← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 4Riley Greene
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · PITTBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Riley Greene's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 82.6 mph at 51°Out: 93.0 mph at 26°Out: 75.8 mph at -16°Out: 65.6 mph at 80°Out: 49.7 mph at -18°Out: 86.1 mph at 54°Double: 109.2 mph at 20°Out: 61.2 mph at 8°Single: 80.5 mph at 27°Single: 89.8 mph at 6°Out: 71.1 mph at 10°Out: 80.5 mph at 6°Home run: 108.9 mph at 33°Single: 79.3 mph at 21°Out: 87.5 mph at 6°Out: 89.6 mph at 60°Out: 73.0 mph at 66°Single: 105.8 mph at 6°Out: 55.8 mph at 3°Single: 101.5 mph at 28°Out: 102.8 mph at 68°Single: 102.4 mph at 11°Out: 69.1 mph at -32°Out: 98.1 mph at 16°Single: 92.4 mph at 11°Out: 61.6 mph at -6°Single: 82.6 mph at 23°Home run: 101.7 mph at 27°Single: 94.9 mph at 17°Out: 93.1 mph at 46°Single: 105.3 mph at -3°Out: 100.4 mph at 49°Triple: 111.4 mph at 28°Double: 93.6 mph at 12°Single: 111.5 mph at 9°Out: 83.3 mph at 36°Out: 83.2 mph at 46°Out: 49.7 mph at 9°Out: 95.3 mph at 54°Single: 81.2 mph at 19°
33% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.3%63.5%-0.2
2+ total bases43.9%43.9%+0.0
Home run21.9%21.6%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Riley Greene · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.300.462.400.396.36123.1%23.1%28.0%85.7109.214.3%14.3%42.9%
Last 15 G1546.341.413.463.389.33723.9%10.9%25.8%87.4111.510.0%33.3%46.7%
Last 30 G3093.259.355.407.341.32731.2%10.8%31.8%84.9111.511.5%30.8%50.0%
90 days53161.285.373.547.398.40727.3%11.8%30.8%88.0111.519.8%43.8%47.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 96 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 26%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.143.333.571.378.42311.1%11.1%26.7%75.7108.916.7%16.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1318.333.444.867.528.55611.1%11.1%21.9%83.9111.423.1%30.8%38.5%
Last 30 G2338.333.421.788.520.49513.2%10.5%20.0%86.0111.417.9%28.6%42.9%
90 days4675.250.320.529.373.40121.3%8.0%21.5%87.2111.413.5%34.6%42.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 25%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.235.409.471.389.38618.2%18.2%27.5%81.1109.215.4%15.4%38.5%
Last 15 G1564.339.422.571.428.39820.3%10.9%24.8%86.3111.514.0%32.6%44.2%
Last 30 G30131.281.374.518.393.37726.0%10.7%28.3%85.3111.513.8%30.0%47.5%
90 days55236.273.356.541.390.40525.4%10.6%27.7%87.7111.517.6%40.5%45.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 26%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 8%
Riley Greene · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches89trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.389 / .412running 23 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSlider91.982.651.038Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup77.593.026.224Out
Sep 23LHPSinker89.275.8-16.047Out
Sep 21LHPFastball92.265.680.000Out
Sep 21LHPChangeup82.449.7-18.088Out
Sep 20RHPFastball94.286.154.018Out
Sep 20RHPFastball92.4109.2201.347Double
Sep 20LHPFastball92.461.28.117Out
Sep 19RHPFastball93.180.527.227Single
Sep 19RHPFastball94.489.86.444Single
Sep 19RHPCurveball75.771.110.249Out
Sep 18RHPCutter92.180.56.272Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23500020
Sep 21400011
Sep 20412001
Sep 19422000
Sep 18514112
Sep 17411002
Sep 16411000
Sep 15411011
Sep 14522001
Sep 13425101

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Riley Greene: every projection we've made →