← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 8Ryan Vilade
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · PHITBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ryan Vilade's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.7 mph at -9°Out: 99.9 mph at 31°Out: 108.5 mph at -14°Out: 103.6 mph at -4°Out: 95.7 mph at -12°Out: 92.2 mph at -23°Out: 50.0 mph at 1°Out: 72.5 mph at 34°Single: 68.3 mph at 27°Out: 77.1 mph at 12°Single: 96.3 mph at 13°Out: 103.3 mph at 50°Single: 70.8 mph at 36°Out: 75.1 mph at 6°Out: 88.3 mph at 61°Out: 90.2 mph at 78°Triple: 105.4 mph at 12°Out: 102.9 mph at -7°Single: 82.1 mph at 15°Single: 95.3 mph at 5°Out: 91.0 mph at 5°Out: 104.4 mph at 34°Out: 77.7 mph at 59°Out: 102.7 mph at 38°Out: 100.7 mph at 5°Out: 108.2 mph at -27°Single: 113.0 mph at 12°Single: 109.0 mph at -3°Out: 90.4 mph at -39°Single: 94.2 mph at 11°Out: 51.5 mph at -76°Out: 83.3 mph at 60°Single: 105.0 mph at 0°Single: 90.3 mph at 12°Home run: 107.4 mph at 26°Out: 87.6 mph at -40°Double: 109.6 mph at 12°Home run: 106.9 mph at 23°Single: 101.3 mph at 13°Out: 101.8 mph at 41°
55% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.8%53.0%+0.8
2+ total bases31.8%30.6%+1.2
Home run12.7%11.4%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.3
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ryan Vilade · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.000.091.000.145.23445.5%9.1%37.5%101.0108.520.0%80.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1017.000.176.000.176.25047.1%17.6%31.8%96.7108.516.7%66.7%16.7%
Last 30 G1934.138.265.241.268.31732.4%14.7%24.1%86.4108.511.1%38.9%22.2%
90 days2547.100.234.175.223.29231.9%12.8%26.7%84.9108.58.0%32.0%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 25 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 16%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G310.143.400.143.411.44610.0%20.0%18.8%72.795.70.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1131.250.419.333.390.42719.4%16.1%24.1%86.5105.45.9%41.2%29.4%
Last 30 G2253.289.396.422.389.45020.8%11.3%23.3%91.8113.09.1%54.5%30.3%
90 days3684.270.357.527.394.39925.0%9.5%22.8%91.9113.011.5%50.0%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 23%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.059.238.059.265.32928.6%14.3%28.1%86.8108.510.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1548.158.333.211.313.36329.2%16.7%26.2%89.2108.58.7%47.8%26.1%
Last 30 G3087.230.345.351.341.39725.3%12.6%23.6%89.9113.09.8%49.0%27.5%
90 days44131.211.313.404.332.36027.5%10.7%24.0%89.6113.010.4%44.2%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 77 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 21%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 12%
Ryan Vilade · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating88Excellent
Last 100 pitches61trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.325 / .362running 37 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball94.8100.7-9.293Force out
Sep 23RHPSlider90.099.931.864Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter92.2108.5-14.238Out
Sep 23RHPSinker92.3103.6-4.392Error
Sep 22LHPCurveball74.095.7-12.171Out
Sep 22RHPSinker94.192.2-23.091Out
Sep 20LHPSweeper80.450.01.130Out
Sep 20LHPSlider83.972.534.342Out
Sep 18LHPSinker89.768.327.896Single
Sep 18LHPCurveball77.077.112.347Out
Sep 16LHPCurveball78.696.313.907Single
Sep 16LHPFastball92.2103.350.024Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400012
Sep 23400001
Sep 22400010
Sep 20400001
Sep 18511012
Sep 17300011
Sep 16411002
Sep 13100001
Sep 12100010
Sep 10411002

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ryan Vilade: every projection we've made →