MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 1Kyle Schwarber
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.327wOBA vs RHP.342xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · TBGriffin Jax
Throws rightBTB Stuff 112Trending Up
4.9projected K28%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Griffin Jax's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 87.0 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -1.6″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .313 vs league .314 (about even).Sweeper 25%Sinker: 24% usage, 95.1 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .343 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 24%Changeup: 23% usage, 90.5 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .308 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +18.1″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .338 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 9% usage, 84.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -14.4″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .276 vs league .277 (about even).Curveball 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Schwarber's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Schwarber's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 111.8 mph at 9°Single: 100.9 mph at 9°Out: 102.2 mph at -4°Out: 101.7 mph at 44°Out: 71.9 mph at -18°Out: 92.1 mph at 67°Out: 86.7 mph at -7°Out: 79.6 mph at 82°Out: 100.1 mph at 35°Out: 101.0 mph at 38°Double: 93.6 mph at 18°Out: 66.0 mph at -14°Out: 86.0 mph at 58°Out: 80.0 mph at 79°Out: 98.5 mph at 58°Out: 97.7 mph at 33°Out: 92.1 mph at 78°Out: 90.4 mph at 10°Home run: 98.3 mph at 33°Out: 95.7 mph at 24°Out: 70.6 mph at 50°Single: 108.6 mph at 8°Out: 90.9 mph at -21°Single: 104.2 mph at 12°Out: 100.8 mph at 35°Out: 86.4 mph at -2°Out: 77.3 mph at -24°Out: 93.4 mph at -25°Out: 104.2 mph at 48°Out: 70.3 mph at 3°Out: 91.1 mph at 56°Home run: 105.7 mph at 30°Single: 86.6 mph at 5°Out: 80.5 mph at 13°Out: 80.1 mph at 63°Out: 106.2 mph at 8°Out: 92.4 mph at 21°Out: 92.4 mph at 40°Home run: 107.8 mph at 29°Single: 110.7 mph at 3°
45% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.0%56.0%-0.9
2+ total bases38.4%38.0%+0.4
Home run21.3%19.5%+1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+1.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+2.0
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+2.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Schwarber against each of Griffin Jax's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%87.0-14″ / -2″.313.31432.8%27.9%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker24%95.1+17″ / +11″.343.34519.9%14.5%23About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup23%90.5+16″ / +3″.308.30932.5%24.4%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball19%95.6+8″ / +18″.338.34025.6%18.9%49About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball9%84.5-5″ / -14″.276.27741.8%36.0%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Schwarber · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.125.462.250.365.39423.1%38.5%26.7%91.7101.00.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1239.129.308.258.273.33130.8%20.5%24.4%92.8108.65.3%42.1%31.6%
Last 30 G2581.164.284.433.307.35928.4%14.8%30.3%90.4110.713.0%39.1%32.6%
90 days67221.196.323.419.326.35032.1%15.8%30.2%92.0110.711.5%49.6%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 113 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 21%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.250.400.375.355.34810.0%10.0%31.2%92.7111.80.0%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G1330.167.333.333.308.30520.0%13.3%22.2%90.7111.80.0%44.4%27.8%
Last 30 G2156.244.393.467.379.38317.9%16.1%23.2%92.1111.85.7%48.6%34.3%
90 days56119.235.361.418.347.33225.2%14.3%27.3%90.5112.25.8%42.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 25%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.188.435.312.361.37417.4%26.1%28.3%92.3111.80.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1569.145.319.291.288.32026.1%17.4%23.6%91.8111.82.7%43.2%29.7%
Last 30 G30137.196.328.446.336.36924.1%15.3%27.4%91.2111.89.9%43.2%33.3%
90 days75340.209.336.419.333.34329.7%15.3%29.1%91.4112.29.3%46.7%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 182 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 23%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 17%
Kyle Schwarber · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating84Excellent
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.336 / .356running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker94.3111.89.822Double
Sep 24LHPSinker93.8100.99.614Single
Sep 24LHPSinker97.5102.2-4.322Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.7101.744.103Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.671.9-18.040Out
Sep 23RHPFastball97.792.167.017Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper83.186.7-7.142Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper81.979.682.003Out
Sep 22RHPCutter94.1100.135.688Out
Sep 20RHPFastball94.7101.038.410Out
Sep 19RHPSplitter84.793.618.482Double
Sep 19LHPSweeper84.266.0-14.042Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24423000
Sep 23500011
Sep 22400001
Sep 20500040
Sep 19512012
Sep 18400011
Sep 17500011
Sep 16500012
Sep 15414110
Sep 13522010

Two strikes

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes
Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup23%28%45.1%36.2%18.6%
Fastball19%27%22.5%17.6%18.0%
Sinker24%18%9.1%28.3%16.9%
Sweeper25%18%30.0%13.6%19.3%
Curveball9%9%45.5%26.1%20.1%
Kyle Schwarber bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Schwarber with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.6%41.0%
Whiff%27.2%21.3%
Contact%72.8%78.7%
Chase%36.3%39.6%
wOBA.252.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.9%21.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.349
K%28.9%
BB%14.8%
Whiff%12.4%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%25.9%
Avg EV91.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.327
xwOBA vs this mix.342against pitches like his
RV/1000.23
Hard-hit%25.6%
K%30.6%
BB%14.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.7%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.1%10%78 strikeouts: 6.2%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.5%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.7%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Velo91.1
BTB Stuff112
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%11387.011.0%
Sinker24%11495.13.6%
Changeup23%11390.423.8%
Fastball19%11395.615.0%
Curveball9%10384.513.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207426%14%16%.216
Sep 156741%15%12%.126
Sep 96611%6%33%.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Schwarber: every projection we've made →