MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 6Ronny Simon
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.310wOBA vs RHP.297xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ronny Simon's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 103.8 mph at 18°Out: 33.3 mph at 42°Out: 72.3 mph at -15°Out: 81.9 mph at 53°Out: 104.2 mph at -5°Out: 73.5 mph at 11°Out: 99.9 mph at 8°Out: 76.9 mph at 42°Out: 36.1 mph at 55°Home run: 104.7 mph at 25°Out: 98.8 mph at -27°Double: 89.5 mph at 10°Out: 90.2 mph at 67°Out: 92.6 mph at 49°Out: 109.4 mph at 13°Single: 31.8 mph at -9°Double: 96.1 mph at 6°Single: 90.7 mph at 13°Out: 91.8 mph at -30°Single: 86.8 mph at 7°Out: 94.3 mph at -22°Out: 94.4 mph at -1°Out: 89.9 mph at -21°Single: 97.8 mph at 12°Out: 33.2 mph at 20°Out: 99.3 mph at 27°Out: 64.4 mph at -43°Out: 65.8 mph at 66°Single: 63.2 mph at -64°Single: 106.1 mph at 1°Single: 96.7 mph at -22°Single: 106.4 mph at 11°Out: 104.8 mph at -3°Out: 94.7 mph at 29°Out: 99.1 mph at -16°Single: 41.4 mph at 18°Out: 75.4 mph at 71°Double: 72.2 mph at 2°Out: 21.6 mph at 2°Out: 67.7 mph at 67°
35% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.2%62.0%+0.3
2+ total bases33.5%33.4%+0.1
Home run8.4%8.4%-0.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ronny Simon · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.182.200.177.23327.3%9.1%21.7%91.1104.20.0%42.9%42.9%
Last 15 G1333.258.303.355.292.23018.2%6.1%18.0%82.7109.40.0%28.0%24.0%
Last 30 G1640.270.325.351.304.27815.0%7.5%17.9%83.5109.40.0%25.8%32.3%
90 days1640.270.325.351.304.27815.0%7.5%17.9%83.5109.40.0%25.8%32.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 19%Fly ball 10%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.250.250.625.362.35425.0%0.0%26.3%71.2104.716.7%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1020.333.368.500.389.44320.0%5.0%12.5%79.0106.413.3%46.7%46.7%
Last 30 G1223.286.318.429.336.39417.4%4.3%10.7%80.2106.411.1%38.9%38.9%
90 days1223.286.318.429.336.39417.4%4.3%10.7%80.2106.411.1%38.9%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 18 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 28%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.167.211.389.255.28426.3%5.3%23.8%81.9104.77.7%38.5%38.5%
Last 15 G1553.286.327.408.328.30818.9%5.7%15.6%81.3109.45.0%35.0%32.5%
Last 30 G1863.276.323.379.315.31915.9%6.3%14.9%82.3109.44.1%30.6%34.7%
90 days1863.276.323.379.315.31915.9%6.3%14.9%82.3109.44.1%30.6%34.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 22%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 14%
Ronny Simon · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating47Average
Last 100 pitches64trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.310 / .313results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCutter86.0103.818.608Single
Sep 24LHPFastball90.833.342.229Force out
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.672.3-15.064Double play
Sep 23RHPFastball93.981.953.010Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.4104.2-5.388Force out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.773.511.273Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball80.499.98.582Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball78.276.942.067Out
Sep 19LHPFastball92.136.155.128Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup80.5104.7251.739Home run
Sep 18RHPSinker91.798.8-27.116Force out
Sep 18RHPSweeper82.989.510.476Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411011
Sep 23400002
Sep 22300000
Sep 19414101
Sep 18412001
Sep 17411010
Sep 16423001
Sep 15111000
Sep 9100000
Aug 15400002

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.299
K%19.1%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%9.9%
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%25.8%
Avg EV86.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

40 PA
wOBA.310
xwOBA vs this mix.297against pitches like his
RV/100-0.30
Hard-hit%23.0%
K%18.7%
BB%7.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ronny Simon: every projection we've made →