MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 2Brice Turang
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedHot
.319wOBA vs LHP.313xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.0projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .344 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .309 vs league .311 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .278 vs league .280 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .299 vs league .301 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .341 vs league .343 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brice Turang's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brice Turang's last 40 balls in playHit (23)Out (17)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.1 mph at -3°Single: 76.4 mph at 10°Out: 79.5 mph at -54°Out: 67.6 mph at -10°Double: 85.1 mph at 14°Home run: 108.4 mph at 22°Single: 75.7 mph at 0°Out: 99.3 mph at -6°Out: 75.3 mph at 61°Single: 106.2 mph at 14°Single: 91.7 mph at 20°Out: 82.7 mph at 44°Single: 102.5 mph at 13°Double: 104.0 mph at 11°Out: 99.5 mph at 55°Out: 102.7 mph at -19°Single: 89.7 mph at -5°Out: 58.4 mph at -30°Single: 95.2 mph at 15°Out: 59.9 mph at -49°Single: 94.9 mph at 11°Out: 96.7 mph at 42°Home run: 103.3 mph at 26°Home run: 107.3 mph at 21°Double: 103.7 mph at 27°Single: 38.3 mph at -24°Out: 73.0 mph at -22°Out: 82.1 mph at -23°Out: 85.2 mph at -9°Single: 101.4 mph at 11°Out: 85.5 mph at 30°Single: 85.9 mph at 10°Double: 105.5 mph at 11°Out: 82.4 mph at -5°Double: 98.2 mph at 16°Out: 72.1 mph at -19°Single: 91.2 mph at -8°Double: 94.6 mph at 28°Single: 98.9 mph at 19°Single: 99.4 mph at 14°
45% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot57% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.9%61.9%+0.1
2+ total bases33.1%33.8%-0.7
Home run8.8%10.5%-1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
0.0
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-2.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Brice Turang against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.344.34619.2%19.8%20About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.309.31132.3%29.6%22About league average vs these
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.278.28035.5%34.1%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.299.30130.4%27.4%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.341.34312.6%12.9%35About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brice Turang · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G56.167.167.167.150.21550.0%0.0%33.3%95.0106.20.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1120.375.500.625.508.43825.0%20.0%26.7%86.4107.310.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2352.217.294.304.297.32723.1%7.7%22.1%82.4107.32.9%29.4%32.4%
90 days49104.233.324.300.302.31422.1%10.6%23.9%83.7109.81.5%27.9%38.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 28%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.312.312.562.372.22650.0%0.0%29.4%85.0108.412.5%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1550.359.500.615.506.40422.0%22.0%22.2%89.0108.411.1%40.7%44.4%
Last 30 G2685.304.435.522.433.35929.4%18.8%23.8%90.2108.49.3%44.2%46.5%
90 days67225.286.378.490.400.35124.9%12.9%20.0%89.5109.07.3%43.8%43.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 137 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 32%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.273.273.455.311.22350.0%0.0%30.6%87.8108.49.1%36.4%45.5%
Last 15 G1570.364.500.618.507.41422.9%21.4%23.3%88.3108.410.8%43.2%45.9%
Last 30 G30137.270.382.435.382.34727.0%14.6%23.1%86.8108.46.5%37.7%40.3%
90 days72329.269.361.430.369.33924.0%12.2%21.2%87.6109.85.4%38.5%41.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 205 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 31%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 5%
Brice Turang · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating78Above average
Last 100 pitches10trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.366 / .344running 21 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.9100.1-3.349Double play
Sep 24RHPChangeup89.676.410.333Single
Sep 24LHPSinker94.379.5-54.256Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.767.6-10.062Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.085.114.863Double
Sep 23RHPSinker92.2108.4221.608Home run
Sep 22RHPSplitter86.875.70.110Single
Sep 22LHPSinker95.399.3-6.296Out
Sep 20RHPSlider85.375.361.034Out
Sep 18LHPSlider88.4106.214.740Single
Sep 18RHPCurveball87.191.720.260Single
Sep 17RHPCutter93.882.744.021Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511002
Sep 23426101
Sep 22411002
Sep 20400003
Sep 18522003
Sep 17511012
Sep 16512011
Sep 15600041
Sep 13522010
Sep 12525110

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%21.6%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.6%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%21.3%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.7%
Brice Turang bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brice Turang with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.1%44.1%
Whiff%22.0%22.7%
Contact%78.0%77.3%
Chase%35.2%38.1%
wOBA.228.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.2%25.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.367
K%23.8%
BB%11.9%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%3.7%
Hard-hit%24.8%
Avg EV87.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

101 PA
wOBA.319
xwOBA vs this mix.313against pitches like his
RV/100-0.57
Hard-hit%20.1%
K%22.1%
BB%12.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 26.7%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.5%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.5%15%67 strikeouts: 10.4%10%78 strikeouts: 6.6%7%89+ strikeouts: 6.9%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brice Turang: every projection we've made →