.158.290.298.271.26534.8%14.5%32.8%87.9108.98.8%35.3%26.5%
90 days50120.216.325.363.310.28428.3%12.5%29.0%88.6108.95.8%39.1%26.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 16%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G11.000.000.000.000.0640.0%0.0%0.0%63.163.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G22.000.000.000.000.03250.0%0.0%33.3%63.163.10.0%0.0%0.0%
90 days56.400.500.600.475.45333.3%16.7%22.2%91.2105.533.3%66.7%66.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 3 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 67%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.111.200.222.195.19340.0%10.0%33.3%85.899.30.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1537.125.216.188.192.19232.4%10.8%29.9%83.7108.94.8%23.8%19.0%
Last 30 G3071.153.282.288.263.25835.2%14.1%32.8%87.2108.98.6%34.3%25.7%
90 days51126.224.333.374.317.29228.6%12.7%28.8%88.7108.96.9%40.3%27.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 72 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 18%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 10%
José Tena · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating29Below average
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.319 / .296running 23 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 19RHPSlider86.397.320.340Double
Sep 19RHPFastball96.299.34.457Out
Sep 18RHPCutter93.081.2-30.045Out
Sep 16RHPSplitter87.174.1-64.317Out
Sep 13RHPCurveball80.377.1-1.071Double play
Sep 5RHPFastball94.8100.552.031Sac fly
Sep 5RHPCutter93.087.443.008Out
Sep 4RHPFastball98.884.119.861Single
Aug 31RHPSinker95.381.449.026Out
Aug 31LHPSweeper81.163.1-23.064Out
Aug 29RHPSinker98.791.128.085Out
Aug 29RHPSlider87.155.7-57.205Force out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 19212000
Sep 18100000
Sep 16400003
Sep 13200001
Sep 12100010
Sep 9100001
Sep 5400002
Sep 4111000
Aug 31200000
Aug 30100010

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.3%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.4%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%18.7%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.7%
José Tena bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
José Tena with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.0%41.3%
Whiff%26.3%21.6%
Contact%73.7%78.4%
Chase%39.5%39.4%
wOBA.241.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.0%19.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.316
K%25.6%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%11.9%
Barrel%3.9%
Hard-hit%25.2%
Avg EV88.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

120 PA
wOBA.311
xwOBA vs this mix.288against pitches like his
RV/1000.13
Hard-hit%22.9%
K%27.8%
BB%11.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH6 days' rest
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.3%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.8%13%78 strikeouts: 9.2%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.5%13%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 11 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.José Tena: every projection we've made →