MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 1Garrett Mitchell
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerCold
.355wOBA vs LHP.371xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.0projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .353 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .319 vs league .311 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .288 vs league .280 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .308 vs league .301 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .351 vs league .343 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Garrett Mitchell's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Garrett Mitchell's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 87.3 mph at 14°Out: 101.8 mph at 2°Out: 67.1 mph at -46°Out: 63.7 mph at -66°Out: 99.2 mph at 21°Single: 58.0 mph at 35°Single: 109.4 mph at 6°Out: 87.0 mph at 4°Out: 95.8 mph at 33°Out: 76.3 mph at -24°Out: 93.9 mph at -8°Out: 38.0 mph at -23°Double: 109.6 mph at 17°Out: 94.6 mph at -21°Double: 105.6 mph at 9°Single: 104.9 mph at 5°Single: 86.4 mph at 7°Double: 100.3 mph at 20°Home run: 108.1 mph at 33°Out: 82.1 mph at 72°Home run: 105.7 mph at 24°Single: 102.6 mph at -2°Out: 88.8 mph at -6°Out: 90.9 mph at 19°Single: 110.5 mph at 2°Out: 89.7 mph at 7°Out: 67.5 mph at -54°Out: 106.9 mph at 13°Single: 111.0 mph at 9°Out: 101.8 mph at 6°Single: 105.4 mph at 11°Triple: 109.2 mph at 21°Out: 96.2 mph at -3°Out: 105.4 mph at -26°Out: 98.8 mph at -6°Out: 60.9 mph at 37°Double: 105.4 mph at 14°Single: 105.6 mph at 10°Single: 112.3 mph at 2°Out: 103.2 mph at -8°
60% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.7%56.6%-0.8
2+ total bases31.1%32.7%-1.6
Home run8.8%10.9%-2.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Garrett Mitchell against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.353.34623.3%19.8%16About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.319.31132.3%29.6%12About league average vs these
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.288.28036.7%34.1%3Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.308.30130.0%27.4%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.351.34315.4%12.9%25About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Garrett Mitchell · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.000.250.000.175.31425.0%25.0%28.6%79.895.80.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G817.154.312.154.256.31435.3%11.8%25.0%85.4111.00.0%50.0%12.5%
Last 30 G1734.207.303.310.288.35726.5%8.8%26.9%92.7111.04.8%57.1%14.3%
90 days3765.278.391.426.368.39324.6%12.3%26.8%91.6111.07.7%56.4%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 23%Fly ball 8%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.176.222.176.200.24150.0%5.6%40.6%87.1109.40.0%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1343.325.372.600.448.42732.6%7.0%32.9%94.9110.516.0%56.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2473.353.397.559.445.38832.9%5.5%32.6%94.6112.39.3%58.1%37.2%
90 days63205.272.346.418.353.36430.7%9.3%32.2%93.9112.310.2%55.9%34.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 118 balls in play
Ground 61%Line drive 25%Fly ball 9%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.150.227.150.195.25545.5%9.1%38.5%85.5109.40.0%44.4%22.2%
Last 15 G1560.283.356.491.394.39533.3%8.3%30.7%92.6111.012.1%54.5%33.3%
Last 30 G30107.309.368.485.395.37830.8%6.5%30.9%94.0112.37.8%57.8%29.7%
90 days72270.273.357.420.356.37129.3%10.0%31.1%93.3112.39.6%56.1%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 157 balls in play
Ground 62%Line drive 25%Fly ball 9%Pop-up 4%
Garrett Mitchell · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating92Top tier
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.353 / .370running 17 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup89.387.314.864Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball79.0101.82.515Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.167.1-46.263Force out
Sep 23LHPSlider86.563.7-66.272Out
Sep 22RHPFastball92.899.221.409Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.858.035.252Single
Sep 20RHPFastball92.9109.46.648Single
Sep 20RHPSlider84.687.04.441Force out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.395.833.285Out
Sep 18LHPSlider88.776.3-24.042Out
Sep 18LHPSinker97.093.9-8.264Force out
Sep 18LHPSinker95.238.0-23–Sac bunt
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511004
Sep 23400001
Sep 22411002
Sep 20511011
Sep 19400012
Sep 18500002
Sep 17212001
Sep 15512011
Sep 13200011
Sep 12548100

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%21.6%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.6%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%21.3%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.7%
Garrett Mitchell bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Garrett Mitchell with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.7%44.1%
Whiff%22.7%22.7%
Contact%77.3%77.3%
Chase%32.4%38.1%
wOBA.218.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.1%25.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.332
K%29.0%
BB%9.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Barrel%5.3%
Hard-hit%31.3%
Avg EV92.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

65 PA
wOBA.355
xwOBA vs this mix.371against pitches like his
RV/1000.56
Hard-hit%31.9%
K%24.7%
BB%9.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 26.7%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.5%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.5%15%67 strikeouts: 10.4%10%78 strikeouts: 6.6%7%89+ strikeouts: 6.9%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Garrett Mitchell: every projection we've made →