MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TB · batting 2Jonathan Aranda
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.331wOBA vs RHP.316xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · PHIAaron Nola
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
4.6projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Aaron Nola's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 30% usage, 92.7 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .384 vs league .359 (hitter's edge).Fastball 30%Curveball: 30% usage, 78.8 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -10.6″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .319 vs league .293 (hitter's edge).Curveball 30%Sinker: 18% usage, 91.8 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +8.8″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .378 vs league .353 (hitter's edge).Sinker 18%Changeup: 15% usage, 85.6 mph, +15.0″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .322 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Changeup 15%Cutter: 7% usage, 86.7 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +7.6″ rise. Jonathan Aranda: wOBA .383 vs league .357 (hitter's edge).Cutter 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jonathan Aranda's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jonathan Aranda's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 88.3 mph at 18°Out: 98.4 mph at -25°Out: 51.0 mph at 2°Single: 98.9 mph at 16°Out: 102.5 mph at 29°Out: 64.4 mph at 0°Home run: 98.7 mph at 31°Out: 54.9 mph at -59°Out: 94.3 mph at 48°Out: 57.5 mph at -13°Double: 98.1 mph at 25°Out: 93.9 mph at -6°Double: 97.1 mph at 21°Out: 102.9 mph at 19°Out: 75.5 mph at 13°Single: 83.7 mph at 21°Home run: 103.0 mph at 32°Home run: 99.8 mph at 37°Single: 102.6 mph at 15°Out: 84.4 mph at 51°Out: 99.6 mph at -1°Out: 84.0 mph at 68°Out: 96.7 mph at -9°Double: 95.7 mph at 35°Out: 92.2 mph at -6°Out: 90.6 mph at -16°Out: 88.4 mph at -12°Single: 70.9 mph at 7°Out: 94.7 mph at 3°Out: 72.1 mph at -40°Double: 98.3 mph at 13°Out: 91.2 mph at 47°Single: 91.9 mph at 16°Out: 77.8 mph at 75°Out: 89.1 mph at 51°Out: 103.7 mph at -1°Home run: 100.7 mph at 30°Single: 94.9 mph at 17°Double: 88.9 mph at 24°Home run: 103.6 mph at 33°
43% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.2%64.8%+1.4
2+ total bases42.9%40.9%+1.9
Home run16.1%14.2%+1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+1.5
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+1.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jonathan Aranda hits
Where they meet

.311 xwOBA for Jonathan Aranda in the spots Aaron Nola throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .298 (+13 points). His best spot against righties is down-right, and Aaron Nola puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Aaron Nola · where he throws to left-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing2%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing2%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing10%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing8%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing4%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 54% per swing8%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing7%23% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing23%24% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 54% per swing24%
All · 1004 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%7% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters19%43% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters43%
Curveball · 300 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%
Fastball · 263 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters14%10% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters10%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters50% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters50%17% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Changeup · 253 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%20% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters20%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%26% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters26%
Sinker · 121 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%31% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters31%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters25% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters25%
Cutter · 67 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jonathan Aranda · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .155 shrunk (raw .037 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 64 pitches seen.155xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .268 on 14 PA) · league .307 · 49 pitches seen.286xwOBA .152 shrunk (raw .003 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 29 pitches seen.152xwOBA .441 shrunk (raw .526 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 66 pitches seen.441xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .313 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 49 pitches seen.343xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .244 on 16 PA) · league .321 · 41 pitches seen.277xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .331 on 18 PA) · league .308 · 37 pitches seen.322xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .357 on 26 PA) · league .351 · 54 pitches seen.355xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .550 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 31 pitches seen.431xwOBA .419 shrunk (raw .450 on 16 PA) · league .377 · 161 pitches seen.419xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .349 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 86 pitches seen.310xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .273 on 27 PA) · league .263 · 114 pitches seen.270xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .297 on 39 PA) · league .274 · 149 pitches seen.292
vs RHP · 930 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 38% of 32 swings · league 22%38%Whiff 32% of 37 swings · league 20%32%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 19%16%Whiff 25% of 48 swings · league 10%25%Whiff 11% of 36 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 9% of 35 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 10% of 29 swings · league 14%10%Whiff 0% of 44 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 9% of 23 swings · league 17%9%Whiff 45% of 20 swings · league 28%45%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 24%16%Whiff 9% of 56 swings · league 32%9%Whiff 37% of 78 swings · league 49%37%
vs RHP · 930 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 64 pitches · league 62%50%Swings at 76% of 49 pitches · league 72%76%Swings at 66% of 29 pitches · league 66%66%Swings at 73% of 66 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 74% of 49 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 85% of 41 pitches · league 70%85%Swings at 78% of 37 pitches · league 65%78%Swings at 82% of 54 pitches · league 68%82%Swings at 74% of 31 pitches · league 60%74%Swings at 12% of 161 pitches · league 24%12%Swings at 22% of 86 pitches · league 34%22%Swings at 49% of 114 pitches · league 40%49%Swings at 52% of 149 pitches · league 32%52%
vs RHP · 930 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jonathan Aranda against each of Aaron Nola's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball30%92.7+13″ / +15″.384.35920.4%17.6%287About league average vs these
Curveball30%78.8-14″ / -11″.319.29326.8%29.8%45About league average vs these
Sinker18%91.8+17″ / +9″.378.35317.2%15.1%191About league average vs these
Changeup15%85.6+15″ / +3″.322.29616.6%28.0%125About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter7%86.7-0″ / +8″.383.35724.2%21.1%138About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jonathan Aranda · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.111.111.444.222.09866.7%0.0%26.1%87.298.70.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1438.212.316.515.378.26834.2%10.5%27.0%91.0103.05.0%45.0%30.0%
Last 30 G2886.227.326.467.354.32831.4%9.3%25.7%93.7110.06.2%52.1%43.8%
90 days71233.270.335.412.334.31625.3%7.3%20.4%91.8110.97.8%46.4%39.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.333.429.333.357.48928.6%14.3%28.6%85.2102.525.0%50.0%75.0%
Last 15 G921.316.333.474.340.31023.8%4.8%20.0%84.2102.56.7%33.3%46.7%
Last 30 G1534.281.294.562.354.27823.5%2.9%18.0%86.2102.512.0%40.0%36.0%
90 days4182.237.280.368.295.30928.0%4.9%19.2%89.4108.211.1%46.3%46.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 30%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.200.250.400.281.27050.0%6.2%27.0%86.0102.514.3%57.1%57.1%
Last 15 G1559.250.322.500.364.28330.5%8.5%24.6%88.1103.05.7%40.0%37.1%
Last 30 G30120.243.317.495.354.31429.2%7.5%23.8%91.1110.08.2%47.9%41.1%
90 days74315.261.321.401.324.31526.0%6.7%20.1%91.2110.98.7%46.4%41.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 207 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 25%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 8%
Jonathan Aranda · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating73Above average
Last 100 pitches40trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.326 / .339results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider86.188.318.741Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball83.798.4-25.094Out
Sep 23LHPSinker88.551.02.099Out
Sep 22LHPSlider86.298.916.623Single
Sep 22LHPSlider86.2102.5291.265Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup89.464.40.075Out
Sep 19RHPFastball96.998.731.717Home run
Sep 18LHPChangeup82.454.9-59.190Out
Sep 18LHPCurveball77.394.348.010Out
Sep 18LHPSlider86.457.5-13.077Force out
Sep 18LHPSinker88.598.125.578Double
Sep 18RHPChangeup84.593.9-6.184Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411012
Sep 23400002
Sep 22311001
Sep 22100001
Sep 19414102
Sep 18512000
Sep 17512012
Sep 15411002
Sep 13528212
Sep 12411010

Two strikes

Aaron Nola PHI · RHPwith two strikes
Aaron Nola with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball32%47%43.7%29.6%20.7%
Fastball24%19%6.7%8.4%18.3%
Sinker16%19%10.0%18.3%17.7%
Changeup20%13%31.4%20.7%18.4%
Cutter7%1%0.0%0.0%18.7%
Slider1%0%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Jonathan Aranda bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jonathan Aranda with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.7%41.3%
Whiff%19.2%21.6%
Contact%80.8%78.4%
Chase%38.8%39.4%
wOBA.247.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.4%22.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.342
K%25.8%
BB%7.0%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%30.6%
Avg EV91.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

233 PA
wOBA.331
xwOBA vs this mix.316against pitches like his
RV/1000.29
Hard-hit%30.0%
K%25.2%
BB%6.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Aaron NolaRHP · PHI vs TB3 days' rest · short rest
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.3 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 33.1%33%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 17.1%17%56 strikeouts: 13.1%13%67 strikeouts: 8.5%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.5%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.8%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%12.9%
Velo85.9
BTB Stuff92
Location113
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball32%10378.424.0%
Fastball24%10492.44.0%
Changeup20%6585.613.3%
Sinker16%8291.64.2%
Cutter7%9686.410.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 238835%11%17%.298
Sep 178117%11%25%.200
Sep 1110111%11%30%.398

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Aaron Nola PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jonathan Aranda: every projection we've made →