MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 9Danny Jansen
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedHot
.357wOBA vs RHP.304xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
4.4projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 87.5 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .375 vs league .368 (about even).Fastball 32%Changeup: 31% usage, 82.3 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .358 vs league .352 (about even).Changeup 31%Slider: 20% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .333 vs league .326 (about even).Slider 20%Sweeper: 14% usage, 75.7 mph, -12.6″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Danny Jansen: wOBA .313 vs league .306 (about even).Sweeper 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Danny Jansen's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Danny Jansen's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 75.0 mph at 62°Out: 78.2 mph at 40°Out: 80.9 mph at -1°Out: 103.1 mph at 7°Out: 93.7 mph at 36°Out: 84.2 mph at 77°Out: 96.8 mph at 36°Out: 98.3 mph at -3°Out: 77.8 mph at 48°Double: 99.0 mph at 3°Out: 83.5 mph at 7°Single: 84.7 mph at 0°Single: 71.1 mph at 41°Out: 79.5 mph at 59°Single: 66.7 mph at -50°Out: 90.5 mph at 46°Out: 87.3 mph at 25°Out: 24.2 mph at -73°Out: 98.0 mph at -5°Single: 103.9 mph at 4°Out: 89.5 mph at -11°Out: 98.2 mph at -5°Double: 104.4 mph at 16°Single: 95.6 mph at 10°Out: 92.9 mph at 19°Out: 31.4 mph at 4°Out: 68.7 mph at 62°Single: 101.6 mph at 5°Out: 84.5 mph at 5°Home run: 99.7 mph at 29°Single: 96.4 mph at 7°Out: 93.7 mph at 24°Out: 80.6 mph at 67°Out: 91.8 mph at 60°Single: 105.5 mph at 5°Out: 91.0 mph at 47°Single: 66.5 mph at 21°Out: 95.6 mph at -3°Out: 78.1 mph at -24°Out: 92.5 mph at 21°
35% hit 95+ mph20% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.7%54.0%+2.7
2+ total bases30.3%28.5%+1.8
Home run10.0%9.7%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.7
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Danny Jansen against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%87.5+6″ / +15″.375.36817.5%16.2%9About league average vs these
Changeup31%82.3+17″ / +6″.358.35228.9%28.2%5Little history vs this shape
Slider20%82.5-5″ / +7″.333.32626.6%25.5%4Little history vs this shape
Sweeper14%75.7-13″ / +2″.313.30645.6%44.2%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Danny Jansen · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.100.250.200.296.30916.7%8.3%22.2%91.6103.10.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1534.333.394.500.424.3498.8%2.9%20.8%88.1105.53.6%42.9%25.0%
Last 30 G2245.293.341.512.392.30215.6%2.2%25.0%87.4105.55.7%40.0%22.9%
90 days2245.293.341.512.392.30215.6%2.2%25.0%87.4105.55.7%40.0%22.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 35 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 14%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.500.000.360.3800.0%33.3%0.0%79.184.20.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G815.200.429.200.346.28213.3%20.0%15.0%77.9101.60.0%11.1%0.0%
Last 30 G1429.136.296.273.285.29920.7%13.8%22.0%76.7106.65.6%16.7%22.2%
90 days1429.136.296.273.285.29920.7%13.8%22.0%76.7106.65.6%16.7%22.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 18 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 17%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 28%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.077.333.154.315.33011.1%16.7%17.4%88.2103.10.0%36.4%0.0%
Last 15 G1549.300.404.425.402.33010.2%8.2%19.2%85.6105.52.7%35.1%18.9%
Last 30 G2274.238.324.429.352.30117.6%6.8%23.8%83.8106.65.7%32.1%22.6%
90 days2274.238.324.429.352.30117.6%6.8%23.8%83.8106.65.7%32.1%22.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 15%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 19%
Danny Jansen · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating33Below average
Last 100 pitches54trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.319 / .299running 20 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSweeper80.975.062.010Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.878.240.054Out
Sep 23RHPCutter91.580.9-1.111Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.3103.17.591Out
Sep 22RHPCutter93.893.736.163Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.084.277.010Out
Sep 20RHPCutter86.496.836.261Out
Sep 20RHPFastball99.498.3-3.293Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper81.277.848.067Out
Sep 19RHPSinker95.299.03.442Double
Sep 19RHPCurveball83.683.57.356Fielder's choice
Sep 17RHPSinker91.384.70.226Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300001
Sep 23300010
Sep 22400010
Sep 20400001
Sep 19412010
Sep 17322000
Sep 16411000
Sep 15311010
Sep 13412001
Sep 11311000

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.6%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.0%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%19.3%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.0%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.1%
Danny Jansen bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Danny Jansen with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.1%42.4%
Whiff%22.3%22.2%
Contact%77.7%77.8%
Chase%38.2%39.8%
wOBA.236.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.4%25.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.331
K%22.5%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%23.9%
Avg EV86.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

45 PA
wOBA.357
xwOBA vs this mix.304against pitches like his
RV/1001.18
Hard-hit%28.4%
K%18.8%
BB%7.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.8%36%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.8%17%56 strikeouts: 12.4%12%67 strikeouts: 7.9%8%78 strikeouts: 4.4%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.7%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Curveball1%8672.611.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Danny Jansen: every projection we've made →