MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 7Spencer Horwitz
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.217wOBA vs RHP.254xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Spencer Horwitz's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 83.3 mph at 62°Out: 81.1 mph at 52°Out: 73.4 mph at -31°Out: 91.8 mph at 28°Out: 91.7 mph at 5°Double: 94.1 mph at 12°Single: 67.8 mph at 23°Out: 70.5 mph at 17°Out: 91.5 mph at 8°Single: 91.4 mph at 10°Single: 78.1 mph at 21°Out: 85.4 mph at 52°Out: 86.8 mph at 27°Single: 99.1 mph at 11°Out: 82.5 mph at -23°Out: 89.9 mph at -5°Single: 101.2 mph at 10°Out: 51.4 mph at 8°Out: 73.6 mph at 40°Out: 74.6 mph at 32°Single: 52.7 mph at -71°Out: 98.1 mph at -28°Out: 66.3 mph at -20°Single: 104.4 mph at 7°Out: 93.9 mph at 30°Single: 75.6 mph at 20°Out: 78.4 mph at -7°Out: 95.4 mph at -6°Out: 98.4 mph at 39°Out: 72.1 mph at 9°Out: 100.6 mph at 19°Out: 84.9 mph at 36°Out: 77.5 mph at 45°Out: 92.5 mph at 25°Single: 99.2 mph at -1°Out: 84.0 mph at 44°Single: 89.8 mph at -3°Out: 74.8 mph at -22°Out: 97.4 mph at -9°Single: 75.1 mph at 10°
23% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.9%57.5%+0.4
2+ total bases28.7%28.5%+0.2
Home run5.6%5.5%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Spencer Horwitz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.300.333.400.312.38725.0%8.3%16.0%84.094.10.0%0.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1542.189.262.216.225.27019.0%9.5%20.3%85.5104.40.0%23.3%46.7%
Last 30 G3087.173.218.185.189.23520.7%5.7%16.3%86.2104.40.0%25.0%37.5%
90 days37109.172.239.192.205.24620.2%7.3%16.1%86.5104.40.0%23.1%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 78 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 21%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.333.500.333.400.4020.0%25.0%0.0%80.883.30.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G911.444.545.444.455.3980.0%18.2%12.5%81.1101.20.0%22.2%33.3%
Last 30 G1932.259.375.259.306.32618.8%12.5%21.3%85.6104.30.0%23.8%42.9%
90 days2236.226.333.226.272.29919.4%11.1%23.2%84.8104.30.0%20.8%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 29%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.308.375.385.334.39118.8%12.5%13.3%83.294.10.0%0.0%63.6%
Last 15 G1553.239.321.261.273.29715.1%11.3%18.9%84.5104.40.0%23.1%43.6%
Last 30 G30119.194.261.204.221.26020.2%7.6%17.5%86.0104.40.0%24.7%38.8%
90 days37145.185.262.200.221.25920.0%8.3%17.8%86.1104.40.0%22.5%37.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 102 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 9%
Spencer Horwitz · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating14Poor
Last 100 pitches77trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.224 / .270running 46 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball90.083.362.008Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup80.781.152.041Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.273.4-31.036Out
Sep 24RHPFastball98.091.828.096Sac fly
Sep 22RHPFastball95.691.75.468Out
Sep 22RHPSlider89.494.112.860Double
Sep 20RHPFastball95.167.823.833Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup81.270.517.602Out
Sep 18RHPFastball92.991.58.523Out
Sep 18RHPFastball99.191.410.525Single
Sep 18LHPFastball94.478.121.860Single
Sep 15RHPFastball99.585.452.013Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400000
Sep 22312010
Sep 20411002
Sep 18422010
Sep 16100001
Sep 15200000
Sep 12411011
Sep 10311000
Sep 9411001
Sep 8522000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.290
K%19.6%
BB%9.2%
Whiff%8.4%
Barrel%2.6%
Hard-hit%19.8%
Avg EV86.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

109 PA
wOBA.217
xwOBA vs this mix.254against pitches like his
RV/100-2.12
Hard-hit%17.4%
K%20.4%
BB%8.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Spencer Horwitz: every projection we've made →