MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 8Brandon Lockridge
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.276wOBA vs LHP.268xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.1projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Brandon Lockridge: wOBA .340 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Brandon Lockridge: wOBA .307 vs league .320 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Brandon Lockridge: wOBA .295 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Brandon Lockridge: wOBA .284 vs league .297 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Brandon Lockridge: wOBA .350 vs league .363 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brandon Lockridge's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brandon Lockridge's last 7 balls in playHit (2)Out (5)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 61.4 mph at -1°Single: 91.2 mph at -3°Out: 77.3 mph at 55°Single: 101.2 mph at 6°Out: 49.4 mph at -60°Out: 108.0 mph at -24°Out: 74.3 mph at -16°
29% hit 95+ mph0% in the sweet spot29% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.7%50.3%+0.5
2+ total bases25.7%25.7%+0.0
Home run5.4%5.7%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brandon Lockridge hits
Where they meet

.294 xwOBA for Brandon Lockridge in the spots Quinn Mathews throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .303 (-10 points).Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Quinn Mathews · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing6%14% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing14%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing19%18% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 55% per swing18%
All · 559 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%24% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters24%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%
Fastball · 249 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%10% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters10%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters22%47% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters47%
Changeup · 123 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters8%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Slider · 101 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%26% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters26%16% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16%
Curveball · 82 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Brandon Lockridge · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 1 pitches seen.284xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .385 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .064 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 4 pitches seen.319xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .093 on 1 PA) · league .273 · 1 pitches seen.259xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 2 pitches seen.323xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .302 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .302 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .289 · 6 pitches seen.298xwOBA .220 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 6 pitches seen.220
vs LHP · 30 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 21%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 23%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 9%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 10%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 14%50%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 16%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 75% of 4 swings · league 48%75%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 30 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 63%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 71%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 64%0%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 67%0%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 76%0%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 59%100%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 66%25%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 30%0%Swings at 0% of 3 pitches · league 26%0%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 31%67%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 41%67%
vs LHP · 30 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brandon Lockridge against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.340.35316.8%17.3%30About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.307.32028.8%30.2%19About league average vs these
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.295.30933.3%28.8%12About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.284.29725.8%27.4%11About league average vs these
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.350.36316.3%16.4%32About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brandon Lockridge · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.000.125.000.088.10762.5%12.5%40.0%75.877.30.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G38.000.125.000.088.10762.5%12.5%40.0%75.877.30.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G38.000.125.000.088.10762.5%12.5%40.0%75.877.30.0%0.0%0.0%
90 days38.000.125.000.088.10762.5%12.5%40.0%75.877.30.0%0.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 2 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 0%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 50%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.333.333.333.450.21916.7%0.0%30.0%82.2108.00.0%40.0%0.0%
Last 15 G47.286.286.286.386.18828.6%0.0%38.5%82.2108.00.0%40.0%0.0%
Last 30 G47.286.286.286.386.18828.6%0.0%38.5%82.2108.00.0%40.0%0.0%
90 days47.286.286.286.386.18828.6%0.0%38.5%82.2108.00.0%40.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 100%Line drive 0%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.154.214.154.243.15542.9%7.1%36.0%80.4108.00.0%28.6%0.0%
Last 15 G615.143.200.143.227.14546.7%6.7%39.3%80.4108.00.0%28.6%0.0%
Last 30 G615.143.200.143.227.14546.7%6.7%39.3%80.4108.00.0%28.6%0.0%
90 days615.143.200.143.227.14546.7%6.7%39.3%80.4108.00.0%28.6%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 7 balls in play
Ground 86%Line drive 0%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 14%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.169 / .136running 32 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/6
2+ total bases0/6
Home run0/6

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 7 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Aug 18RHPSlider88.961.4-1.087Fielder's choice
Aug 18RHPOffspeed40.391.2-3.297Single
Aug 16LHPChangeup88.477.355.093Out
Aug 11RHPSweeper80.4101.26.562Single
Aug 11RHPSinker95.449.4-60.263Out
Aug 11RHPSinker94.7108.0-24.107Out
Aug 9LHPChangeup86.874.3-16.064Out
Last 6 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Aug 18211000
Aug 16500013
Aug 12200002
Aug 11311000
Aug 9200001
Aug 1100001

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%22.2%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.4%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%20.9%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.8%
Brandon Lockridge bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brandon Lockridge with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.5%41.4%
Whiff%22.8%22.0%
Contact%77.2%78.0%
Chase%41.6%40.7%
wOBA.222.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.3%23.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.273
K%25.7%
BB%5.9%
Whiff%11.5%
Barrel%1.4%
Hard-hit%22.5%
Avg EV85.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

8 PA
wOBA.276
xwOBA vs this mix.268against pitches like his
RV/100-0.81
Hard-hit%21.2%
K%30.8%
BB%7.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL6 days' rest
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.7%26%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.7%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.8%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.5%8%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brandon Lockridge: every projection we've made →