MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 7Cooper Pratt
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.306wOBA vs LHP.278xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.0projected K20%K%2.1trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Cooper Pratt: wOBA .331 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Cooper Pratt: wOBA .308 vs league .314 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Cooper Pratt: wOBA .304 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Cooper Pratt: wOBA .317 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Cooper Pratt: wOBA .352 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Cooper Pratt's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Cooper Pratt's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 77.1 mph at 14°Single: 55.3 mph at -82°Single: 90.4 mph at -12°Out: 88.6 mph at 31°Out: 73.6 mph at -18°Out: 83.8 mph at -40°Single: 100.0 mph at 17°Single: 97.3 mph at 17°Out: 102.2 mph at 5°Single: 99.9 mph at 7°Out: 91.9 mph at 26°Out: 69.4 mph at -49°Single: 98.2 mph at -5°Out: 77.0 mph at -27°Single: 103.9 mph at 13°Single: 91.2 mph at 16°Out: 96.3 mph at 23°Out: 75.6 mph at -6°Out: 90.4 mph at 62°Out: 80.0 mph at 26°Single: 94.6 mph at 12°Single: 91.3 mph at 19°Double: 99.3 mph at 26°Out: 94.0 mph at -20°Single: 92.5 mph at 13°Single: 83.3 mph at 3°Out: 104.8 mph at 9°Out: 92.8 mph at -11°Out: 81.1 mph at 2°Out: 91.0 mph at 32°Out: 90.1 mph at 10°Out: 60.9 mph at -5°Out: 87.7 mph at -39°Out: 65.9 mph at -18°Out: 74.5 mph at 69°Out: 37.3 mph at -53°Single: 85.8 mph at 8°Out: 94.5 mph at 20°Out: 28.7 mph at 15°Out: 96.5 mph at -12°
25% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.0%59.9%+0.1
2+ total bases31.0%30.7%+0.3
Home run7.7%7.3%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Cooper Pratt against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.331.33719.2%17.2%14About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.308.31425.7%28.5%7Little history vs this shape
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.304.31027.7%32.6%5Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.317.32323.5%26.2%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.352.35818.1%16.2%18About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Cooper Pratt · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.250.400.250.320.36640.0%20.0%33.3%101.1102.20.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G815.308.357.308.321.30113.3%6.7%14.8%81.3102.20.0%16.7%25.0%
Last 30 G1734.296.344.481.388.30517.6%5.9%13.0%80.2103.94.0%20.0%32.0%
90 days2955.200.283.311.296.27523.6%9.1%20.0%79.3103.92.8%19.4%30.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 36 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 11%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.333.429.333.357.27814.3%14.3%13.0%82.7100.00.0%20.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1341.306.375.333.349.34312.2%9.8%11.9%86.5104.83.1%28.1%50.0%
Last 30 G2578.257.299.286.280.30415.4%6.4%14.0%86.1106.11.7%25.0%45.0%
90 days50164.315.374.406.359.32716.5%9.1%17.8%86.8106.13.3%30.0%45.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 120 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 27%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.312.421.312.347.30121.1%15.8%18.8%85.8102.20.0%33.3%41.7%
Last 15 G1556.306.370.327.342.33212.5%8.9%12.8%85.1104.82.3%25.0%43.2%
Last 30 G30112.268.312.340.312.30516.1%6.2%13.7%84.4106.12.4%23.5%41.2%
90 days58219.287.352.383.344.31518.3%9.1%18.3%85.1106.13.2%27.6%42.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 156 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 23%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 4%
Cooper Pratt · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating45Average
Last 100 pitches75trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.332 / .310running 22 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSweeper82.177.114.535Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.955.3-82.147Single
Sep 24RHPCutter92.090.4-12.113Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper81.688.631.082Out
Sep 22RHPSinker95.073.6-18.054Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter98.083.8-40.070Out
Sep 20RHPSlider86.4100.017.542Single
Sep 20RHPSinker96.997.317.557Single
Sep 19LHPChangeup87.1102.25.541Out
Sep 18LHPCurveball78.799.97.591Single
Sep 18RHPCurveball87.891.926.152Out
Sep 18RHPSinker93.569.4-49.245Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24422010
Sep 22400001
Sep 20422011
Sep 19300002
Sep 18411010
Sep 17211000
Sep 16422000
Sep 13311000
Sep 12534001
Sep 11511011

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%21.6%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.6%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%21.3%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.7%
Cooper Pratt bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Cooper Pratt with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.1%41.6%
Whiff%23.2%21.7%
Contact%76.8%78.3%
Chase%42.4%40.0%
wOBA.237.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.7%23.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.331
K%19.0%
BB%8.8%
Whiff%8.8%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%21.0%
Avg EV85.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

55 PA
wOBA.306
xwOBA vs this mix.278against pitches like his
RV/100-0.42
Hard-hit%17.6%
K%23.0%
BB%9.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 26.7%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.5%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.5%15%67 strikeouts: 10.4%10%78 strikeouts: 6.6%7%89+ strikeouts: 6.9%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Cooper Pratt: every projection we've made →