MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 3Bryce Harper
Bats leftTalent grade BBalancedCold
.395wOBA vs RHP.387xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TBGriffin Jax
Throws rightBTB Stuff 112Trending Up
4.9projected K28%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Griffin Jax's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 87.0 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -1.6″ rise. Bryce Harper: wOBA .342 vs league .314 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 25%Sinker: 24% usage, 95.1 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Bryce Harper: wOBA .373 vs league .345 (hitter's edge).Sinker 24%Changeup: 23% usage, 90.5 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Bryce Harper: wOBA .337 vs league .309 (hitter's edge).Changeup 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +18.1″ rise. Bryce Harper: wOBA .368 vs league .340 (hitter's edge).Fastball 19%Curveball: 9% usage, 84.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -14.4″ rise. Bryce Harper: wOBA .305 vs league .277 (hitter's edge).Curveball 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bryce Harper's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bryce Harper's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 92.6 mph at 8°Out: 72.4 mph at 50°Out: 87.2 mph at -23°Single: 98.7 mph at 11°Out: 83.3 mph at 61°Out: 77.7 mph at 60°Out: 95.9 mph at -11°Out: 88.6 mph at 2°Out: 85.7 mph at 27°Out: 97.0 mph at -23°Out: 95.3 mph at 28°Out: 35.5 mph at -69°Single: 93.2 mph at 1°Out: 75.0 mph at -1°Out: 107.2 mph at 15°Double: 73.0 mph at 51°Out: 68.9 mph at 66°Out: 100.4 mph at 22°Out: 73.0 mph at 73°Single: 80.6 mph at -9°Single: 72.8 mph at 30°Single: 106.7 mph at -3°Out: 69.3 mph at 58°Out: 83.7 mph at 32°Single: 90.8 mph at 6°Out: 73.6 mph at -3°Out: 88.9 mph at -7°Out: 75.9 mph at -2°Out: 90.5 mph at 24°Out: 91.4 mph at 19°Double: 107.2 mph at 20°Double: 66.3 mph at 43°Out: 82.3 mph at -12°Home run: 108.2 mph at 26°Out: 84.0 mph at -34°Double: 79.7 mph at 30°Single: 91.5 mph at 8°Out: 88.1 mph at 0°Out: 97.0 mph at -3°Out: 100.1 mph at 21°
28% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.2%61.5%+0.7
2+ total bases38.0%36.5%+1.6
Home run14.4%12.2%+2.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+1.7
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
+1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+1.6
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
+1.5
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+1.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Bryce Harper against each of Griffin Jax's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%87.0-14″ / -2″.342.31431.2%27.9%8Little history vs this shape
Sinker24%95.1+17″ / +11″.373.34520.0%14.5%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup23%90.5+16″ / +3″.337.30927.5%24.4%40About league average vs these
Fastball19%95.6+8″ / +18″.368.34025.7%18.9%35About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball9%84.5-5″ / -14″.305.27739.8%36.0%14About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bryce Harper · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G412.222.333.333.296.3110.0%16.7%30.4%87.1107.20.0%40.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1236.290.361.419.343.30819.4%11.1%35.4%89.5108.24.0%40.0%32.0%
Last 30 G2470.351.457.561.452.42218.6%17.1%31.0%91.3108.511.1%44.4%44.4%
90 days68209.294.416.529.413.40619.6%17.7%27.7%91.7112.69.9%48.1%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.200.200.200.200.26710.0%0.0%20.8%82.198.70.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1129.214.241.321.255.21027.6%3.4%31.7%83.1107.25.3%21.1%36.8%
Last 30 G2258.286.310.393.314.24031.0%3.4%32.3%84.6109.35.4%32.4%48.6%
90 days58128.215.336.308.301.26530.5%14.8%32.2%84.3109.34.4%25.0%38.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.211.273.263.255.2924.5%9.1%25.5%84.9107.20.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1565.254.308.373.305.26523.1%7.7%33.6%86.7108.24.5%31.8%34.1%
Last 30 G30128.319.391.478.390.34024.2%10.9%31.6%88.3109.38.5%39.0%46.3%
90 days77337.264.386.444.371.35223.7%16.6%29.5%89.2112.68.0%40.2%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 199 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 9%
Bryce Harper · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating84Excellent
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.366 / .356results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker95.192.68.512Single
Sep 24LHPSweeper82.472.450.152Out
Sep 24LHPSinker97.187.2-23.063Out
Sep 24LHPSlider86.898.711.855Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.783.361.017Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.377.760.008Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.095.9-11.200Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper82.888.62.304Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper83.085.727.079Out
Sep 20RHPCutter92.797.0-23.108Force out
Sep 20RHPFastball91.395.328.276Out
Sep 20LHPSlider85.335.5-69.238Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24422000
Sep 23400010
Sep 22400010
Sep 20511000
Sep 19512001
Sep 18400003
Sep 17533011
Sep 16511011
Sep 15400001
Sep 13524001

Two strikes

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes
Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup23%28%45.1%36.2%18.6%
Fastball19%27%22.5%17.6%18.0%
Sinker24%18%9.1%28.3%16.9%
Sweeper25%18%30.0%13.6%19.3%
Curveball9%9%45.5%26.1%20.1%
Bryce Harper bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Bryce Harper with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.4%41.0%
Whiff%23.2%21.3%
Contact%76.8%78.7%
Chase%36.9%39.6%
wOBA.275.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.9%21.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.365
K%23.4%
BB%15.9%
Whiff%13.7%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV89.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

206 PA
wOBA.395
xwOBA vs this mix.387against pitches like his
RV/1001.49
Hard-hit%29.0%
K%20.2%
BB%16.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.7%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.1%10%78 strikeouts: 6.2%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.5%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.7%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Velo91.1
BTB Stuff112
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%11387.011.0%
Sinker24%11495.13.6%
Changeup23%11390.423.8%
Fastball19%11395.615.0%
Curveball9%10384.513.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207426%14%16%.216
Sep 156741%15%12%.126
Sep 96611%6%33%.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bryce Harper: every projection we've made →