MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 4Jake Bauers
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.431wOBA vs LHP.386xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.0projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .371 vs league .346 (hitter's edge).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .336 vs league .311 (hitter's edge).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .305 vs league .280 (hitter's edge).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .325 vs league .301 (hitter's edge).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .368 vs league .343 (hitter's edge).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake Bauers's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake Bauers's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.3 mph at -18°Single: 104.1 mph at -8°Double: 97.1 mph at 28°Out: 93.3 mph at 30°Single: 80.2 mph at 6°Out: 75.4 mph at -11°Double: 105.7 mph at 19°Out: 66.9 mph at -14°Double: 104.2 mph at 21°Single: 90.9 mph at 16°Out: 67.4 mph at 50°Home run: 108.1 mph at 21°Out: 72.0 mph at 22°Out: 97.6 mph at 36°Single: 71.4 mph at 29°Out: 78.9 mph at 6°Home run: 109.8 mph at 22°Single: 102.4 mph at 16°Out: 96.1 mph at 64°Out: 89.3 mph at 5°Out: 90.7 mph at 25°Home run: 109.8 mph at 26°Out: 77.4 mph at 78°Out: 102.0 mph at 45°Single: 102.1 mph at 0°Out: 86.0 mph at 7°Out: 90.1 mph at 26°Out: 95.2 mph at 5°Out: 59.1 mph at 44°Out: 92.9 mph at -13°Single: 103.0 mph at 7°Single: 110.1 mph at 6°Out: 97.0 mph at 59°Single: 95.1 mph at 17°Single: 67.3 mph at 26°Out: 97.4 mph at 44°Out: 89.8 mph at -4°Single: 102.3 mph at 15°Out: 53.6 mph at -44°Home run: 106.5 mph at 27°
50% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.6%58.9%+2.6
2+ total bases36.5%35.0%+1.5
Home run13.5%14.5%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+3.2
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
+3.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-2.7
Pitch mix
+1.4
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jake Bauers against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.371.34619.0%19.8%24About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.336.31131.5%29.6%13About league average vs these
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.305.28036.6%34.1%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.325.30129.3%27.4%2Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.368.34312.2%12.9%34About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake Bauers · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.400.500.600.475.25016.7%16.7%44.4%85.9104.10.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G815.286.333.786.457.36220.0%6.7%33.3%90.1109.818.2%54.5%36.4%
Last 30 G1946.324.457.703.493.42423.9%17.4%28.2%87.6109.816.0%48.0%52.0%
90 days4085.294.424.647.451.39521.2%17.6%23.8%89.2111.116.0%44.0%46.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 20%Fly ball 42%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.167.286.250.254.19657.1%14.3%46.7%89.6105.725.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1443.258.465.419.405.39539.5%27.9%39.5%91.5109.821.4%42.9%57.1%
Last 30 G2776.236.447.345.376.38538.2%27.6%41.0%93.3110.111.5%53.8%46.2%
90 days67200.256.400.406.367.38531.5%19.5%33.9%92.9114.811.3%53.6%45.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 97 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 30%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.235.350.353.320.21245.0%15.0%46.2%87.8105.712.5%37.5%37.5%
Last 15 G1558.267.431.533.418.38734.5%22.4%38.0%90.9109.820.0%48.0%48.0%
Last 30 G30122.272.451.489.419.39932.8%23.8%35.7%90.5110.113.7%51.0%49.0%
90 days71285.268.407.478.392.38828.4%18.9%30.5%91.6114.812.9%50.3%45.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 27%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 7%
Jake Bauers · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating97Top tier
Last 100 pitches41trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.391 / .396results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCurveball79.779.3-18.047Out
Sep 24LHPSinker96.4104.1-8.301Single
Sep 24LHPSlider88.897.128.399Double
Sep 23RHPFastball91.493.330.189Out
Sep 22RHPCutter90.780.26.272Single
Sep 20LHPSinker95.475.4-11.050Double play
Sep 20RHPSinker96.5105.719.835Double
Sep 18LHPSinker95.466.9-14.050Out
Sep 16RHPSinker99.1104.221.954Double
Sep 15RHPSlider88.890.916.869Single
Sep 15LHPFastball89.367.450.156Out
Sep 13LHPFastball93.0108.1211.420Home run
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24523002
Sep 23400003
Sep 22411003
Sep 20412020
Sep 18300011
Sep 16512022
Sep 15411002
Sep 13414101
Sep 12511012
Sep 11525101

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%21.6%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.6%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%21.3%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.7%
Jake Bauers bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake Bauers with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.2%44.1%
Whiff%21.1%22.7%
Contact%78.9%77.3%
Chase%31.5%38.1%
wOBA.253.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.3%25.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.373
K%27.8%
BB%17.9%
Whiff%11.9%
Barrel%6.5%
Hard-hit%26.1%
Avg EV91.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

85 PA
wOBA.431
xwOBA vs this mix.386against pitches like his
RV/1002.09
Hard-hit%25.9%
K%22.1%
BB%18.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 26.7%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.5%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.5%15%67 strikeouts: 10.4%10%78 strikeouts: 6.6%7%89+ strikeouts: 6.9%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Bauers: every projection we've made →