MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 6Marcus Semien
Bats rightTalent grade CContactNormal
.303wOBA vs LHP.294xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · WSHConnelly Early
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
3.8projected K33%K%1.1trips vs this hitter
Marcus Semien's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.0 mph at 34°Out: 97.5 mph at 38°Out: 85.7 mph at 47°Home run: 100.9 mph at 29°Out: 94.9 mph at -15°Out: 96.2 mph at 17°Out: 97.6 mph at -5°Out: 61.3 mph at -7°Out: 100.1 mph at 18°Out: 90.7 mph at 36°Out: 75.9 mph at -5°Out: 95.2 mph at 71°Out: 100.4 mph at 21°Out: 65.5 mph at 6°Out: 90.5 mph at 30°Out: 96.6 mph at 38°Single: 77.3 mph at 34°Out: 94.9 mph at 5°Out: 87.7 mph at 37°Out: 62.8 mph at -5°Single: 71.7 mph at -7°Out: 91.0 mph at 51°Single: 83.8 mph at 19°Out: 83.6 mph at -22°Out: 92.1 mph at 29°Out: 95.9 mph at 28°Out: 93.3 mph at 41°Out: 69.4 mph at -3°Double: 96.4 mph at -6°Out: 89.8 mph at 1°Out: 86.7 mph at -20°Single: 104.0 mph at 1°Out: 85.4 mph at 38°Out: 97.5 mph at 47°Out: 58.6 mph at 79°Out: 89.1 mph at 38°Single: 98.2 mph at 2°Out: 86.6 mph at 55°Single: 91.6 mph at 18°Out: 95.1 mph at 34°
35% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.0%58.5%-0.5
2+ total bases31.5%31.4%+0.1
Home run9.0%8.6%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Marcus Semien · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.182.400.245.3360.0%9.1%19.0%92.4100.910.0%60.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1221.211.286.368.290.2879.5%9.5%21.1%92.2100.95.9%52.9%29.4%
Last 30 G2137.176.243.265.232.26213.5%8.1%22.7%88.7100.93.4%37.9%34.5%
90 days3768.190.294.345.300.28919.1%13.2%23.6%88.8105.34.3%39.1%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 17%Fly ball 39%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.125.300.125.230.25210.0%20.0%15.4%83.1100.10.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1443.211.279.289.278.2782.3%9.3%5.6%86.8105.92.6%31.6%34.2%
Last 30 G2985.274.365.329.340.3174.7%11.8%12.3%87.0105.91.4%30.0%28.6%
90 days55153.232.301.341.305.28113.1%8.5%18.9%86.9105.91.7%30.3%31.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 119 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 16%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.111.238.278.238.2964.8%14.3%17.6%88.6100.95.9%47.1%29.4%
Last 15 G1564.211.281.316.282.2814.7%9.4%10.9%88.5105.93.6%38.2%32.7%
Last 30 G30122.243.328.308.307.3017.4%10.7%16.0%87.5105.92.0%32.3%30.3%
90 days57221.219.299.342.304.28314.9%10.0%20.4%87.4105.92.4%32.7%31.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 165 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 16%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 12%
Marcus Semien · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating35Below average
Last 100 pitches21trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.306 / .302results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker92.780.034.049Out
Sep 23LHPFastball88.597.538.265Out
Sep 23LHPFastball90.085.747.003Out
Sep 23LHPFastball94.4100.9291.134Home run
Sep 23LHPFastball91.594.9-15.163Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.596.217.504Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.797.6-5.304Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter87.661.3-7.073Force out
Sep 22RHPSlider87.9100.118.442Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper83.090.736.037Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup87.275.9-5.114Out
Sep 20LHPSinker94.595.271.000Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300011
Sep 23414100
Sep 22500000
Sep 20400000
Sep 19511020
Sep 18411000
Sep 16411000
Sep 15512010
Sep 14411000
Sep 12511000

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper18%36%75.0%37.5%20.5%
Fastball20%23%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sinker23%18%0.0%25.0%17.7%
Changeup20%14%–0.0%18.3%
Slider16%9%50.0%50.0%21.6%
Marcus Semien bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Marcus Semien with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.5%41.6%
Whiff%21.3%21.7%
Contact%78.7%78.3%
Chase%38.5%40.0%
wOBA.231.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.304
K%15.6%
BB%9.7%
Whiff%9.7%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV87.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

69 PA
wOBA.303
xwOBA vs this mix.294against pitches like his
RV/100-0.13
Hard-hit%26.2%
K%19.5%
BB%9.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 46.8%47%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 14.8%15%56 strikeouts: 9.5%10%67 strikeouts: 5.3%5%78 strikeouts: 2.5%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.7%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.3%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Velo88.8
BTB Stuff94
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker23%10192.90.0%
Changeup20%8484.68.3%
Fastball20%10194.90.0%
Sweeper18%9784.027.3%
Slider16%8487.720.0%
Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Marcus Semien: every projection we've made →