MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 7Cody Freeman
Bats rightTalent grade FContactNormal
.279wOBA vs RHP.268xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
3.9projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 91.3 mph, +7.6″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Cody Freeman: wOBA .335 vs league .348 (about even).Fastball 41%Changeup: 27% usage, 83.4 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +6.0″ rise. Cody Freeman: wOBA .320 vs league .333 (about even).Changeup 27%Slider: 14% usage, 83.8 mph, -4.3″ arm side, +5.8″ rise. Cody Freeman: wOBA .296 vs league .309 (about even).Slider 14%Sweeper: 12% usage, 79.7 mph, -12.1″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Cody Freeman: wOBA .276 vs league .289 (about even).Sweeper 12%Curveball: 5% usage, 76.0 mph, -9.0″ arm side, -10.3″ rise. Cody Freeman: wOBA .287 vs league .299 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Cody Freeman's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Cody Freeman's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 81.3 mph at -12°Single: 95.9 mph at 14°Out: 104.4 mph at -20°Out: 45.2 mph at 40°Out: 88.9 mph at 3°Out: 61.1 mph at 17°Out: 77.6 mph at 0°Out: 96.8 mph at -4°Out: 83.5 mph at 80°Out: 89.3 mph at 2°Out: 30.6 mph at -51°Out: 80.3 mph at -48°Out: 88.9 mph at 43°Out: 95.0 mph at -25°Out: 77.0 mph at 45°Out: 89.0 mph at 32°Single: 34.2 mph at -37°Single: 93.3 mph at -2°Out: 90.4 mph at -33°Out: 85.1 mph at 25°Out: 95.3 mph at 40°Single: 99.0 mph at 12°Single: 69.3 mph at 22°Out: 95.4 mph at 19°Out: 77.9 mph at 38°Double: 96.9 mph at 21°Out: 67.8 mph at -15°Home run: 100.2 mph at 29°Out: 93.9 mph at 29°Out: 64.8 mph at -38°Out: 88.3 mph at -17°Out: 51.4 mph at 39°Out: 78.6 mph at -30°Out: 80.8 mph at 59°Out: 21.8 mph at -20°Single: 93.0 mph at -33°Out: 88.0 mph at 44°Out: 87.3 mph at 41°Out: 52.9 mph at -69°Single: 97.0 mph at 6°
25% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.1%56.3%+1.8
2+ total bases31.3%30.2%+1.2
Home run6.4%6.5%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Cody Freeman hits
Where they meet

.294 xwOBA for Cody Freeman in the spots Bailey Ober throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (-11 points). His best spot against righties is down and left, outside, and Bailey Ober puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Bailey Ober · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing8%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing7%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing10%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%35% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 56% per swing35%
All · 373 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters19% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters19%21% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters21%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 112 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%60% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters60%
Sweeper · 94 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%14% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%41% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters41%
Slider · 79 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%12% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%41% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters41%
Changeup · 66 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters23% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters23%18% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters18%
Sinker · 22 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Cody Freeman · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .118 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 6 pitches seen.252xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .245 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 6 pitches seen.295xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .098 on 4 PA) · league .342 · 15 pitches seen.281xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .386 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .321 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .321 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .090 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 7 pitches seen.264xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .347 on 6 PA) · league .351 · 12 pitches seen.350xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .169 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 11 pitches seen.261xwOBA .356 shrunk (raw .228 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 16 pitches seen.356xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .301 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 16 pitches seen.282xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .620 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 5 pitches seen.314xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .235 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 40 pitches seen.264
vs RHP · 148 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 32%0%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 49%33%
vs RHP · 148 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 66%33%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 76%60%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 70%33%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 65%57%Swings at 50% of 12 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at 46% of 11 pitches · league 60%46%Swings at 44% of 16 pitches · league 24%44%Swings at 25% of 16 pitches · league 34%25%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 40%60%Swings at 23% of 40 pitches · league 32%23%
vs RHP · 148 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Cody Freeman against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%91.3+8″ / +17″.335.34811.4%18.7%26About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup27%83.4+17″ / +6″.320.33315.6%29.6%12About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider14%83.8-4″ / +6″.296.30918.2%31.0%14About league average vs these
Sweeper12%79.7-12″ / +1″.276.28918.4%31.5%10About league average vs these
Curveball5%76.0-9″ / -10″.287.29918.6%31.7%2Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Cody Freeman · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G1023.136.174.182.170.1978.7%4.3%10.8%79.496.90.0%21.1%26.3%
Last 30 G1636.206.250.235.230.24413.9%5.6%10.9%80.698.60.0%21.4%28.6%
90 days1636.206.250.235.230.24413.9%5.6%10.9%80.698.60.0%21.4%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 61%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G56.167.167.167.300.26116.7%0.0%22.2%83.1104.40.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1321.312.421.500.474.3859.5%9.5%15.2%78.8104.46.2%31.2%31.2%
Last 30 G2240.312.405.469.439.29810.0%10.0%13.2%78.4104.53.3%26.7%23.3%
90 days2240.312.405.469.439.29810.0%10.0%13.2%78.4104.53.3%26.7%23.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 13%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G56.167.167.167.300.26116.7%0.0%22.2%83.1104.40.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1544.211.286.316.311.2849.1%6.8%12.9%79.1104.42.9%25.7%28.6%
Last 30 G2576.258.329.348.336.27111.8%7.9%12.1%79.5104.51.7%24.1%25.9%
90 days2576.258.329.348.336.27111.8%7.9%12.1%79.5104.51.7%24.1%25.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 58 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 16%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 7%
Cody Freeman · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating15Poor
Last 100 pitches7trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.309 / .272running 36 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPCutter88.481.3-12.094Double play
Sep 9LHPSlider86.895.914.877Single
Sep 9LHPFastball92.0104.4-20.158Out
Sep 8LHPSinker86.845.240.085Out
Sep 6LHPFastball92.388.93.351Error
Sep 5RHPSinker94.561.117.243Out
Sep 5RHPSinker94.177.60.106Out
Sep 5RHPChangeup84.296.8-4.257Out
Sep 4RHPFastball93.083.580.012Out
Sep 4RHPSinker92.089.32.284Double play
Sep 3LHPFastball94.930.6-51–Sac bunt
Sep 3RHPFastball90.980.3-48.117Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25100000
Sep 10100001
Sep 9211000
Sep 8100000
Sep 6100000
Sep 5400001
Sep 4300010
Sep 3400000
Sep 2411001
Sep 1411001

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.4%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.3%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%20.7%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.4%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.7%
Cody Freeman bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Cody Freeman with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%33.1%43.3%
Whiff%16.6%23.5%
Contact%83.4%76.5%
Chase%45.8%39.4%
wOBA.238.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.3%24.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFContact type
wOBA.300
K%16.8%
BB%6.3%
Whiff%8.8%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%21.6%
Avg EV84.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

36 PA
wOBA.279
xwOBA vs this mix.268against pitches like his
RV/100-0.91
Hard-hit%21.4%
K%18.3%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX6 days' rest
3.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 44.9%45%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 10.0%10%67 strikeouts: 5.7%6%78 strikeouts: 2.8%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.0%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Cody Freeman: every projection we've made →