MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 2Trea Turner
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedCold
.337wOBA vs RHP.281xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · TBGriffin Jax
Throws rightBTB Stuff 112Trending Up
4.9projected K28%K%2.6trips vs this hitter
Griffin Jax's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 87.0 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -1.6″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .280 vs league .272 (about even).Sweeper 25%Sinker: 24% usage, 95.1 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .354 vs league .346 (about even).Sinker 24%Changeup: 23% usage, 90.5 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .332 vs league .324 (about even).Changeup 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +18.1″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .348 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 9% usage, 84.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -14.4″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .285 vs league .276 (about even).Curveball 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Trea Turner's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Trea Turner's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.8 mph at -22°Out: 91.6 mph at 59°Out: 107.4 mph at 6°Out: 93.1 mph at 32°Out: 81.4 mph at 1°Out: 78.5 mph at -33°Out: 79.2 mph at 70°Out: 105.7 mph at -7°Out: 92.0 mph at -32°Single: 108.3 mph at 6°Double: 108.7 mph at 2°Single: 96.3 mph at 10°Out: 84.5 mph at 6°Single: 87.6 mph at 11°Out: 42.7 mph at -60°Single: 102.0 mph at 13°Out: 95.4 mph at 15°Out: 97.6 mph at 39°Out: 73.0 mph at -33°Out: 83.7 mph at -18°Out: 90.3 mph at 27°Out: 82.9 mph at -70°Out: 86.2 mph at 54°Out: 82.9 mph at 67°Single: 98.4 mph at 13°Out: 83.2 mph at 84°Out: 92.5 mph at 21°Single: 77.5 mph at 8°Single: 73.0 mph at 40°Out: 69.8 mph at -33°Out: 93.5 mph at -12°Single: 76.2 mph at -49°Out: 97.6 mph at 30°Out: 68.8 mph at -38°Out: 88.5 mph at 47°Out: 80.3 mph at 75°Out: 93.4 mph at 20°Out: 88.6 mph at 42°Out: 73.7 mph at -12°Home run: 101.0 mph at 23°
28% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.9%63.0%-2.1
2+ total bases32.9%34.6%-1.7
Home run9.4%9.6%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.0
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Trea Turner against each of Griffin Jax's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%87.0-14″ / -2″.280.27236.6%30.5%17About league average vs these
Sinker24%95.1+17″ / +11″.354.34614.2%11.4%40About league average vs these
Changeup23%90.5+16″ / +3″.332.32422.5%19.1%31About league average vs these
Fastball19%95.6+8″ / +18″.348.34024.8%20.8%38About league average vs these
Curveball9%84.5-5″ / -14″.285.27637.7%31.8%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Trea Turner · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.300.462.400.396.35915.4%23.1%25.0%90.3108.70.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1239.303.410.545.413.30715.4%15.4%27.2%87.9108.73.7%25.9%37.0%
Last 30 G2578.214.295.357.303.25623.1%10.3%28.4%87.6108.75.8%32.7%32.7%
90 days66222.252.311.460.340.27322.1%7.7%29.8%86.6110.15.2%34.2%31.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 155 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.222.300.222.378.36320.0%10.0%31.6%96.7108.30.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1128.154.214.154.219.29921.4%7.1%31.2%87.5108.30.0%36.8%26.3%
Last 30 G2156.212.268.250.260.32410.7%7.1%22.8%88.1108.34.4%35.6%22.2%
90 days50112.228.304.327.296.37214.3%8.9%19.2%89.9108.36.0%46.4%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 84 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 21%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.263.391.316.389.36117.4%17.4%27.7%93.0108.70.0%35.7%21.4%
Last 15 G1567.237.328.373.333.30417.9%11.9%28.7%87.7108.72.2%30.4%32.6%
Last 30 G30134.213.284.311.285.28417.9%9.0%26.2%87.8108.75.2%34.0%27.8%
90 days74334.244.308.416.326.30619.5%8.1%26.1%87.7110.15.4%38.5%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 239 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 13%
Trea Turner · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating39Below average
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.326 / .305running 21 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker94.187.8-22.101Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup88.091.659.010Out
Sep 24LHPCurveball81.7107.46.586Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.293.132.178Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper82.381.41.224Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.378.5-33.066Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.779.270.006Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup87.8105.7-7.385Error
Sep 22RHPSinker97.892.0-32.088Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.0108.36.584Single
Sep 20RHPFastball92.0108.72.458Double
Sep 19RHPSweeper81.496.310.648Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400001
Sep 23511001
Sep 22411000
Sep 20512022
Sep 19522020
Sep 18411001
Sep 17500020
Sep 16500011
Sep 15411000
Sep 13522011

Two strikes

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes
Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup23%28%45.1%36.2%18.6%
Fastball19%27%22.5%17.6%18.0%
Sinker24%18%9.1%28.3%16.9%
Sweeper25%18%30.0%13.6%19.3%
Curveball9%9%45.5%26.1%20.1%
Trea Turner bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Trea Turner with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.2%42.4%
Whiff%24.0%22.2%
Contact%76.0%77.8%
Chase%41.4%39.8%
wOBA.236.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.4%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.337
K%19.1%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%12.4%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%27.9%
Avg EV87.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

220 PA
wOBA.337
xwOBA vs this mix.281against pitches like his
RV/1000.57
Hard-hit%24.7%
K%21.4%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.7%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.1%10%78 strikeouts: 6.2%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.5%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.7%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Velo91.1
BTB Stuff112
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%11387.011.0%
Sinker24%11495.13.6%
Changeup23%11390.423.8%
Fastball19%11395.615.0%
Curveball9%10384.513.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207426%14%16%.216
Sep 156741%15%12%.126
Sep 96611%6%33%.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Trea Turner: every projection we've made →