MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 9Kaelen Culpepper
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.327wOBA vs RHP.312xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · TEXNathan Eovaldi
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Nathan Eovaldi's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 33% usage, 95.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Kaelen Culpepper: wOBA .348 vs league .348 (about even).Fastball 33%Splitter: 26% usage, 88.1 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +0.8″ rise. Kaelen Culpepper: wOBA .301 vs league .301 (about even).Splitter 26%Curveball: 18% usage, 76.9 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -9.1″ rise. Kaelen Culpepper: wOBA .305 vs league .306 (about even).Curveball 18%Cutter: 16% usage, 91.0 mph, -1.1″ arm side, +10.3″ rise. Kaelen Culpepper: wOBA .331 vs league .331 (about even).Cutter 16%Slider: 6% usage, 85.7 mph, -6.2″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Kaelen Culpepper: wOBA .299 vs league .299 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kaelen Culpepper's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kaelen Culpepper's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 70.6 mph at -47°Out: 89.0 mph at 26°Out: 66.6 mph at 12°Single: 84.7 mph at 12°Out: 81.1 mph at 35°Out: 81.8 mph at 42°Out: 92.7 mph at -15°Out: 70.2 mph at 84°Out: 99.5 mph at -2°Single: 101.1 mph at 4°Out: 71.2 mph at 63°Single: 99.3 mph at 14°Out: 96.6 mph at -19°Out: 94.9 mph at -9°Out: 87.6 mph at 46°Out: 102.5 mph at -21°Single: 71.3 mph at 26°Double: 90.6 mph at 18°Out: 97.0 mph at 23°Out: 88.2 mph at -39°Out: 91.2 mph at 60°Single: 92.0 mph at 14°Out: 68.6 mph at -24°Out: 76.6 mph at -4°Out: 93.4 mph at 29°Out: 83.5 mph at 38°Out: 100.8 mph at -2°Out: 72.6 mph at 5°Out: 70.2 mph at -13°Single: 106.5 mph at 4°Double: 97.8 mph at 21°Out: 90.3 mph at 63°Double: 108.4 mph at 5°Out: 39.9 mph at 53°Out: 83.0 mph at 14°Single: 95.8 mph at 13°Out: 57.3 mph at 3°Out: 68.6 mph at 87°Out: 67.8 mph at -16°Out: 84.0 mph at 46°
28% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.7%56.4%+0.3
2+ total bases30.4%30.9%-0.5
Home run7.4%9.0%-1.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kaelen Culpepper hits
Where they meet

.286 xwOBA for Kaelen Culpepper in the spots Nathan Eovaldi throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .302 (-16 points). His best spot against righties is down-left, and Nathan Eovaldi puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Nathan Eovaldi · where he throws to right-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing9%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 28% per swing8%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing10%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing7%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 37% per swing10%33% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 64% per swing33%
All · 316 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters11%6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%18% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18%34% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters34%
Splitter · 109 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13%49% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters49%
Curveball · 76 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%24% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters24%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters26% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters26%
Fastball · 58 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%25% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters25%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters14%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%30% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Cutter · 44 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%20% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters20%28% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters28%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%12% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%
Sinker · 25 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Kaelen Culpepper · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .008 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 8 pitches seen.254xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .094 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 11 pitches seen.254xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .548 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 11 pitches seen.304xwOBA .400 shrunk (raw .573 on 4 PA) · league .342 · 10 pitches seen.400xwOBA .408 shrunk (raw .442 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 22 pitches seen.408xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .306 on 3 PA) · league .321 · 14 pitches seen.318xwOBA .413 shrunk (raw .729 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 9 pitches seen.413xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .170 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 17 pitches seen.284xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .500 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 17 pitches seen.344xwOBA .446 shrunk (raw .584 on 6 PA) · league .377 · 32 pitches seen.446xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .321 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 21 pitches seen.291xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .314 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.273xwOBA .188 shrunk (raw .137 on 20 PA) · league .274 · 88 pitches seen.188
vs RHP · 279 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 20%17%Whiff 57% of 7 swings · league 19%57%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 0% of 18 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 28%13%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 24%13%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 32%36%Whiff 44% of 45 swings · league 49%44%
vs RHP · 279 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 63% of 8 pitches · league 62%63%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 72%55%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 66%64%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 70%60%Swings at 82% of 22 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 50% of 14 pitches · league 70%50%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 65%67%Swings at 59% of 17 pitches · league 68%59%Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 60%65%Swings at 25% of 32 pitches · league 24%25%Swings at 38% of 21 pitches · league 34%38%Swings at 58% of 19 pitches · league 40%58%Swings at 51% of 88 pitches · league 32%51%
vs RHP · 279 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kaelen Culpepper against each of Nathan Eovaldi's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball33%95.6+13″ / +14″.348.34812.5%14.2%21About league average vs these
Splitter26%88.1+13″ / +1″.301.30130.4%32.9%9About league average vs these
Curveball18%76.9-9″ / -9″.305.30628.6%30.5%4Little history vs this shape
Cutter16%91.0-1″ / +10″.331.33121.7%24.1%11About league average vs these
Slider6%85.7-6″ / +2″.299.29929.0%31.2%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kaelen Culpepper · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.111.200.111.160.18830.0%0.0%21.1%85.099.50.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1439.171.256.229.228.23720.5%7.7%25.0%84.8108.40.0%29.6%22.2%
Last 30 G2973.273.342.394.333.32319.2%6.8%22.4%87.9108.43.9%35.3%29.4%
90 days3074.269.338.388.329.32618.9%6.8%22.3%87.9108.43.8%34.6%30.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 23%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G26.000.167.000.117.20133.3%0.0%14.3%75.489.00.0%0.0%66.7%
Last 15 G918.294.333.353.308.29711.1%0.0%12.2%84.6102.50.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2143.282.326.359.303.27025.6%2.3%26.8%86.1103.80.0%24.1%48.3%
90 days2246.286.326.429.327.27423.9%2.2%26.5%86.0103.83.1%25.0%46.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 32 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 28%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.071.188.071.144.19331.2%0.0%18.2%81.899.50.0%11.1%33.3%
Last 15 G1557.212.281.269.254.25617.5%5.3%20.2%84.7108.40.0%26.2%28.6%
Last 30 G30116.276.336.381.322.30321.6%5.2%24.2%87.2108.42.5%31.2%36.2%
90 days31120.275.333.404.328.30620.8%5.0%24.0%87.2108.43.6%31.0%36.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 84 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 25%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 11%
Kaelen Culpepper · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating42Below average
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.328 / .309running 19 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 15LHPSinker91.770.6-47.176Double play
Sep 15LHPSinker92.889.026.065Out
Sep 11LHPFastball94.266.612.237Force out
Sep 11RHPSlider89.584.712.581Single
Sep 9RHPCurveball79.681.135.046Out
Sep 9RHPCurveball79.781.842.005Out
Sep 9RHPSlider82.492.7-15.192Double play
Sep 9RHPSlider86.270.284.003Out
Sep 8RHPFastball96.099.5-2.327Out
Sep 7RHPSlider86.8101.14.489Single
Sep 7RHPChangeup90.371.263.000Out
Sep 7RHPSinker95.899.314.811Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 15300001
Sep 12200001
Sep 11411001
Sep 9400000
Sep 8300002
Sep 7422000
Sep 6300001
Sep 5523000
Sep 4411010
Sep 2500002

Two strikes

Nathan Eovaldi TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Nathan Eovaldi with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter39%48%24.2%20.9%21.3%
Curveball24%27%32.3%19.2%20.7%
Fastball17%14%35.3%30.8%18.3%
Cutter14%11%16.7%15.0%18.7%
Slider1%1%–0.0%21.4%
Kaelen Culpepper bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kaelen Culpepper with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.6%43.3%
Whiff%19.9%23.5%
Contact%80.1%76.5%
Chase%42.5%39.4%
wOBA.237.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.4%27.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.320
K%21.9%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%11.7%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%24.0%
Avg EV87.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

74 PA
wOBA.327
xwOBA vs this mix.312against pitches like his
RV/1000.58
Hard-hit%24.3%
K%19.7%
BB%5.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nathan EovaldiRHP · TEX vs MIN4 days' rest
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.2%9%78 strikeouts: 5.5%6%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 69% (red bars) · under: 31%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.1%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%14.0%
Velo86.6
BTB Stuff93
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Splitter38%11088.616.3%
Curveball26%7276.221.0%
Fastball17%7994.312.1%
Cutter14%10189.59.1%
Sinker3%9693.511.1%
Slider2%9286.911.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Aug 7869%9%36%.243
Jul 319419%14%46%.538
Jul 259133%12%17%.156

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nathan Eovaldi TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kaelen Culpepper: every projection we've made →