MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 5Alec Bohm
Bats rightTalent grade APowerHot
.318wOBA vs RHP.342xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · TBGriffin Jax
Throws rightBTB Stuff 112Trending Up
4.9projected K28%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Griffin Jax's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 87.0 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -1.6″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .270 vs league .272 (about even).Sweeper 25%Sinker: 24% usage, 95.1 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .343 vs league .346 (about even).Sinker 24%Changeup: 23% usage, 90.5 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .322 vs league .324 (about even).Changeup 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +18.1″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .337 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 9% usage, 84.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -14.4″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .274 vs league .276 (about even).Curveball 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Alec Bohm's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Alec Bohm's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 105.7 mph at -5°Out: 93.5 mph at 37°Single: 86.4 mph at 7°Out: 104.0 mph at -9°Single: 86.5 mph at 13°Out: 94.1 mph at 46°Out: 95.1 mph at -39°Double: 105.3 mph at 15°Single: 97.4 mph at 14°Out: 51.9 mph at -59°Single: 102.3 mph at -2°Out: 77.3 mph at 8°Out: 98.2 mph at 30°Single: 103.8 mph at 3°Single: 106.4 mph at 8°Out: 104.0 mph at 7°Out: 70.3 mph at 48°Out: 102.4 mph at 25°Out: 75.8 mph at 5°Single: 81.3 mph at -44°Out: 92.3 mph at 31°Out: 81.5 mph at 25°Out: 91.3 mph at -20°Single: 91.6 mph at 15°Single: 94.5 mph at 12°Single: 104.0 mph at 6°Out: 92.3 mph at -12°Out: 59.1 mph at -45°Out: 96.0 mph at 24°Out: 83.8 mph at 32°Out: 98.2 mph at -30°Single: 105.4 mph at 14°Double: 103.0 mph at 22°Single: 106.8 mph at 3°Single: 104.9 mph at 5°Out: 91.4 mph at 7°Out: 103.3 mph at 1°Out: 47.6 mph at -64°Out: 95.7 mph at 23°Out: 99.2 mph at -3°
53% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.4%68.4%-0.9
2+ total bases38.7%39.4%-0.7
Home run10.7%10.4%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
+1.2
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Alec Bohm against each of Griffin Jax's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%87.0-14″ / -2″.270.27222.5%30.5%12About league average vs these
Sinker24%95.1+17″ / +11″.343.3468.5%11.4%59About league average vs these
Changeup23%90.5+16″ / +3″.322.32413.4%19.1%34About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%95.6+8″ / +18″.337.34016.3%20.8%54About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball9%84.5-5″ / -14″.274.27623.6%31.8%11About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Alec Bohm · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.333.429.333.357.36321.4%14.3%18.8%90.7104.011.1%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1540.265.375.324.325.33517.5%15.0%15.6%90.8106.83.7%51.9%37.0%
Last 30 G2977.227.338.318.303.31419.5%13.0%17.3%89.8106.83.9%47.1%37.3%
90 days70217.243.336.360.314.34316.6%10.1%16.7%90.9107.46.5%46.8%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 154 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.429.429.571.564.37514.3%0.0%15.4%98.6106.40.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1122.400.455.500.464.5054.5%9.1%9.7%93.4106.410.5%52.6%47.4%
Last 30 G2148.409.458.568.467.4678.3%8.3%17.9%92.8107.710.0%55.0%45.0%
90 days4087.390.425.598.452.4428.0%4.6%14.2%93.3109.49.3%50.7%45.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 35%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.368.429.421.426.36719.0%9.5%17.2%93.9106.46.7%60.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1562.315.403.389.374.39512.9%12.9%13.7%91.8106.86.5%52.2%41.3%
Last 30 G30125.300.384.418.366.37315.2%11.2%17.5%91.1107.76.6%50.5%40.7%
90 days72304.288.362.432.354.37214.1%8.6%16.0%91.7109.47.4%48.0%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 229 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 25%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 4%
Alec Bohm · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating95Top tier
Last 100 pitches99steady
wOBA / xwOBA.356 / .384running 29 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker97.2105.7-5.343Error
Sep 24LHPFastball94.393.537.111Out
Sep 23RHPCutter86.986.47.388Single
Sep 23RHPSinker100.2104.0-9.277Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.686.513.823Single
Sep 22LHPSinker91.494.146.003Out
Sep 22RHPSinker96.795.1-39.065Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper81.5105.315.712Double
Sep 20RHPFastball93.197.414.863Single
Sep 20RHPCurveball77.551.9-59.212Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.8102.3-2.390Single
Sep 20RHPSinker94.077.38.255Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400011
Sep 23411002
Sep 22423000
Sep 20522000
Sep 19422011
Sep 18400000
Sep 17411000
Sep 16522030
Sep 15411010
Sep 13523000

Two strikes

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes
Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup23%28%45.1%36.2%18.6%
Fastball19%27%22.5%17.6%18.0%
Sinker24%18%9.1%28.3%16.9%
Sweeper25%18%30.0%13.6%19.3%
Curveball9%9%45.5%26.1%20.1%
Alec Bohm bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Alec Bohm with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.5%42.4%
Whiff%19.0%22.2%
Contact%81.0%77.8%
Chase%39.5%39.8%
wOBA.238.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.6%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.348
K%14.8%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%8.0%
Barrel%5.3%
Hard-hit%35.6%
Avg EV91.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.318
xwOBA vs this mix.342against pitches like his
RV/100-0.17
Hard-hit%32.8%
K%17.0%
BB%8.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.7%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.1%10%78 strikeouts: 6.2%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.5%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.7%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Velo91.1
BTB Stuff112
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%11387.011.0%
Sinker24%11495.13.6%
Changeup23%11390.423.8%
Fastball19%11395.615.0%
Curveball9%10384.513.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207426%14%16%.216
Sep 156741%15%12%.126
Sep 96611%6%33%.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Alec Bohm: every projection we've made →