MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · DET · batting 10Javier Báez
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.238wOBA vs RHP.212xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · PITKirby Yates
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Stable
2.4projected K23%K%0.9trips vs this hitter
Kirby Yates's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 93.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.9″ rise. Javier Báez: wOBA .329 vs league .352 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 58%Splitter: 40% usage, 86.0 mph, +12.7″ arm side, -0.7″ rise. Javier Báez: wOBA .259 vs league .282 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 40%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Javier Báez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Javier Báez's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 88.0 mph at 29°Out: 89.3 mph at 4°Out: 78.5 mph at -14°Home run: 107.8 mph at 29°Single: 98.3 mph at 13°Out: 71.8 mph at -5°Out: 88.2 mph at 31°Out: 66.5 mph at 49°Out: 55.5 mph at -16°Out: 85.4 mph at 32°Out: 93.5 mph at -11°Out: 99.0 mph at 41°Out: 39.5 mph at -73°Double: 59.8 mph at 40°Out: 103.8 mph at -10°Out: 95.1 mph at 32°Out: 107.8 mph at -8°Out: 76.4 mph at 0°Out: 73.0 mph at 65°Out: 83.3 mph at -29°Out: 73.5 mph at -31°Double: 101.4 mph at 15°Out: 100.5 mph at 25°Triple: 103.1 mph at 18°Out: 69.5 mph at -46°Out: 75.1 mph at 41°Single: 103.7 mph at -20°Out: 91.3 mph at -16°Double: 99.3 mph at 15°Out: 75.4 mph at -11°Out: 64.5 mph at -17°Double: 91.9 mph at 13°Out: 71.9 mph at -49°Out: 60.1 mph at 14°Out: 102.9 mph at 1°Out: 107.8 mph at -22°Out: 62.6 mph at -10°Out: 97.8 mph at -27°Out: 97.1 mph at 5°Out: 73.6 mph at -11°
38% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.5%56.5%-1.0
2+ total bases31.1%31.5%-0.4
Home run8.2%7.4%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Javier Báez hits
Where they meet

.270 xwOBA for Javier Báez in the spots Kirby Yates throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .303 (-33 points). His best spot against righties is up and right, outside, and Kirby Yates puts 13% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Kirby Yates · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 60% per swing3%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing11%13% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing13%13% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing13%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing19%
All · 208 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%19% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters19%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 138 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters33% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters33%33% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters33%
Splitter · 66 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Javier Báez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .224 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 10 pitches seen.259xwOBA .337 shrunk (raw .701 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 12 pitches seen.337xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .129 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 11 pitches seen.230xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .250 on 4 PA) · league .342 · 12 pitches seen.319xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .388 on 5 PA) · league .386 · 16 pitches seen.387xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .000 on 3 PA) · league .321 · 12 pitches seen.257xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .239 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.291xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .098 on 3 PA) · league .351 · 15 pitches seen.300xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .007 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 15 pitches seen.208xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .225 on 5 PA) · league .377 · 26 pitches seen.332xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 18 pitches seen.307xwOBA .205 shrunk (raw .119 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 24 pitches seen.205xwOBA .201 shrunk (raw .164 on 24 PA) · league .274 · 94 pitches seen.201
vs RHP · 275 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 22%14%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 20%17%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 19%29%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 11%50%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 13%38%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 28%23%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 24%60%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 32%8%Whiff 50% of 42 swings · league 49%50%
vs RHP · 275 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 62%70%Swings at 50% of 12 pitches · league 72%50%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 66%64%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 70%58%Swings at 75% of 16 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 50% of 12 pitches · league 70%50%Swings at 40% of 10 pitches · league 65%40%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 68%53%Swings at 40% of 15 pitches · league 60%40%Swings at 50% of 26 pitches · league 24%50%Swings at 28% of 18 pitches · league 34%28%Swings at 50% of 24 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 45% of 94 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 275 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Javier Báez against each of Kirby Yates's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%93.0+14″ / +14″.329.35220.1%13.9%377About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter40%86.0+13″ / -1″.259.28240.6%32.6%48About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Javier Báez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.000.100.000.070.10350.0%10.0%45.5%76.288.20.0%0.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1426.120.154.200.192.12030.8%3.8%37.3%77.9103.70.0%23.5%23.5%
Last 30 G2969.154.203.200.199.17126.1%4.3%31.8%82.2107.80.0%31.9%14.9%
90 days3072.176.222.221.216.18425.0%4.2%31.1%82.9107.80.0%32.0%18.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 10%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.400.4001.000.580.66720.0%0.0%28.6%95.8107.825.0%50.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1018.235.278.588.358.39827.8%5.6%31.4%96.2107.816.7%58.3%50.0%
Last 30 G2037.278.297.472.330.33616.2%2.7%29.4%90.3107.86.7%46.7%30.0%
90 days2138.297.316.514.354.33615.8%2.6%28.6%89.9107.86.5%45.2%32.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 23%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.143.200.357.240.29140.0%6.7%38.9%86.0107.812.5%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1544.167.205.357.260.23429.5%4.5%35.1%85.4107.86.9%37.9%34.5%
Last 30 G30106.198.236.297.245.22822.6%3.8%31.0%85.4107.82.6%37.7%20.8%
90 days31110.219.255.324.264.23721.8%3.6%30.2%85.6107.82.5%37.0%23.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 81 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 15%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 6%
Javier Báez · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating3Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches2steady
wOBA / xwOBA.259 / .243running 16 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 22LHPSlider85.788.029.081Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.789.34.409Double play
Sep 22RHPSinker97.478.5-14.067Out
Sep 21LHPChangeup83.3107.8291.949Home run
Sep 18LHPFastball97.498.313.897Single
Sep 11RHPSweeper85.271.8-5.067Double play
Sep 11RHPSinker93.488.231.039Out
Sep 11RHPFastball93.166.549.154Out
Sep 5RHPSweeper82.055.5-16.068Fielder's choice
Sep 5RHPSweeper84.985.432.010Out
Sep 4LHPSweeper79.493.5-11.168Out
Sep 4RHPSweeper85.599.041.137Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 22400001
Sep 21314111
Sep 18211001
Sep 17300003
Sep 11300000
Sep 5400002
Sep 4300000
Sep 2112000
Sep 1400001
Aug 30300000

Two strikes

Kirby Yates PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Kirby Yates with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball67%67%22.4%19.6%18.3%
Splitter31%31%26.3%11.6%21.3%
Sweeper2%2%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Javier Báez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Javier Báez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.5%43.3%
Whiff%30.1%23.5%
Contact%69.9%76.5%
Chase%53.8%39.4%
wOBA.213.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.1%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.291
K%23.1%
BB%3.7%
Whiff%12.9%
Barrel%3.0%
Hard-hit%27.6%
Avg EV87.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

72 PA
wOBA.238
xwOBA vs this mix.212against pitches like his
RV/100-1.90
Hard-hit%23.4%
K%24.3%
BB%4.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kirby YatesRHP · PIT vs DET3 days' rest · short rest
2.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 9.9 batters over 2.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 77.1%77%≤34 strikeouts: 12.8%13%45 strikeouts: 6.3%6%56 strikeouts: 2.5%3%67 strikeouts: 0.9%1%78 strikeouts: 0.3%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.2%
BB%10.1%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo88.7
BTB Stuff85
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball66%8990.89.1%
Splitter32%7884.312.3%
Sweeper2%8375.00.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kirby Yates PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Javier Báez: every projection we've made →