MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 1Jackson Chourio
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.410wOBA vs LHP.371xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.1projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Jackson Chourio: wOBA .383 vs league .353 (hitter's edge).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Jackson Chourio: wOBA .349 vs league .320 (hitter's edge).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Jackson Chourio: wOBA .338 vs league .309 (hitter's edge).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Jackson Chourio: wOBA .326 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Jackson Chourio: wOBA .393 vs league .363 (hitter's edge).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jackson Chourio's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jackson Chourio's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 71.0 mph at 19°Home run: 108.4 mph at 35°Single: 74.3 mph at -48°Out: 96.8 mph at 27°Out: 71.3 mph at 55°Out: 85.5 mph at 30°Single: 105.5 mph at 2°Out: 91.7 mph at 42°Out: 97.9 mph at -9°Home run: 107.5 mph at 28°Out: 109.4 mph at -2°Out: 103.9 mph at 13°Single: 87.2 mph at 13°Out: 64.4 mph at -15°Out: 90.4 mph at 26°Out: 77.3 mph at 47°Out: 102.0 mph at -11°Single: 91.7 mph at -4°Out: 107.6 mph at 17°Out: 90.6 mph at 37°Out: 75.5 mph at -13°Out: 93.1 mph at 5°Out: 77.1 mph at -11°Out: 96.4 mph at 9°Out: 101.3 mph at 7°Single: 92.6 mph at 2°Out: 68.6 mph at 6°Double: 96.0 mph at 27°Single: 102.4 mph at 10°Single: 107.1 mph at 12°Out: 69.2 mph at -16°Double: 99.4 mph at 11°Single: 99.6 mph at 10°Home run: 108.5 mph at 28°Out: 82.8 mph at 35°Single: 71.5 mph at 19°Single: 70.2 mph at 29°Single: 75.6 mph at -54°Out: 63.6 mph at -45°Home run: 109.8 mph at 23°
45% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.4%65.1%+0.3
2+ total bases42.0%41.8%+0.2
Home run15.6%15.5%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jackson Chourio hits
Where they meet

.343 xwOBA for Jackson Chourio in the spots Quinn Mathews throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .303 (+39 points). His best spot against lefties is middle, and Quinn Mathews puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Quinn Mathews · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing6%14% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing14%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing19%18% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 55% per swing18%
All · 559 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%24% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters24%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%
Fastball · 249 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%10% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters10%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters22%47% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters47%
Changeup · 123 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters8%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Slider · 101 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%26% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters26%16% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16%
Curveball · 82 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jackson Chourio · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .267 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 14 pitches seen.248xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .224 on 4 PA) · league .296 · 6 pitches seen.278xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .610 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 22 pitches seen.325xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw .542 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 17 pitches seen.386xwOBA .527 shrunk (raw .682 on 11 PA) · league .385 · 20 pitches seen.527xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .416 on 9 PA) · league .340 · 27 pitches seen.373xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .177 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 15 pitches seen.241xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .291 on 12 PA) · league .350 · 31 pitches seen.320xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .127 on 9 PA) · league .299 · 21 pitches seen.225xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .306 on 12 PA) · league .302 · 41 pitches seen.304xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .481 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 68 pitches seen.396xwOBA .398 shrunk (raw .499 on 13 PA) · league .289 · 93 pitches seen.398xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .289 on 11 PA) · league .257 · 66 pitches seen.272
vs LHP · 441 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 19%38%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 21%60%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 23%10%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 9%20%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 22% of 18 swings · league 11%22%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 14%10%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 16%17%Whiff 41% of 22 swings · league 25%41%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 29%10%Whiff 24% of 38 swings · league 48%24%Whiff 29% of 14 swings · league 34%29%
vs LHP · 441 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 63%57%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 71%83%Swings at 46% of 22 pitches · league 64%46%Swings at 59% of 17 pitches · league 67%59%Swings at 85% of 20 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 67% of 27 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 59%60%Swings at 65% of 31 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 57% of 21 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 54% of 41 pitches · league 30%54%Swings at 15% of 68 pitches · league 26%15%Swings at 41% of 93 pitches · league 31%41%Swings at 21% of 66 pitches · league 41%21%
vs LHP · 441 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jackson Chourio against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.383.35320.0%17.3%111About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.349.32028.8%30.2%56About league average vs these
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.338.30925.5%28.8%47About league average vs these
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.326.29725.2%27.4%25About league average vs these
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.393.36319.0%16.4%148About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jackson Chourio · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G451.0001.0002.0001.040.7670.0%40.0%0.0%96.1108.433.3%66.7%0.0%
Last 15 G1018.625.6671.188.758.60711.1%11.1%13.8%92.8108.414.3%50.0%57.1%
Last 30 G2048.386.438.750.498.41410.4%8.3%15.6%90.5109.57.7%41.0%35.9%
90 days52110.326.418.568.429.39718.2%13.6%22.8%91.3109.59.3%44.0%34.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.111.273.111.209.24845.5%18.2%33.3%81.296.80.0%25.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1448.214.312.357.302.36231.2%12.5%35.7%88.5109.811.1%40.7%40.7%
Last 30 G2889.259.315.420.321.32328.1%7.9%28.7%90.1109.88.8%49.1%29.8%
90 days74241.258.315.403.320.32926.6%7.5%25.8%90.9110.99.5%48.1%33.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 19%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.333.500.583.469.41031.2%25.0%25.0%87.5108.414.3%42.9%42.9%
Last 15 G1566.328.409.586.427.42925.8%12.1%30.1%90.0109.812.2%43.9%46.3%
Last 30 G30137.304.358.536.383.35521.9%8.0%24.6%90.3109.88.3%45.8%32.3%
90 days79351.278.348.453.353.35023.9%9.4%24.9%91.1110.99.4%46.8%33.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 233 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 19%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 9%
Jackson Chourio · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating87Excellent
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.355 / .360results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup81.671.019.748Single
Sep 24LHPFastball93.9108.4351.759Home run
Sep 23LHPSlider86.274.3-48.183Single
Sep 23RHPCutter86.596.827.494Out
Sep 22RHPSinker99.271.355.054Out
Sep 20RHPSlider84.785.530.034Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball84.2105.52.498Single
Sep 19LHPChangeup87.791.742.005Out
Sep 19RHPSinker99.597.9-9.280Out
Sep 18LHPChangeup85.9107.5281.918Home run
Sep 18RHPSinker94.9109.4-2.424Out
Sep 18RHPFastball97.0103.913.875Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25211010
Sep 24214110
Sep 23411002
Sep 22400012
Sep 20411011
Sep 19400002
Sep 18625111
Sep 17500012
Sep 16511001
Sep 15500001

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%22.2%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.4%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%20.9%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.8%
Jackson Chourio bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jackson Chourio with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.1%41.4%
Whiff%23.6%22.0%
Contact%76.4%78.0%
Chase%39.8%40.7%
wOBA.285.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.4%23.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.349
K%23.6%
BB%8.9%
Whiff%11.6%
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%30.8%
Avg EV90.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

110 PA
wOBA.410
xwOBA vs this mix.371against pitches like his
RV/1001.64
Hard-hit%29.7%
K%19.3%
BB%9.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL6 days' rest
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.7%26%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.7%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.8%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.5%8%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jackson Chourio: every projection we've made →