MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 1Justin Foscue
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.268wOBA vs RHP.262xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
4.4projected K18%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 87.5 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Justin Foscue: wOBA .358 vs league .368 (about even).Fastball 32%Changeup: 31% usage, 82.3 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Justin Foscue: wOBA .342 vs league .352 (about even).Changeup 31%Slider: 20% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Justin Foscue: wOBA .317 vs league .326 (about even).Slider 20%Sweeper: 14% usage, 75.7 mph, -12.6″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Justin Foscue: wOBA .296 vs league .306 (about even).Sweeper 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Justin Foscue's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Justin Foscue's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.0 mph at 44°Out: 99.4 mph at 19°Single: 86.6 mph at 3°Out: 67.8 mph at -9°Out: 89.7 mph at 20°Single: 68.4 mph at 22°Single: 103.5 mph at 2°Out: 51.5 mph at 8°Out: 95.4 mph at 36°Double: 99.5 mph at -13°Out: 91.4 mph at -6°Single: 99.7 mph at 4°Out: 74.8 mph at 35°Single: 97.2 mph at 12°Out: 84.1 mph at 50°Single: 70.6 mph at -54°Single: 97.6 mph at 6°Out: 99.0 mph at 26°Out: 81.2 mph at 38°Double: 82.4 mph at 15°Out: 96.9 mph at -3°Out: 95.9 mph at -8°Double: 97.5 mph at 11°Single: 95.6 mph at 14°Out: 88.2 mph at 70°Single: 99.5 mph at 1°Out: 81.6 mph at 33°Home run: 107.3 mph at 22°Out: 82.5 mph at -10°Out: 94.8 mph at 37°Home run: 105.7 mph at 25°Out: 90.7 mph at 57°Single: 93.9 mph at 4°Single: 74.5 mph at -43°Out: 86.2 mph at 43°Out: 82.0 mph at 62°Out: 88.2 mph at 38°Out: 103.5 mph at 25°Home run: 100.8 mph at 28°Double: 102.8 mph at 17°
45% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.7%61.1%+3.6
2+ total bases39.3%36.3%+3.0
Home run12.4%11.8%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.8
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Justin Foscue against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%87.5+6″ / +15″.358.36813.9%16.2%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup31%82.3+17″ / +6″.342.35227.9%28.2%4Little history vs this shape
Slider20%82.5-5″ / +7″.317.32625.7%25.5%4Little history vs this shape
Sweeper14%75.7-13″ / +2″.296.30644.4%44.2%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Justin Foscue · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.2560.0%0.0%0.0%70.689.70.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G79.111.111.111.100.14033.3%0.0%36.8%82.196.90.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G1222.095.136.238.164.22118.2%4.5%22.0%89.3103.511.8%41.2%23.5%
90 days2133.156.182.250.191.18830.3%3.0%22.1%85.6103.59.1%31.8%22.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 22 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 9%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.364.417.455.388.27625.0%0.0%18.2%89.0103.50.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1430.407.467.519.465.36423.3%6.7%18.3%90.6103.55.0%55.0%35.0%
Last 30 G2864.362.422.621.459.37921.9%6.2%14.4%89.7107.311.4%43.2%36.4%
90 days55120.306.375.546.403.32524.2%8.3%14.8%89.3111.08.9%40.5%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 79 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.308.357.385.332.27321.4%0.0%15.4%85.3103.50.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1539.333.385.417.381.31225.6%5.1%22.2%88.6103.53.8%50.0%34.6%
Last 30 G3086.291.349.519.384.33820.9%5.8%16.4%89.6107.311.5%42.6%32.8%
90 days60153.271.333.479.357.29525.5%7.2%16.4%88.5111.08.9%38.6%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 101 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 22%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 15%
Justin Foscue · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating41Below average
Last 100 pitches10trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.359 / .308running 51 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCurveball91.591.044.008Out
Sep 24LHPCurveball91.699.419.374Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.586.63.386Single
Sep 22LHPSweeper73.867.8-9.058Out
Sep 20RHPSinker81.689.720.386Out
Sep 20LHPCutter92.168.422.833Single
Sep 16LHPChangeup82.1103.52.479Single
Sep 16RHPSinker92.051.58.126Out
Sep 16LHPSweeper77.595.436.213Out
Sep 16LHPSinker92.999.5-13.235Double
Sep 13LHPCurveball77.291.4-6.184Error
Sep 13LHPChangeup86.199.74.503Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24311000
Sep 22300001
Sep 20211000
Sep 19100001
Sep 16523001
Sep 15200011
Sep 13311001
Sep 12200002
Sep 10100001
Sep 9411010

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.6%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.0%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%19.3%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.0%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.1%
Justin Foscue bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Justin Foscue with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.7%42.4%
Whiff%21.3%22.2%
Contact%78.7%77.8%
Chase%41.3%39.8%
wOBA.241.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.5%25.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.319
K%25.2%
BB%7.0%
Whiff%8.5%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%26.8%
Avg EV88.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

33 PA
wOBA.268
xwOBA vs this mix.262against pitches like his
RV/100-1.01
Hard-hit%24.0%
K%26.1%
BB%7.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.8%36%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.8%17%56 strikeouts: 12.4%12%67 strikeouts: 7.9%8%78 strikeouts: 4.4%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.7%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Curveball1%8672.611.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Justin Foscue: every projection we've made →