MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 3Brandon Lowe
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerHot
.371wOBA vs RHP.340xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brandon Lowe's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 68.7 mph at 13°Single: 96.3 mph at 10°Home run: 108.4 mph at 29°Out: 87.0 mph at -12°Out: 64.0 mph at 1°Out: 102.8 mph at 41°Out: 105.3 mph at 28°Out: 102.9 mph at -5°Out: 81.1 mph at 74°Single: 92.9 mph at -29°Out: 53.1 mph at -68°Out: 101.5 mph at -4°Single: 110.9 mph at 20°Home run: 103.7 mph at 30°Home run: 105.6 mph at 33°Out: 77.5 mph at -36°Out: 101.9 mph at -9°Double: 89.8 mph at 14°Home run: 107.4 mph at 32°Single: 98.6 mph at 5°Out: 88.3 mph at 64°Out: 94.1 mph at 65°Home run: 100.6 mph at 28°Single: 102.8 mph at 9°Single: 84.0 mph at 10°Out: 79.0 mph at -34°Out: 99.1 mph at 51°Out: 87.2 mph at 79°Out: 76.8 mph at 53°Out: 73.0 mph at -23°Single: 107.1 mph at 3°Single: 69.3 mph at -53°Out: 91.6 mph at 19°Single: 106.2 mph at 14°Out: 79.7 mph at 47°Single: 72.5 mph at 33°Single: 104.8 mph at 18°Single: 88.3 mph at 14°Out: 86.9 mph at -26°Out: 104.7 mph at -1°
48% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.8%63.1%+0.7
2+ total bases38.7%38.1%+0.6
Home run16.3%15.8%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brandon Lowe · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.250.333.625.400.39311.1%11.1%26.1%87.2103.714.3%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1539.364.462.667.478.42920.5%15.4%31.4%91.4107.412.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2979.318.430.576.435.37121.5%16.5%31.0%90.8107.46.1%40.8%38.8%
90 days64199.290.367.511.382.35127.6%11.1%31.6%92.8111.010.7%47.1%38.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 121 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 25%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.364.417.636.450.60333.3%8.3%41.7%95.5110.942.9%71.4%57.1%
Last 15 G1424.318.375.591.413.41633.3%4.2%39.5%90.4110.928.6%57.1%35.7%
Last 30 G2546.262.326.524.383.33239.1%6.5%37.8%89.4110.925.0%50.0%29.2%
90 days55113.260.301.413.318.25741.6%5.3%39.9%88.8110.915.3%42.4%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 59 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 15%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.316.381.632.429.51323.8%9.5%34.0%91.3110.928.6%57.1%42.9%
Last 15 G1563.345.429.636.453.42425.4%11.1%34.1%91.0110.917.9%46.2%38.5%
Last 30 G30125.296.392.556.415.35628.0%12.8%33.3%90.3110.912.3%43.8%35.6%
90 days72312.279.343.475.358.31732.7%9.0%34.5%91.5111.012.2%45.6%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 180 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 22%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 11%
Brandon Lowe · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating57Average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.359 / .325running 34 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run5/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball96.468.713.295Single
Sep 23LHPCurveball78.896.310.648Single
Sep 23LHPFastball93.8108.4292.000Home run
Sep 23RHPChangeup88.687.0-12.140Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.464.01.075Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.3102.841.408Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.7105.3281.789Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.8102.9-5.331Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup82.081.174.000Out
Sep 20LHPSinker92.292.9-29.059Single
Sep 20LHPSlider87.053.1-68.204Out
Sep 19LHPSinker92.9101.5-4.346Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411012
Sep 23425101
Sep 22400000
Sep 20511011
Sep 19425101
Sep 18514102
Sep 17412011
Sep 16425111
Sep 15514102
Sep 13211001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.352
K%31.8%
BB%8.8%
Whiff%16.7%
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%26.2%
Avg EV91.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

195 PA
wOBA.371
xwOBA vs this mix.340against pitches like his
RV/1000.76
Hard-hit%27.7%
K%27.8%
BB%9.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brandon Lowe: every projection we've made →